Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[Damage In Tolland]

And why is that one brick out , just laying there ?

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

yes

We pray it last all Summer 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And why is that one brick out , just laying there ?

I noticed that too. Just all around troubling.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We pray it last all Summer 

Summer of dews is approaching.

[Typhoon Tip]

If we don't start seeing some sky-lights opening in this pan - dimensional shit show on morning satellite I may be inclined to take the under on machine guidance.  MET/MAV are still 68-73, and it is early ... so we'll see. 

Incidentally ... both are 78 to 84 tomorrow and Wed along the BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT axis.  actually, MET's 73 in NH on Wed.  

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If we don't start seeing some sky-lights opening in this pan - dimensional shit show on morning satellite I may be inclined to take the under on machine guidance.  MET/MAV are still 68-73, and it is early ... so we'll see. 

Incidentally ... both are 78 to 84 tomorrow and Wed along the BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT axis.  actually, MET's 73 in NH on Wed.  

was just thinking the same thing  

In fact, the heat just kicked on 

But watch in about 3 hours or so we'll see rapid breaks and temperatures will soar. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If we don't start seeing some sky-lights opening in this pan - dimensional shit show on morning satellite I may be inclined to take the under on machine guidance.  MET/MAV are still 68-73, and it is early ... so we'll see. 

Incidentally ... both are 78 to 84 tomorrow and Wed along the BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT axis.  actually, MET's 73 in NH on Wed.  

I was a bit underwhelmed awakening to cloudy and 45.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

was just thinking the same thing  

In fact, the heat just kicked on 

But watch in about 3 hours or so we'll see rapid breaks and temperatures will soar. 

Need the sun...   WPC's analyzing a warm boundary danging NW/SE over mid PA/W NY.  That's 600 mi away.   It may mix out and reposition NE. Sometimes that happens where you get warm front jump.  Could...  It's one of those situations where there's a WSW flow at all levels so limited mechanical resistance.  If not and it moves the distance tho, we have a ways to go before we get into any kind of air mass latency assist.  

That means we're wholly dependent on the sun to recover from this 47 to 50 F blegh. 

Also, folks should count on Thursday being an eastern region wide bust because Mets try to fight (unsuccessfully) the inevitability of 150 mb deep shallow slab of BD incontinence. Heh.  The upshot is that there are some models not as cold porn as the GFS' lvl details and if one of those worked out, you get pleasantly surprised.  

 

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Need to the sun...   WPC's analyzing the/or a warm boundary in mid PA/W NY.    It may mix out and reposition NE, or it moves the distance.  Either way, we have a ways to go before we get into any air mass latency.   That means we're wholly dependent on the sun to recover from this 47 to 50 F blegh. 

 

yup definitely going to need sun for sure, probably especially to our southwest because there doesn't seem to be much in the way of momentum to really blow this warm front through. Haven't looked at any guidance since Friday but I do recall on Friday thinking there was a chance we could be mucked in a bit longer on Monday. Could be a day where like Danbury, CT is able to just get into sun/warmer airmass and pull out a 73 while most everyone else is barely into the lower 60's. 

But idk...there might be an opportunity to start ridding of this lower cloud deck late morning

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The fact that I keep posting it here is just mind boggling . Something is not right with me.

FYP.

[Typhoon Tip]

Too bad we don't have better lapse rates Tuesday afternoon because that looks modestly interesting given the other synoptic parameters. 

W to WNW at 700 mb, SW below 850mb is a directional +helicity.  About 20 to 25 kts +d(v) between 925 and 500 so not great speed shear.  But I said "modestly"  heh

But a front is approaching into a DP anomaly that pushed its way up to S VT/NH latitudes in most guidance.  > 60 F, with ongoing temperatures 80+.   This is a June CAPEd air mass smeared up under an impulse cutting through N VT/NH late in the afternoon and evening, arriving after the morning and early afternoon were baked under more sun than clouds.  

As an aside, tomorrow is going to seem out of place. Anachronistic because the landscape is still lagged lagged so far behind what people typically associate with air of summer aroma.

Anyway, the Euro still sniffing out enough instability and a mechanics to ignite broken lines of coherent convective QPF structures in these charts.

[CoastalWx]

It’s also windy AF out. But finally some dim sun.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Too bad we don't have better lapse rates Tuesday afternoon because that looks modestly interesting given the other synoptic parameters. 

W to WNW at 700 mb, SW below 850mb is a directional +helicity.  About 20 to 25 kts +d(v) between 925 and 500 so not great.  But I said "modestly"  heh

But a front is approaching into a DP anomaly that pushed its way up to S VT/NH latitudes in most guidance.  > 60 F, with ongoing temperatures 80+.   This is a June CAPEd air mass smeared up under an impulse cutting through N VT/NH late in the afternoon and evening, arriving after the morning and early afternoon were baked under more sun than clouds.  

As an aside, tomorrow is going to seem out of place. Anachronistic because the landscape is still lagged lagged so far behind what people typically associate with air of summer aroma.

Anyway, the Euro still sniffing out enough instability and a mechanics to ignite broken lines of coherent convective QPF structures in these charts.

Hi res has some big boomers out that way too. And I don’t just mean retirees from NYC.

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Too bad we don't have better lapse rates Tuesday afternoon because that looks modestly interesting given the other synoptic parameters. 

W to WNW at 700 mb, SW below 850mb is a directional +helicity.  About 20 to 25 kts +d(v) between 925 and 500 so not great speed shear.  But I said "modestly"  heh

But a front is approaching into a DP anomaly that pushed its way up to S VT/NH latitudes in most guidance.  > 60 F, with ongoing temperatures 80+.   This is a June CAPEd air mass smeared up under an impulse cutting through N VT/NH late in the afternoon and evening, arriving after the morning and early afternoon were baked under more sun than clouds.  

As an aside, tomorrow is going to seem out of place. Anachronistic because the landscape is still lagged lagged so far behind what people typically associate with air of summer aroma.

Anyway, the Euro still sniffing out enough instability and a mechanics to ignite broken lines of coherent convective QPF structures in these charts.

Big difference in lapse rates on NAM versus GFS tomorrow. NAM keeps feeding in steeper lapse rates throughout the day while the GFS weakens them a bit before another surge of steeper lapse rates build in. 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Summer of dews is approaching.

We will see... either way I hope this Summer goes by quick.. Summer sucks once we go above 85 unless dews are low

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Big difference in lapse rates on NAM versus GFS tomorrow. NAM keeps feeding in steeper lapse rates throughout the day while the GFS weakens them a bit before another surge of steeper lapse rates build in. 

   ...Northeast...

   Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
   evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
   around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
   deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
   support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if the Marginal gets extended E and a smaller Slight region gets embedded..

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

   ...Northeast...

   Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
   evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
   around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
   deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
   support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if the Marginal gets extended E and smaller Slight region gets added..

Models have been hinting at this potential for the past 7-8 days with very little wavering...pretty impressive to see.

I wouldn't be surprised if that got extended a bit east as well. One downside though is the overall forcing doesn't appear particularly strong. What this is going to do is likely negate this from producing scattered thunderstorm activity within the region as a whole. The best likelihood is probably going to be across like VT/NH/northern MA where there may be some better forcing and also on the edge of the stronger llvl airmass/theta-e gradient. Probably see at least one cluster roll through here. 

Maybe differential heating can pop some stuff elsewhere