Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I noticed this too. Especially the GFS.  I'm not completely sold on it, but it's been steadily backing off the -NAO's blocking. 00z constructed a 564+ dm warm sector ballooned to the southern Lakes, E to our doorstop next Thur/Fri. That's not really a cold anomaly - it is in fact still a very warm one relative to April.   Even if that warm air doesn't spill in here, it's not like it's aching hands on the cool side, either.  

The other models are also backing off of the -NAO's, but still are colder in complexion.  The Canadian being the most happy.  The Euro has other days that are sneaky mild. 

Overall, the influence of a -NAO circulation mode is coherent. However, the depth of the negative thickness ( the blue(cold) vs warmer(red) lines) have been easing off a little per runs

This happens every spring. A few folks get all worried about cold and rain and no warmth and it ends up a lot of sunny dry, warm afternoons 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

There will be a lot of that for folks along the coasts . When you get cold SST’s their springs are not good 

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully this verifies

That would be a giant FU

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This happens every spring. A few folks get all worried about cold and rain and no warmth and it ends up a lot of sunny dry, warm afternoons 

Mmm...  slow down there,

 

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro AI goes wild April 27th 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That would be a giant FU

It's like Quantum Mechanics sent particles back in time to excoriate you for your arrogant pop off, "we're going to be saying a lot of GWDLs next week."

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's like Quantum Mechanics sent particles back in time to excoriate you for your arrogant pop off, "we're going to be saying a lot of GWDLs next week."

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

[metagraphica]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

Hoping we do get 3 or 4 hours below freezing Tuesday AM to kill of some of the black flies that are already buzzing around. Seems like the years that we do get a nice Mid-April freeze after the first hatchings, we then have significantly fewer black flies for the rest of the season.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

It seems like relative to every pattern ... results are +  

Whether it is .001 of a single degree F, or +10 Fs, +'s are sort of a baked in ( no pun intended ) consequence of being in a +d(C)   where C denotes climate. 

But it's not just temperature?   seriously...I see something subtle in the circumstances, too.  Today is a perfect example. Right now, it is 69 F here... we are about to go above 70 F. 

Yet, looking at the satellite and WPC's surface synopsis, this appears to be a backside cyclone scenario.   The strata entrails and scuddies are moving NE-SW...  and there's regions of pancaking coming d-slope and evaporating as they come.  

Meanwhile, the main/real polar boundary is situated up in S Canada.  I don't recall ever seeing cyclone mechanics closed off like this, INSIDE a warm sector. 

Much less... in April

These are odd circumstances.  These kind of idiosyncratic things... I just have an Aspergery kind of memory about weather situations since I was apparently designated by birth to waste a life with a Meteorological talent that will provide nothing for anyone  ha   ( I'm like the Michigan Jay Frog of weather minutia ).  Anyway, I keep having to step back over this shit and go, "what in the f is happening here". 

Things are just behaving differently ...whether it shows up in the thermometers or not. And they're just under the radar oddities, too subtle for most to even be aware... Besides, who the fuck is complaining or getting spooked by 70 on April 17 in a "cold sector" behind a cyclone inside a warm sector ... Too nice to care.   It's just unknowable to them. 

[Ginx snewx]

Wow beautiful summer week. It was all a dream for a long time 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Hoping we do get 3 or 4 hours below freezing Tuesday AM to kill of some of the black flies that are already buzzing around. Seems like the years that we do get a nice Mid-April freeze after the first hatchings, we then have significantly fewer black flies for the rest of the season.

maybe even kill off some ticks 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It seems like relative to every pattern ... results are +  

Whether it is .001 of a single degree F, or +10 Fs, +'s are sort of a baked in ( no pun intended ) consequence of being in a +d(C)   where C denotes climate. 

But it's not just temperature?   seriously...I see something subtle in the circumstances, too.  Today is a perfect example. Right now, it is 69 F here... we are about to go above 70 F. 

Yet, looking at the satellite and WPC's surface synopsis, this appears to be a backside cyclone scenario.   The strata entrails and scuddies are moving NE-SW...  and there's regions of pancaking coming d-slope and evaporating as they come.  

Meanwhile, the main/real polar boundary is situated up in S Canada.  I don't recall ever seeing cyclone mechanics closed off like this, INSIDE a warm sector. 

Much less... in April

These are odd circumstances.  These kind of idiosyncratic things... I just have an Aspergery kind of memory about weather situations since I was apparently designated by birth to waste a life with a Meteorological talent that will provide nothing for anyone  ha   ( I'm like the Michigan Jay Frog of weather minutia ).  Anyway, I'm I keep having to step back over this shit and going, "what in the f is happening here". 

Things are just behaving differently ...whether it shows up in the thermometers or not. And they're just under the radar, too subtle for most to even be aware... for one thing, who the fuck is complaining or getting spooked by 70 on April 17 in a "cold sector" behind a cyclone inside a warm sector ... Too nice to care.   It's just unknowable to them. 

Reminds me of a few Aprils ago (or maybe it was early May) but we had that dome of well below average 925/850mb temps overhead and yet we where still putting out ~ average. 

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wow beautiful summer week. It was all a dream for a long time 

No kidding, sitting with the family in the adirondack chairs overlooking the ocean at the Windjammer yesterday.  Decent crowd for April on the beach. 

  

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

No kidding, sitting with the family in the adirondack chairs overlooking the ocean at the Windjammer yesterday.  Decent crowd for April on the beach. 

  

Love me some Windjammer food. View ain't bad either 

[Ginx snewx]

EPS is very chilly. Maybe 1 day of of warmth. 50s next 10 days Euro agree GFS not much better All told we probably squeeze out a couple nice days but temps will struggle with destructive sunshine. Huge pattern change