3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[TSSN+]

Arw/Arw2 0z runs pretty much duds. Would be a marginal risk at best with those looks. Welp guess we will see what the morning brings. 

[pazzo83]

53 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Oh so jumping ship over the HRRR isn’t just limited to winter storms? 

if there is an opportunity to call bust or jump ship, we will do it!

[pazzo83]

20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Any earlier day stuff always saps  the strength of the later day stuff around DC.  If this is one line only later afternoon then it’s bad here.  60mph gusts+ 50/50 

yep - we have seen this movie many times.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Arw/Arw2 0z runs pretty much duds. Would be a marginal risk at best with those looks. Welp guess we will see what the morning brings. 

Look out for the heavy showers! 

[DSF]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this.  I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision. 

I also wonder if the fact that most schools likely haven't done their tornado drill for this year played into the decisions at all.

Still the safest call either way, but I thought about that earlier today.  We haven't done ours yet.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Look out for the heavy showers! 

Take shelter!

[adelphi_sky]

DC schools just caved. Early dismissal. 

[TSSN+]

Kids get off early for probably nothing. Even better than a busted snow/ice that turns out to be rain haha 

[wasnow215]

42 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Arw/Arw2 0z runs pretty much duds. Would be a marginal risk at best with those looks. Welp guess we will see what the morning brings. 

Never even heard of those models

[AmericanWxFreak]

Will be interesting to see what SPC does with this shift in guidance

[mattie g]

28 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Kids get off early for probably nothing. Even better than a busted snow/ice that turns out to be rain haha 

Let me ask you a question. If you’re an administrator in a local school district, would you keep the kids in school or would you send them home early? Think long and hard about what the outcomes of these decisions could be and the risk in making one decision or the other, as well as the benefits and drawbacks of both.

[Warm Nose]

If we can fail, we will. 
 

We never seem to learn the lesson though. 

[wasnow215]

Kids will be fine -they've missed plenty of time in years past for much dumber reasons. Sounds like a lot of you are thinking you drop back to enhanced. 

[AlexD1990]

So is the convection firing tonight unexpected or no?

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Let me ask you a question. If you’re an administrator in a local school district, would you keep the kids in school or would you send them home early? Think long and hard about what the outcomes of these decisions could be and the risk in making one decision or the other, as well as the benefits and drawbacks of both.

Cancel-one day is meaningless even if ONE life is saved. Missed multiple days for cold weather and the obvious long term virtual "learning" in years past. So many young adults STILL struggling bc of that.

[Amped]

They just do school remotely whenever there's the slightest threat. Its been that way since the pandemic.

[Amped]

24 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

If we can fail, we will. 
 

We never seem to learn the lesson though. 

Its another 50mph squall line. Thats what we get in this region. 

[yoda]

We are still a go per SPC new Day 1

 

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
   CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by
   the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid
   Atlantic today.  There is potential that a couple of storms could
   become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.

   ...Discussion...
   Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain
   amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and
   U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond.  At the same time, it
   appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification
   just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward
   progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the
   Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard.

   It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will
   gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the
   Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating
   northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this
   evening through the overnight hours.  Models suggest that this will
   eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface
   cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening
   cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity.

   Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast
   to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and
   Blue Ridge  today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface
   pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern
   Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage
   of the trough and trailing cold front.  The cold front may clear all
   the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and
   the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday.

   ...Atlantic Seaboard...
   Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into
   middle Atlantic Seaboard.  By early this afternoon, it appears that
   60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher
   terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew
   points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North
   Carolina and Virginia.  In advance of a pre-frontal squall line,
   which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the
   southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the
   outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and
   large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm
   development fairly early in the day.  The extent to which this may
   impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains
   unclear.

   Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak
   lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air
   aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front.  Even
   so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at
   least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is
   possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic.  

   In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on
   the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear,
   including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment
   appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving
   supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes.  Barring much
   interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this
   time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the
   storm motions.

   Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front
   might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of
   promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to
   produce widespread damaging wind gusts.

   Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be
   maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to
   severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the
   southern Atlantic coast.

   ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026

 

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

We are still a go per SPC new Day 1

   It’s still a go in terms of the categories and percentages that they’re rolling with, but the actual text mentions multiple ways this could bust.  

[yoda]

Just now, high risk said:

   It’s still a go in terms of the categories and percentages that they’re rolling with, but the actual text mentions multiple ways this could bust.  

True... but the text posted above also mentions potential for strong long track tornadoes 

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

True... but the text posted above also mentions potential for strong long track tornadoes 

Oh, absolutely.  The ceiling for this event is way higher than we usually see around here.   I’m just pointing out that we shouldn’t be shocked if this ends up way short of its potential.   The 00z CAM suite was far from a slam dunk. 

[WxWatcher007]

No such thing as a slam dunk in our neck of the woods. Will be interesting to see what today brings. It’ll be a fascinating meteorological evolution. 

Chasers—ALWAYS have multiple escape routes, and don’t hesitate to bail if you feel like something’s not right. 

Be safe, everyone.

[EstorilM]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No such thing as a slam dunk in our neck of the woods. Will be interesting to see what today brings. It’ll be a fascinating meteorological evolution. 

Chasers—ALWAYS have multiple escape routes, and don’t hesitate to bail if you feel like something’s not right. 

Be safe, everyone.

I’ve got a decent setup in my truck, but this thing is going to be moving so fast - the terrain / congestion and roads around northern VA make it almost impossible to follow something like this. 
 

If there’s a specific portion of the line that’s repeatedly tornado-warned or has a decent velocity couplet, I might try to position myself in that general area… but I don’t think I’ll be “chasing” anything really. 
 

Might not even matter as I can’t get out of work early regardless. 

[Kmlwx]

0z CSU-MLP guidance is an uptick from the 12z run yesterday.