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3/15-3/16 Winter Storm


cmillzz
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7 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

I dont recall such a lack of precip now shown on models regardless of who got how much now. I think you cant point out one observation place and defend anything. Again just trying to learn as I look at the radar and wonder why this fell apart with lack of precip in WI/MI in certain areas. 

Models were picking up on the precip lull earlier today. Watch a regional radar and you will see that things are starting to fill in.

From MKX:

As precip continues to shift east, attention will turn westward
toward the precip responsible for phase three of the event. Due
to a lack of deeper lift & some lingering dry air aloft, a
precip lull continues in locations west of a Monroe-Madison-Fond
du Lac line. Anticipate that this lull will continue through
mid-evening (~8 PM), prior to filling in as an upper wave &
affiliated deformation zone move in during the mid-evening
hours. Still anticipate the development of moderate to heavy
snow along the deformation band, with enhanced rates continuing
into the early morning hours Monday. Will continue to monitor
observational & model trends through mid-evening and provide
additional updates as necessary.
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8 minutes ago, Nelson said:

Models were picking up on the precip lull earlier today. Watch a regional radar and you will see that things are starting to fill in.

From MKX:

As precip continues to shift east, attention will turn westward
toward the precip responsible for phase three of the event. Due
to a lack of deeper lift & some lingering dry air aloft, a
precip lull continues in locations west of a Monroe-Madison-Fond
du Lac line. Anticipate that this lull will continue through
mid-evening (~8 PM), prior to filling in as an upper wave &
affiliated deformation zone move in during the mid-evening
hours. Still anticipate the development of moderate to heavy
snow along the deformation band, with enhanced rates continuing
into the early morning hours Monday. Will continue to monitor
observational & model trends through mid-evening and provide
additional updates as necessary.

appreciate you sharing that. thank you

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chicago update

We just recently updated the forecast to upgrade our Winter
Storm Warning to a Blizzard Warning. We also included Dekalb and
McHenry counties in this warning. We also expanded the Winter
Weather advisory anther row of counties southeastward along the
I-55 corridor.

The storm system is tracking farther south then originally
thought. Overall, this adds concern that snowfall amounts may
end up a bit higher than previous forecasts, particularly across
the warned area where several hours of wind gusts of 45 to 50
mph will combine with the snow overnight into Monday morning to
produce blizzard conditions. With this in mind, and the fact
that there are numerous upstream obs across IA and parts of MO
that are reporting 1/4 or less VSBYs, felt the path of least
regret was to pull the trigger on the upgrade.

 

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