Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that’s CT

 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Door and breeze potential next week for a couple of

days but overall looks nice. 

Very weak signals outside of Maine and the cape.

[Typhoon Tip]

hehhhhh   I would encourage using larger hemispheric basis for determining back door potential in this case. 

I realize the modeling consensus - for now - is putting a Euro like solution as an outlier, but I really argue that a Euro like solution has a ton of support from both that larger synoptic perspective, but also in in the season trend. 

We've been dealing with a PV anomaly of varying strength.... averaging near 100 or 90 W by 60 N, for months. In all models, Euro combined, that still there out to 300+ hrs.  That has been at times mirrored across the conterminous by warm heights S of ~40N. Larger gradient results. The flow between physically/necessarily faster than normal at mid and upper levels.  

Moving a stream of air faster than normal from Lake Superior -ish to the Maritime of Canada, is a very BD prone mean.  That why we've seen a buck shot of BD's ... so it seems.  I can't say this for sure, but it "seems" to me that we are above normal incidences therein, relative to date.   I don't know if there is any climatology for numbers of BD, per date. So this is largely conjecture on my part.   Be whatever that may be, I just base it on anecdotal accounting having suffered the vicissitudes of New England springs for that past 45 years of my life   jesus.  

Anyway, being a bit flowering with rhetoric here but I think there's enough precedence both in spring climo, seasonal trend in play, and synoptic observable construct at large scales, not to be overly confident next week. 

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

That would be nice tho...

So far we are spits and starts of green up around this N. Middlezex Co region.  Lawns have some patches. The forsythia and lilac buds are swollen.  Some of the random shrubbery have green-ish tints to the still barren stems.  All large species trees are in nuclear hibernation - not buying it... 

We need the nights to stop with this < 35 bullshit.   Just give us 40 for fuck sake.  You know?  And make it stick.  40 to 52 with highs 60 to 70+ with this solar should finally tune up the lawn mowers.

[Ginx snewx]

45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Why would that be better than going from 1950 onward like Tip’s original post?

 

41 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It wouldn't 

Because sst datasets start in 2002 . Saying how much the earth warmed should include the ocean 

[Ginx snewx]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2007-2016? 

Ssts are 07 to 16 earth temps are 95 to 2025

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I did not use it incorrectly.

Those are the straight up global anomalies, using an expanded data set because in scientific principle, denser sample sizes are better - when also stretched out over the longer term, exposes trends that have more confidence.

UNLIKE what you are providing in your poorly thought out rebuke, using scanter sizes. 

Ocean temps don't matter I guess. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ocean temps don't matter I guess. 

The one thing to keep in mind with using ocean temps (especially present or very recently) are the changes ongoing within the PDO domain, AMO, and of course ENSO region. But alot of studies and data have shown SSTs have increased over the years (hence the development of the RONI to incorporate this signal). It is also very likely that we are now headed towards the negative phase of the AMO so naturally we *should* begin seeing the Atlantic cool. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ocean temps don't matter I guess. 

They do. 

But the purpose of that was the atmosphere. 

You're extension of which does not invalidate it -

[Typhoon Tip]

Aside from the fact, the critique is misplaced.   We in the Met and Climate community, who are not assholes and/or just fucking morons, already are aware that the oceans have absorbed 90+% of the warming that began actually since the Industrial Revolution. The oceans are intrinsic as a heat sink and modulator.   Therefore, representing these warming(cooling ) graphics, respectively, already has that consideration embedded geo-physically.  

 

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Aside from the fact, the critique is misplaced.   We in the Met and Climate community, who are not assholes and/or just fucking morons, already are aware that the oceans have absorbed 90+% of the warming that began actually since the Industrial Revolution. The oceans are intrinsic as a heat sink and modulator.   Therefore, representing these warming(cooling ) graphics, respectively, already has that consideration embedded geo-physically.  

 

We all know the earth is warming. No shit. Point being since 1995 combined with ocean its slower than what you posted I can manipulate data too Tip. Why the random 1950 to 2020? Let's be real  you were looking for maximum effect in your post. I am one of the few who actually read your soliloquy daily, as you noted to Wiz earlier. Its not the first time you post random maps with no explanation 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Welp ... I was wrong about March when it comes to predicting the product result, below.  I had presumed recently that we'd result a more obvious local geographic ( 'local' relative to the whole world) cool zone/island anomaly relative to the whole "inferno" that is clearly and coherently, unarguably the product's character below... eh hm.  Said island had been a persistent leitmotif since late last autumn... 

Still, you know, it really didn't sensibly come off that way?  I recall seeing March colder than the whole country - in fairness I think what is actually going on is that this product below is the "anomaly".  What we experience was a warm anomaly, but just not as demonstrative or obviously so as everywhere else... SO, in that vein and sense it might still qualify.  hmm  'Sides,   I've been quite right about every other month since October...so, meh.  That's a decent grade in anticipating these temperature layouts, nonetheless.   Also, having that impressively deep cold garland lording over top the Canadian Shield while there's a veritable quasar spanning the conterminous U.S., definitely helps explain why we've been getting these wild 40 to as much as 50+ F air mass whiplashes, too.

Anyway, here is the tabulation and mean for March provided by https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

A fixed, even (0.5C) scale shows our “cooler” area a little better.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Very weak signals outside of Maine and the cape.

You'll door for sure.

[dendrite]

Fossil Fuel Fridays!

LFG

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Fossil Fuel Fridays!

LFG

Party at the strait of hormuz.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Versus 1951 to 2020 who picked these random years

Doesn't really change anything using 1991-2020.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Party at the strait of hormuz.

Iran doing their best to reverse the Keeling curve

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

We all know the earth is warming. No shit. Point being since 1995 combined with ocean its slower than what you posted I can manipulate data too Tip. Why the random 1950 to 2020? Let's be real  you were looking for maximum effect in your post. I am one of the few who actually read your soliloquy daily, as you noted to Wiz earlier. Its not the first time you post random maps with no explanation 

You are logically flawed everywhere ...and then asking others to 'get real' with respect and regard to your reasoning.

got it

Firstly, there is no data manipulation.  That is a petty interpretive bs thing you do where you think people have some ulterior motive or agenda.   Wrong in this case...   I set that to be 1951 to 2020. That is all I did.  It is not used for any other purpose, as that post clearly has no other purpose, than to expand the to denser sample size.   That's just good science.

Secondly, there is no logical reason or necessity to combine ocean, when the atmosphere is hugely modulated by the ocean.  If you wanna get into a sciency discussion about the ocean modulation physics, that's certainly a valid and worthwhile engagement.  It does nothing to invalidate the state of the atmosphere.  The product exists for reason.

Thirdly, using words like "random" further exposes you rwill to criticize before consideration and higher reasoning.

Fourthly, I wrote 2 fuckin' paragraphs with explanation in that missive...

This is plebeian argument at this point... I'm out

 

 

[MJO812]

Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat .

[CT Valley Snowman]

KFIT should hit 70 easily, already 64 there.  

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat .

Coney Island? 

[SouthCoastMA]

53.6°

Will be difficult getting past the mid 50s here until Tuesday

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat .

None of that has verified this spring....

[CoastalWx]

64

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

None of that has verified this spring....

A lot of models are developing blocking now. Seems to have legs.

[Damage In Tolland]

Those indicies charts have been awful all winter and spring. They’re not usable to make any type of predictions or forecast. Blocking in Mayorch can lead to big EC ridging and warm/dry

[SouthCoastMA]

Might be overdue for a week long wheel o'reah at some point this spring

[metagraphica]

29 to 57 so far.  Those mid 60's further inland look nice.

[ineedsnow]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat .

Unless your swimming or at the beach the heat is pointless. Never understood how People like it.. 60 to 70 would be perfect in summer.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Might be overdue for a week long wheel o'reah at some point this spring

I haven't seen an actual spring cut off like we used to do in the mid 2000s probably since then. 

The last time was a cut-off on 'roids: May 2005.   It wasn't "a" cut-off.  It was an initial variant, that kept getting a new N stream parcel loading into the backside.  The first in the series weakened and acted like it was going to beta-drift away, but then the reload grabbed it and it retrograded.  This recurred a couple more times.  So it was kind of like 4 consecutive ones with lull pauses between them.  Staying cold. No sun. Each one was more loaded with "o'reah" than Montezuma's Revenge. 

Actually ... from a purely Meteorological dorkatudal-doo it was a pretty spectacular.  There was IP and mangled aggregates mixed at times up in the Worcester Hills.   There were three or four different accelerations of the NEesterly wind field during each re-invigoration of the coastal storm that would rotate back when said parcels reloaded.   Winds gusted 45 mph.  Sheets of 38 to 44F rain... The whole thing took like 2.5 to 3 weeks to finally kick out. 

Lesser, singular events with a cut-off in April were more common in the 1980s and '90s.  Seems we've had a dearth of those in last decade?