3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[vortex]

Don’t see this very often 

[Nelson]

7 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

I dont recall such a lack of precip now shown on models regardless of who got how much now. I think you cant point out one observation place and defend anything. Again just trying to learn as I look at the radar and wonder why this fell apart with lack of precip in WI/MI in certain areas. 

Models were picking up on the precip lull earlier today. Watch a regional radar and you will see that things are starting to fill in.

From MKX:

As precip continues to shift east, attention will turn westward
toward the precip responsible for phase three of the event. Due
to a lack of deeper lift & some lingering dry air aloft, a
precip lull continues in locations west of a Monroe-Madison-Fond
du Lac line. Anticipate that this lull will continue through
mid-evening (~8 PM), prior to filling in as an upper wave &
affiliated deformation zone move in during the mid-evening
hours. Still anticipate the development of moderate to heavy
snow along the deformation band, with enhanced rates continuing
into the early morning hours Monday. Will continue to monitor
observational & model trends through mid-evening and provide
additional updates as necessary.

[sbnwx85]

Rogue cell popped up and a cg just scared the crap out of me and the dogs 

[Weather Mike]

8 minutes ago, Nelson said:

Models were picking up on the precip lull earlier today. Watch a regional radar and you will see that things are starting to fill in.

From MKX:

As precip continues to shift east, attention will turn westward
toward the precip responsible for phase three of the event. Due
to a lack of deeper lift & some lingering dry air aloft, a
precip lull continues in locations west of a Monroe-Madison-Fond
du Lac line. Anticipate that this lull will continue through
mid-evening (~8 PM), prior to filling in as an upper wave &
affiliated deformation zone move in during the mid-evening
hours. Still anticipate the development of moderate to heavy
snow along the deformation band, with enhanced rates continuing
into the early morning hours Monday. Will continue to monitor
observational & model trends through mid-evening and provide
additional updates as necessary.

appreciate you sharing that. thank you

[McHenrySnow]

1.23" of rain today and very excited about that alone. Temp is down to 32.7°. 

[madwx]

Dry slot looks to be winding down here shortly.  Snow should pick up again within the next hour

[McHenrySnow]

Snow Squall Warning issued for Springfield, MO, which honestly, from the radar, looks unnecessary. 

[Baum]

At the minimum I’ll have a free skating rink for 36 hours

[Baum]

3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Snow Squall Warning issued for Springfield, MO, which honestly, from the radar, looks unnecessary. 

Let them have thier fun.

[hawkeye_wx]

My NWS forecast says 3-7", but as the models have continued to inch eastward, I am only expecting 2-3 inches now.

[cyclone77]

We've switched over to sleet here, and down to 31.

[josh_4184]

Picked up about 15" of cement from the clipper, picked up about 6" this morning, changed over to heavy sleet, fz rain the past several hours. Hoping it stays more sleet over here.  Adding .5 to 1" of freezing rain on top of this would be a knockout. 

[Baum]

^ban

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just got added to the blizzard warning 

[Baum]

7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Just got added to the blizzard warning 

Shift change at LOT. WWA expanded as well.

[kevlon62]

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Just got added to the blizzard warning 

The trend is our friend. Ready for it between Woodstock and Hebron.

 

.

[cyclone77]

Sleet now mixing with large flakes.

[Sciascia]

A blizzard warning in March is certainly noteworthy, even moreso with actual quantities of snow being forecast to accumulate.

[sbnwx85]

One for the archives.

[cyclone77]

Already moderate snow no longer with sleet.  Ground already DABd.  Changeover process evolved very quickly.

[kevlon62]

Sleet mixing into the rain.

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Already moderate snow no longer with sleet.  Ground already DABd.  Changeover process evolved very quickly.

Top 3 event for you already! 

[Geoboy645]

Milwaukee has officially put a blizzard warning now. First one since 12/20/12 here.

[cyclone77]

Nowcast time but 18z Euro was pretty juicy for northern IL. 

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Nowcast time but 18z Euro was pretty juicy for northern IL. 

Show please? 

[cyclone77]

8 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Show please? 

10:1, so bump it up to whatever you're thinking is for LSRs.

[ILSNOW]

chicago update

We just recently updated the forecast to upgrade our Winter
Storm Warning to a Blizzard Warning. We also included Dekalb and
McHenry counties in this warning. We also expanded the Winter
Weather advisory anther row of counties southeastward along the
I-55 corridor.

The storm system is tracking farther south then originally
thought. Overall, this adds concern that snowfall amounts may
end up a bit higher than previous forecasts, particularly across
the warned area where several hours of wind gusts of 45 to 50
mph will combine with the snow overnight into Monday morning to
produce blizzard conditions. With this in mind, and the fact
that there are numerous upstream obs across IA and parts of MO
that are reporting 1/4 or less VSBYs, felt the path of least
regret was to pull the trigger on the upgrade.

 

[Sciascia]

15 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Show please? 

 

[cutlew]

Can’t remember the last time the entire state of WI plus the UP were under a WSW (much less a blizzard warning) all at the same time.

Also the line of convection from Mackinac Island all the way down to Houston is something to behold.

[josh_4184]

Switching over to heavy snow/sleet mix, I'll take it over the previous forcasted ice. Took about 2 hours to plow/clear the snow/sleet mess, seen several pics north of me with burried cars/etc. i75 shutdown from the bridge to south of Grayling.