3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[hawkeye_wx]

8 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Can you share the 6z Euro? 

[Malacka11]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

That's an almost comical cutout of Iowa 

[Brian D]

The big issue here will be the ice. MSP should get hit hard Sat night into Sun am with snow, as well as N WI/UP during the day, but a big mess for ev1 else. 

[Imneversatisfied]

Will some please post the FRAM forecasts?Thanks in advance.

[ILSNOW]

this storm covers alot of acreage 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Surprised they pulled the trigger this early. Figured it would happen with the afternoon update.

 

The first concern is heavy snow, with a broad area of 10 to 16 inches
likely, and a narrow swath of 15 to 20 inches Totals across portions
of western and central Wisconsin could approach 2 feet. The heaviest
snow will fall Saturday evening and overnight, with rates of 2 inches
per hour possible. Winds will start out of the northeast at 20 to 30
mph.

[mnchaserguy]

Nam and HRRR shifted way north. Wonder if it’s an outlier or a trend. They tend to do this so I’m not gonna believe them until the globals start to show it.


.

[ILSNOW]

12z Icon on drugs

[josh_4184]

How much will stick??  Combined with 12-20" of concrete and 45mph winds fun times ahead.

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12z Icon on drugs

we ride

[Baum]

15 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12z Icon on drugs

Bump on Tuesday when it verifies. Only in March and April can it happen.

[Imneversatisfied]

6 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

How much will stick??  Combined with 12-20" of concrete and 45mph winds fun times ahead.

 

 

Thanks Josh. Damn! Still big ice totals. Im getting plastered in Alpena right now as it is. I got food,gas,propane and my two snowmobiles ready to go. 

[nvck]

trending very unfavorably for central MI to get much of anything other than maybe a light glaze, and a couple inches of snow. sad

[McHenrySnow]

25 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12z Icon on drugs

it has been consistent, at least. maybe consistently wrong, but we can hope. 

[McHenrySnow]

HRRR always has pretty meaningful swings from 48 hours to 24 hours and even 12 hours. It seems to often be an outlier that eventually comes closer to reality as the time frame narrows. 

[cmillzz]

4 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

it has been consistent, at least. maybe consistently wrong, but we can hope. 

I have a better chance of winning the lottery than that verifying

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, cmillzz said:

I have a better chance of winning the lottery than that verifying

You better buy a ticket. 

[cmillzz]

AI GFS with yet another bump north.

[DocATL]

we ride

This is the true test of German scientific prowess.


.

[A-L-E-K]

worst country imo, get ready to be let down

[Chicago Storm]

i’m surprised we haven’t seen see some random op run keep the main wave more consolidated as it digs, and close it off further south as it goes negative tilt, leading to a ghd1 level solution further south.

i saw a few ens previously do that a day or two ago, but wanted to see the lolz from an op.

[cmillzz]

Most likely scenario is the storm cuts directly over Chicago (basing this on morning trends anyhow). Feel like we have a bit more of a consensus now, but definitely still room for some slight shifts.

[Chicago Storm]

Most likely scenario is the storm cuts directly over Chicago (basing this on morning trends anyhow). Feel like we have a bit more of a consensus now, but definitely still room for some slight shifts.

i wouldn’t get comfortable with anything just yet (good or bad).

it’s a very complex evolution overall.

[cyclone77]

The RGEM continues to rock us pretty good.

If it wins out I may have to swap the American flag out front for a maple leaf lol.

[beavis1729]

30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i’m surprised we haven’t seen see some random op run keep the main wave more consolidated as it digs, and close it off further south as it goes negative tilt, leading to a ghd1 level solution further south.

i saw a few ens previously do that a day or two ago, but wanted to see the lolz from an op.

Any thoughts on whether the snowfall in the Upper Midwest overnight and this morning could tighten up the baroclinic zone and help the cold push a bit further south than currently modeled? Or any type of impact of the new snow cover on the various moving pieces in general?

I guess we'll see it in the 18z runs, if there's any truth to this.  I know it's weenie rule #500, but why not. 

[A-L-E-K]

16 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Any thoughts on whether the snowfall in the Upper Midwest overnight and this morning could tighten up the baroclinic zone and help the cold push a bit further south than currently modeled? Or any type of impact of the new snow cover on the various moving pieces in general?

I guess we'll see it in the 18z runs, if there's any truth to this.  I know it's weenie rule #500, but why not. 

 

20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

for those keeping score at home, here are all of the moving pieces involved with this one.

as usual name of the game is complex wave interactions (especially so with this) and baroclinic zone largely irrelevant imo

just be glad we're hanging onto good consensus for the rapid deepening in our backyard which can often hold surprises

 

[McHenrySnow]

The good news is it will be windy no matter what since we haven't seen enough wind lately. 

[Chicago916]

29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i wouldn’t get comfortable with anything just yet (good or bad).

it’s a very complex evolution overall.

I've sensed cautious optimism from you lately. I still think it's strange given the moving pieces we haven't really seen any large swings in guidance. I guess modeling isn't that terrible then

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

The good news is it will be windy no matter what since we haven't seen enough wind lately. 

same as it ever was 

[hawkeye_wx]

The 12z Euro is a big shift back west with the secondary defo band.  The previous two runs had almost nothing in eastern Iowa.