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It will turn briefly springlike tomorrow. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, it will turn cooler on Friday with temperatures topping out in the lower 60s. The weekend will be even cooler with highs in the upper 50s.

Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall.

Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -5.99 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.013 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.4° (1.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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Our orchards are really got hit the other night. Many think they lost of 60% of the crop this year thanks to that hard freeze. It could be a really bad year for them since the blossoms all came out earlier with the heat, now this week… It is time to warm up now. How about we just get some seasonable weather for more than a day? No heat nor air conditioning needed for a bit? How about it Mother Nature?

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Models correcting stronger with the blocking to start May as this El Niño is developing at a record pace for this time of year. So the growing El Niño combining with other elements will cap the high end warmth potential for a while. We saw something like this back in the spring of 2023 following the April record 90°+ heat with that El Niño which formed early also. 
 

New run

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Old run

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