3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[hawkeye_wx]

DVN issued a blizzard warning for their entire area.  The snow forecast is 4-8", which seems a bit high, plus wind up to 60 mph.

[cmillzz]

13 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

There it is. The entire MPX CWA is under a blizzard warning. That might be a first.


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I can see localized 18" amounts for the Twin Cities. Meanwhile Green Bay may have their biggest snowstorm on record.

[McHenrySnow]

4 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I can see localized 18" amounts for the Twin Cities. Meanwhile Green Bay may have their biggest snowstorm on record.

If the current majority of models are to be believed, not a chance.

[cmillzz]

2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

If the current majority of models are to be believed, not a chance.

We'll see how much sleet mixes in I guess.

[Mogget]

The last AFD from Milwaukee-Sullivan is from midnight Friday?  I can’t get anything newer.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

 

[Weather Mike]

5 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

 

I am about to land at MSP so this will be fun ! Hoping for the best here.  

[OrdIowPitMsp]

4 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

I am about to land at MSP so this will be fun ! Hoping for the best here.  

Nice! Welcome! I’m a little nervous about the dry slot or mixing making its way into the southern half of the metro, but you’ve gotta be close to maximize the pivot. I think Anoka or Forest Lake is the place to be, but this should be fun regardless. 

[mnchaserguy]

Nice! Welcome! I’m a little nervous about the dry slot or mixing making its way into the southern half of the metro, but you’ve gotta be close to maximize the pivot. I think Anoka or Forest Lake is the place to be, but this should be fun regardless. 

I think I might actually end up in or close to the bullseye for the metro here in Blaine. Models keep bouncing back and forth a few miles and that’s enough to make a difference in the heaviest band.


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[Chinook]

This is perhaps a once-in-a-generation amount of blizzard warnings for March, in terms of area (not in Rockies)

[OrdIowPitMsp]

14 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

I think I might actually end up in or close to the bullseye for the metro here in Blaine. Models keep bouncing back and forth a few miles and that’s enough to make a difference in the heaviest band.


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I’d definitely feel better in your location versus mine. (Lake Nokomis - S. MPLS) Either way I’ve got cautious optimism in a metro wide 12-18” 

 

Starting to spit flakes here. 

[mnchaserguy]

I’d definitely feel better in your location versus mine. (Lake Nokomis - S. MPLS) Either way I’ve got cautious optimism in a metro wide 12-18” 
 
Starting to spit flakes here. 

18z hrrr is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen for us. Several hours of 2”+ rates, even pushing 3” for a while. The one thing that could really hamper our totals are the ratios. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the ratios are under 10:1, maybe getting a bit better as the rates ease up but at that point the winds will ramp up and compact things too.


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[mnchaserguy]

Hrrr has the bullseye over the heart of MSP.


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[DocATL]

Dumb question but why are the 12km and 3km NAM runs so different? Effectively different models in terms of how they process data?


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[MidwestChaser]

Looks like MKE didn’t do a morning discussion.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

7 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

18z hrrr is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen for us. Several hours of 2”+ rates, even pushing 3” for a while. The one thing that could really hamper our totals are the ratios. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the ratios are under 10:1, maybe getting a bit better as the rates ease up but at that point the winds will ramp up and compact things too.


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Just saw it. Wow, going to be hard to sleep tonight if that’s what’s in store. Optimism growing. Top 10 or bust!

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

Looks like MKE didn’t do a morning discussion.

They're still acclimating to daylight savings changeover.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

9 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

18z hrrr is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen for us. Several hours of 2”+ rates, even pushing 3” for a while. The one thing that could really hamper our totals are the ratios. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the ratios are under 10:1, maybe getting a bit better as the rates ease up but at that point the winds will ramp up and compact things too.


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MPX mentioned low ratios, in setups like these it’s what typically happens. Also it’s mid March not January. 

[ILSNOW]

Milwaukee update

Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Lafayette-Green-Rock-
Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Delavan, Mineral Point, Monroe, Kenosha,
Whitewater, Brodhead, Shullsburg, Lake Geneva, Fort Atkinson,
Muskego, Argyle, Blanchardville, Madison, East Troy, Belmont,
Watertown, Janesville, Milwaukee, Darlington, Jefferson, Benton,
Brookfield, Waukesha, New Berlin, Racine, Dodgeville, Beloit,
Elkhorn, Barneveld, and Menomonee Falls
140 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations around
  a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

[mnchaserguy]

MPX mentioned low ratios, in setups like these it’s what typically happens. Also it’s mid March not January. 

The interesting thing is some of the cams were spitting out big numbers but it wasn’t using crazy high ratios to do it. Some of them had ratios of 11 or 12:1 which isn’t that high, and it was still giving us over 20” totals. Just imagine if we actually got 15:1 ratios for this entire storm lol


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[michsnowfreak]

On 3/13/2026 at 3:32 PM, Weather Mike said:

I wish there was more posts like the NE threads. This is a huge storm and its like crickets in here and if this was the NE thread it would be page 10000 by now. Just sucks living in the Midwest with the lack of enthusiasm as there is a lack of expert opinions and discussions to learn from by underlinks like me 

If this storm was aligned in the Chicago to Detroit corridor it would be a massive thread.

This is the equivalent of a new England threat where the northern half of Maine is the southern extent of the goods.

[ILSNOW]

[cmillzz]

5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Looks right on the money.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

11 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

The interesting thing is some of the cams were spitting out big numbers but it wasn’t using crazy high ratios to do it. Some of them had ratios of 11 or 12:1 which isn’t that high, and it was still giving us over 20” totals. Just imagine if we actually got 15:1 ratios for this entire storm lol


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Interesting I didn’t dive into that. I usually just look at the 10:1 maps. If we can get extended time in the deformation band, ratios should improve.

[A-L-E-K]

10 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Looks right on the money.

Best in the game

[ILSNOW]

Chicago

There continues to be some
differences amongst guidance in terms as to how much additional
moisture will fall as snow in the deformation band of the cyclone
into Monday morning. However, given the expected track of the
system, forecast thinking continues to favor the heaviest snow
axis from northwestern IL into WI, with much lighter amounts with
east-southeastward extent across our area. This results in general
forecast snow amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range in my far
northwest (near the Rockford area), dropping to only an inch or
two across the Chicago area and points southeast.

conditions should become more hazardous with time Sunday night,
with the potential for periods of near blizzard conditions at
times, particularly across the more open areas of
northern/northwestern IL. These poor conditions are expected to
continue into Monday morning before the snow gradually tapers off
from south to north through the day on Monday.

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Mood flaking. Big dog or bust. Going to be an awesome storm for MSP 

[Cary67]

11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Mood flaking. Big dog or bust. Going to be an awesome storm for MSP 

After Dec.8th been living on the margins all winter