3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[hawkeye_wx]

DVN issued a blizzard warning for their entire area.  The snow forecast is 4-8", which seems a bit high, plus wind up to 60 mph.

[cmillzz]

13 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

There it is. The entire MPX CWA is under a blizzard warning. That might be a first.


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I can see localized 18" amounts for the Twin Cities. Meanwhile Green Bay may have their biggest snowstorm on record.

[McHenrySnow]

4 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I can see localized 18" amounts for the Twin Cities. Meanwhile Green Bay may have their biggest snowstorm on record.

If the current majority of models are to be believed, not a chance.

[cmillzz]

2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

If the current majority of models are to be believed, not a chance.

We'll see how much sleet mixes in I guess.

[Mogget]

The last AFD from Milwaukee-Sullivan is from midnight Friday?  I can’t get anything newer.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

 

[Weather Mike]

5 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

 

I am about to land at MSP so this will be fun ! Hoping for the best here.  

[OrdIowPitMsp]

4 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

I am about to land at MSP so this will be fun ! Hoping for the best here.  

Nice! Welcome! I’m a little nervous about the dry slot or mixing making its way into the southern half of the metro, but you’ve gotta be close to maximize the pivot. I think Anoka or Forest Lake is the place to be, but this should be fun regardless. 

[mnchaserguy]

Nice! Welcome! I’m a little nervous about the dry slot or mixing making its way into the southern half of the metro, but you’ve gotta be close to maximize the pivot. I think Anoka or Forest Lake is the place to be, but this should be fun regardless. 

I think I might actually end up in or close to the bullseye for the metro here in Blaine. Models keep bouncing back and forth a few miles and that’s enough to make a difference in the heaviest band.


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[Chinook]

This is perhaps a once-in-a-generation amount of blizzard warnings for March, in terms of area (not in Rockies)

[OrdIowPitMsp]

14 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

I think I might actually end up in or close to the bullseye for the metro here in Blaine. Models keep bouncing back and forth a few miles and that’s enough to make a difference in the heaviest band.


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I’d definitely feel better in your location versus mine. (Lake Nokomis - S. MPLS) Either way I’ve got cautious optimism in a metro wide 12-18” 

 

Starting to spit flakes here. 

[mnchaserguy]

I’d definitely feel better in your location versus mine. (Lake Nokomis - S. MPLS) Either way I’ve got cautious optimism in a metro wide 12-18” 
 
Starting to spit flakes here. 

18z hrrr is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen for us. Several hours of 2”+ rates, even pushing 3” for a while. The one thing that could really hamper our totals are the ratios. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the ratios are under 10:1, maybe getting a bit better as the rates ease up but at that point the winds will ramp up and compact things too.


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[mnchaserguy]

Hrrr has the bullseye over the heart of MSP.


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[DocATL]

Dumb question but why are the 12km and 3km NAM runs so different? Effectively different models in terms of how they process data?


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[MidwestChaser]

Looks like MKE didn’t do a morning discussion.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

7 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

18z hrrr is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen for us. Several hours of 2”+ rates, even pushing 3” for a while. The one thing that could really hamper our totals are the ratios. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the ratios are under 10:1, maybe getting a bit better as the rates ease up but at that point the winds will ramp up and compact things too.


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Just saw it. Wow, going to be hard to sleep tonight if that’s what’s in store. Optimism growing. Top 10 or bust!

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

Looks like MKE didn’t do a morning discussion.

They're still acclimating to daylight savings changeover.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

9 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

18z hrrr is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen for us. Several hours of 2”+ rates, even pushing 3” for a while. The one thing that could really hamper our totals are the ratios. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the ratios are under 10:1, maybe getting a bit better as the rates ease up but at that point the winds will ramp up and compact things too.


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MPX mentioned low ratios, in setups like these it’s what typically happens. Also it’s mid March not January. 

[ILSNOW]

Milwaukee update

Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Lafayette-Green-Rock-
Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Delavan, Mineral Point, Monroe, Kenosha,
Whitewater, Brodhead, Shullsburg, Lake Geneva, Fort Atkinson,
Muskego, Argyle, Blanchardville, Madison, East Troy, Belmont,
Watertown, Janesville, Milwaukee, Darlington, Jefferson, Benton,
Brookfield, Waukesha, New Berlin, Racine, Dodgeville, Beloit,
Elkhorn, Barneveld, and Menomonee Falls
140 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations around
  a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

[mnchaserguy]

MPX mentioned low ratios, in setups like these it’s what typically happens. Also it’s mid March not January. 

The interesting thing is some of the cams were spitting out big numbers but it wasn’t using crazy high ratios to do it. Some of them had ratios of 11 or 12:1 which isn’t that high, and it was still giving us over 20” totals. Just imagine if we actually got 15:1 ratios for this entire storm lol


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[michsnowfreak]

On 3/13/2026 at 3:32 PM, Weather Mike said:

I wish there was more posts like the NE threads. This is a huge storm and its like crickets in here and if this was the NE thread it would be page 10000 by now. Just sucks living in the Midwest with the lack of enthusiasm as there is a lack of expert opinions and discussions to learn from by underlinks like me 

If this storm was aligned in the Chicago to Detroit corridor it would be a massive thread.

This is the equivalent of a new England threat where the northern half of Maine is the southern extent of the goods.

[ILSNOW]

[cmillzz]

5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Looks right on the money.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

11 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

The interesting thing is some of the cams were spitting out big numbers but it wasn’t using crazy high ratios to do it. Some of them had ratios of 11 or 12:1 which isn’t that high, and it was still giving us over 20” totals. Just imagine if we actually got 15:1 ratios for this entire storm lol


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Interesting I didn’t dive into that. I usually just look at the 10:1 maps. If we can get extended time in the deformation band, ratios should improve.

[A-L-E-K]

10 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Looks right on the money.

Best in the game

[ILSNOW]

Chicago

There continues to be some
differences amongst guidance in terms as to how much additional
moisture will fall as snow in the deformation band of the cyclone
into Monday morning. However, given the expected track of the
system, forecast thinking continues to favor the heaviest snow
axis from northwestern IL into WI, with much lighter amounts with
east-southeastward extent across our area. This results in general
forecast snow amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range in my far
northwest (near the Rockford area), dropping to only an inch or
two across the Chicago area and points southeast.

conditions should become more hazardous with time Sunday night,
with the potential for periods of near blizzard conditions at
times, particularly across the more open areas of
northern/northwestern IL. These poor conditions are expected to
continue into Monday morning before the snow gradually tapers off
from south to north through the day on Monday.

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Mood flaking. Big dog or bust. Going to be an awesome storm for MSP 

[Cary67]

11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Mood flaking. Big dog or bust. Going to be an awesome storm for MSP 

After Dec.8th been living on the margins all winter

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Nice explanation by MPX on pulling the trigger for a blizzard warning. 
 

So the Blizzard Warning... There is high confidence given the snow
totals and strength of winds that blizzard conditions will be
observed in our traditional "blizzard alley" from west central to
south central MN, especially late Sunday morning into Sunday night.
For eastern Minnesota into western WI, blizzard purists may argue
that we don`t hit blizzard conditions of a 1/2 mile or less
visibility with wind gusts of 35 mph or more for 3 or more
consecutive hours. This is because the strongest winds will be
lagging the heaviest snow and eastern MN and western WI really need
the heavy falling snow to achieve the visibility requirements of a
Blizzard Warning. However, we are looking at historic snowfall
amounts for a March storm (see climate section), with travel
expected to be crippled across our entire area tonight into Sunday
night. In addition, when the common citizen looks out the window
Sunday morning (ie. not the blizzard purist!), they`ll likely say,
yup, this is one heck of a blizzard. Given the expected high to
extreme impacts, we felt comfortable in pulling the biggest winter
messaging lever we have, the Blizzard Warning. Simply put, travel is
expected to be very dangerous on Sunday and the best way to get the
message across on just how severe this winter storm will be is to go
with Blizzard Warning.

 

[beavis1729]

57 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

After Dec.8th been living on the margins all winter

Yeah…outside of the lake effect areas, people don’t realize how bad of a winter this has been. Rockford has only had 6.9” of snow since 12/8, with a max 2” of snow cover…and bare ground during the entire month of February.

I know many of us had two decent storms prior to 12/8, but all of that snow melted by 12/15 or even sooner. 

I don’t care what the total snowfall is compared to climo. It’s a horrible way to gauge the quality of a winter. It has been a horrible winter in northern IL and southern WI. I wish people would just acknowledge that. I just feel like people focus on total snowfall relative to average, not even realizing that our normals are pathetic to begin with, plus two seasons with the exact same snow totals could have completely different characters. It’s not only ok for people to have high standards, but it should be encouraged…just like anything in life.

Having a white Christmas would have helped, and I thought it was a lock after having 10” on the ground on 12/5 and entering into the shortest days and lowest sun angle of the year. And a big dog with the current storm would have helped too, although it would melt quickly due to the time of year. But both of these failed by a wide margin. No white Christmas knocks the grade down by two letters all by itself. Plus the endless annoying dustings which would have been great if there were a good snowpack (but instead, you end up noticing the sublimation even when it managed to stay cold for awhile), and the new obnoxious problem in early December when the snow melted from below since it was so early in the season. It’s as though everything goes against snow retention around here. To me, snow retention is the most defining aspect of winter. The only thing good about this winter was the cold outbreak in mid-late January, especially because we thankfully maintained a bit of snow cover IMBY during the cold (but not on the roads or more congested areas, which is an entirely different issue).

I know people grade winters differently. I like to communicate things by considering the extreme outcomes of a situation, because it adds context.

This is what I mean - some people might argue that our area has 6 months of winter, since it can snow during November-April. That’s technically true, but to me that’s dumb. Just because it can snow during April, it doesn’t mean it’s a wintry month. That approach is a 1 on the “degree of difficulty/level of standards” scale for grading a winter, if you use a 1-10 scale.

Some may say winter means an average high temp in the 30s or colder. To me, that’s way too generous, and it would get a 2 on the aforementioned scale. If every day were in the 30s or colder, that would be different. But average highs in the 30s aren’t wintry, because a significant number of days in the 40s and 50s can still occur, which is unacceptable.

On the other extreme, someone else could argue that we don’t have any winter in this area at all, because there is no calendar period during which you can guarantee that it will look and feel like winter outside (meaning cold temps with meaningful snow cover). While late January has the best probability of this occurring, there are some years with warm temps and bare ground at that time of year. That approach would get a 10 on the aforementioned scale. Even I wouldn’t go that extreme, but my approach is probably an 8. This is because, in many (but not all) winters, you can count on 20-40 days (not necessarily consecutive) when it’s cold with meaningful snow cover (say 3”+ so there are no annoying bare spots). In other words, I would say we have about one month of winter. I may be a tough grader, but that’s how it should be when you care about something. An 8 out of 10, not a crazy outlier.

I’m only pointing this out because, especially on a weather forum like this, it would be more fun and there would be better camaraderie if we all fell in the 7-10 range on this scale. But I think most of this forum falls into the 2-4 range on the scale…which I think is unfortunate. Just like your favorite sports team, I like having high standards for winter, whether or not it’s logical. Miami gets an F every winter, even with this year’s record cold (30s) for them. It doesn’t matter what a place’s climo is.

I know that I anthromoporphize winter. But when a person cares about something and has a deep emotional connection to it, that’s what happens. I guess the alternative is to not get excited about anything at all, but what fun is that?

I know this post is OT, but missing out on the current storm was the last straw, plus I’m not able to chase it due to other priorities. 

Anyway, I hope the good folks up north post a lot of pictures.