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It will turn briefly springlike tomorrow. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, it will turn cooler on Friday with temperatures topping out in the lower 60s. The weekend will be even cooler with highs in the upper 50s.

Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall.

Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -5.99 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.013 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.4° (1.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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Our orchards are really got hit the other night. Many think they lost of 60% of the crop this year thanks to that hard freeze. It could be a really bad year for them since the blossoms all came out earlier with the heat, now this week… It is time to warm up now. How about we just get some seasonable weather for more than a day? No heat nor air conditioning needed for a bit? How about it Mother Nature?

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Models correcting stronger with the blocking to start May as this El Niño is developing at a record pace for this time of year. So the growing El Niño combining with other elements will cap the high end warmth potential for a while. We saw something like this back in the spring of 2023 following the April record 90°+ heat with that El Niño which formed early also. 
 

New run

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Old run

IMG_6149.thumb.png.a7ca1bdea49919706aa97e2f7b7f9d18.png

 

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models correcting stronger with the blocking to start May as this El Niño is developing at a record pace for this time of year. So the growing El Niño combining with other elements will cap the high end warmth potential for a while. We saw something like this back in the spring of 2023 following the April record 90°+ heat with that El Niño which formed early also. 
 

New run

IMG_6148.thumb.png.fa0e56c9d2f19b0f9a4c6101bba68f0e.png

Old run

IMG_6149.thumb.png.a7ca1bdea49919706aa97e2f7b7f9d18.png

 

Absolutely horrific 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Absolutely horrific 

Both the 2023 and 2026 early developing El Niños are having spring crop damage from cold following early record warmth. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1843-05-01 through 2026-04-22DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)

                  Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

 

4/13 92 in 2023 86 in 1977 84 in 2018+
4/14 93 in 2023 89 in 2026 88 in 2022+
4/15 91 in 2026 88 in 1960 87 in 1941
4/16 92 in 2002 90 in 2026 89 in 1896

 

 

 

 

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47 / 44 sunny.  Gorgeous day and likely the warmest lwo to mid 70s for the next 10.  Rainy weekend trending >1.00 area wide mainly Sat pm into and overnight.   Trough east keeps us at or below normal and possibly wetter especially Tue - Fri where another >1.00 inch could fall.  Beyond there modration and heights build east between May 5 - 9th.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1996)
NYC: 86 (2007)
LGA: 85 (2007)
JFK: 87 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1933)
NYC: 29 (1872)
LGA: 36 (1986)
JFK: 34 (1986)

Historical:

 

Historical:

 

1885 - The city of Denver, CO, was in the midst of a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 24 hours, and at Idaho Springs CO produced 32 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1910 - The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, CA, hit 100 degrees to establish an April record for the city. (The Weather Channel)

 

1948: A three block long section was devastated at the edge of Ionia, Iowa in Chickasaw County by an estimated F4 tornado. Six homes and a church were leveled, and nine other homes were severely damaged. Two deaths occurred in the collapse of the Huffman Implement Store. Overall, the tornado killed five people, injured 25, and caused $250,000 in damages. An F2 tornado touched down initially 5 miles northeast of Rochester. Barns, silos, windmills, and machinery were destroyed on four farms as this tornado tracked north.

 

1961: Severe weather struck the south suburbs of Chicago, IL. Joliet, IL reported an inch of hail with some hailstones the size of golf balls. Heavy rain from these storms also resulted in some flooding. A tornado struck the town of Peotone resulting in damage to nearly every building with damage also reported in Lorenzo and Wilton Center, IL. Estimated damage was $9 million with about 30,000 structures affected. 

 

1983 - A mini-blizzard produced sixteen inches of snow at Laramie, WY, including a foot of snow in just eight hours during the night. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Atlantic Coast Region produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 67 mph at Anderson SC. The high winds destroyed two planes at the airport, and the large hail damaged fifty other planes, and severely damaged twenty-three greenhouses. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - An intense winter-like storm brought thunderstorms to southern California, and produced snow in some of the higher elevations. Nine girls at Tustin CA were injured when lightning struck the tree under which their softball team had taken shelter from the rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Salina, KS, was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 105 degrees. The high of 105 degrees established an April record for the state of Kansas. A total of eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas and western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Lake McKenzie TX and at Garden City TX, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Gage OK. Thunderstorms drenched southeast Minnesota with heavy rain, with 6.6 inches reported northwest of Browndale. High temperatures were mostly in the 80s across the central U.S. The morning low of 67 degrees at Fargo ND and afternoon high of 91 degrees were both records for the date. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1999: On Friday, April 23, 1999, a horrific hailstorm moved southeast from Pennsylvania across Garrett County, Maryland and into the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia. It had weakened some as it crossed Garrett County and the Allegany Front, but as it passed east of Keyser, West Virginia, hail began to increase in size once again. By the time it reached Capon Bridge in eastern Hampshire County, West Virginia, the size of the hail had grown from golf balls to baseballs. As it moved into Frederick County, VA, the hail storm continued to grow dropping golf ball size hail in a swath now reaching from the north of Winchester, south to Stephen City (about 10 miles). Hailstones grew to the size of Grapefruit (4 inches in diameter) east of Winchester. The storm continued east through Clarke County, southern Loudoun, and northern Fauquier doing considerable damage to Middleburg, then across Fairfax County hitting Centreville, Chantilly, Fairfax, Burke, Springfield, and Lorton with golf ball size to baseball size hail. It crossed the Potomac River and weakened slightly. It moved across northern Charles, clipped southern Prince Georges and then into Calvert County with 1 inch to 1.5-inch diameter hail and onto the Chesapeake Bay continuing southeast to the ocean. The damage left behind was incredible. In Northern Virginia alone, it amounted to over $50 million in losses to public and private properties. Some communities saw a third of the homes with siding and roof damage. Some required total replacement. Windows were broken, cars dented, and windshields smashed. Piles of shredded plant debris were left on the ground in the storm path. In about 6 hours of time, this one thunderstorm, moving at about 50 mph, did $75 million in damage. There have been other severe hail storms to hit this area before, but none to cause this much damage to property.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models correcting stronger with the blocking to start May as this El Niño is developing at a record pace for this time of year. So the growing El Niño combining with other elements will cap the high end warmth potential for a while. We saw something like this back in the spring of 2023 following the April record 90°+ heat with that El Niño which formed early also. 
 

New run

IMG_6148.thumb.png.fa0e56c9d2f19b0f9a4c6101bba68f0e.png

Old run

IMG_6149.thumb.png.a7ca1bdea49919706aa97e2f7b7f9d18.png

 

Music to my ears

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Music to my ears

Everyone has their own subjective likes and dislikes when it comes to the weather.

I liked cooler and wetter in the summer when it used to keep the big beach crowds away from Long Beach. Since finding parking spaces was always a challenge there.

So 1996 and 2009 are two of my favorite summers living in Long Beach. I didn’t mind having several days which were compete washouts since all the perfect days in the 70s and low 80s made up for it.

 

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