2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Nomz]

Other forums I'm on have the ability to cut and paste a bunch of posts from one thread to another, could we do that for this thread?

3 minutes ago, coastal front said:

I think the value of a thread is to analyze how tends, model runs, increasing/decreasing threat levels and NWS discussions evolved in the days leading up to the event. Regardless if the top end potential verifies it would make it easier to reflect on how a very rare long lead/ high prob severe threat unfolded day by day for future reference. Most on this board will remember a day 4 30% severe prob over an anafrontal coating that had a thread earlier this week lol. 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

HRRR and NAM seem to be coming in later with the cold front's arrival. 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

HRRR and NAM seem to be coming in later with the cold front's arrival. 

[Eskimo Joe]

00z HRRR is legit. Several pre-frontal mini supercells then a solid squall line.

[Nomz]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z HRRR is legit. Several pre-frontal mini supercells then a solid squall line.

I would be careful writing those off as mini-supes. With such pristine wind profiles, only about 1k cape can get it done.

[Nomz]

The 00z NAM is legit

[Nomz]

Day 2 MDT!!!

[yoda]

Oh

 

[high risk]

The high end scenario is still very real.  The fail scenario is still very real.  

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
   SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND
   MARYLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong,
   and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina
   into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm
   potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle
   into Pennsylvania.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of
   the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic
   on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp
   pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the
   Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant
   pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front
   will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day
   with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty
   south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints
   across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just
   after warm front passage by late afternoon.

   Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50
   to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area.
   Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak
   heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather
   event during the afternoon.

   ...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...
   Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians
   toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will
   already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential.
   Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to
   perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also
   produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km.

   ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity...
   Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
   rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
   destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens,
   low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
   Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
   front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of
   instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
   SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
   a long tracked tornado will be possible.

   Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
   pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a
   moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
   produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes
   across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This
   will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may
   eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during
   the evening.

   ..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

[Rhino16]

I was expecting like a 10, but I wasn’t sure how they would incorporate the qlcs part of the tor risk into the percentages

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

I was expecting like a 10, but I wasn’t sure how they would incorporate the qlcs part of the tor risk into the percentages

They can go 15 cig 1 without moderate  so I assume that was a pretty easy decision. Also if they were go moderate for wind anyways it doesn’t really matter going 10 or 15% for tornadoes.

[andyhb]

Getting a lot of 2/24/2016 vibes from both the outlook and the model progs/soundings for Monday, which of course was a widespread severe outbreak for the region, including some strong tornadoes (e.g. Appomattox VA EF3).

[Kmlwx]

I'll get a separate thread started in a bit! 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I'll get a separate thread started in a bit! 

SPC mentioning the potential for a long track tornado or two. Oh man.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[mappy]

11 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

@mappy - Do you still have you mod powers? If I bump this event to a standalone thread after the afternoon day 2 outlook tomorrow can you pin it? Or I guess @WxUSAF is a mod too right? 

Hi sorry, just seeing this. Was at a concert last night. I see it’s all been handled. Thanks for starting a thread 

[Mrs.J]

*URGENT*

So I need some help. 

The older Ms. J is currently on a film project for her senior capstone aka student run project. She is a AD, assistant Director, on the current project. Anyways part of the AD’s job is safety. They are shooting in studio on AU’s campus Media Production Center. It is in the basement of the building so thinking that is the shelter for the building anyways. She has asked me to let her know the threat level. She texted me this morning. 

“if it is seeming enough that we either may lose power or have to shelter in place worse case scenario I have to hold a safety meeting tonight to tell everyone to get here safely tomorrow and another one tomorrow with protocols."

If anyone can advise me. I have been following along with the two threads here on this set up but I am far from an expert on this. She is really big on doing her job correctly and wants to keep everyone safe so I told her I would help her with this as much as I can. Because her and I are huge weather buffs I am happy that she is on top of this as it may be something that is overlooked by others. I thank anyone in advance if I can give her a clearer understanding for her area of NW DC. 

[Stormlander]

2 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

*URGENT*

So I need some help. 

The older Ms. J is currently on a film project for her senior capstone aka student run project. She is a AD, assistant Director, on the current project. Anyways part of the AD’s job is safety. They are shooting in studio on AU’s campus Media Production Center. It is in the basement of the building so thinking that is the shelter for the building anyways. She has asked me to let her know the threat level. She texted me this morning. 

“if it is seeming enough that we either may lose power or have to shelter in place worse case scenario I have to hold a safety meeting tonight to tell everyone to get here safely tomorrow and another one tomorrow with protocols."

If anyone can advise me. I have been following along with the two threads here on this set up but I am far from an expert on this. She is really big on doing her job correctly and wants to keep everyone safe so I told her I would help her with this as much as I can. Because her and I are huge weather buffs I am happy that she is on top of this as it may be something that is overlooked by others. I thank anyone in advance if I can give her a clearer understanding for her area of NW DC. 

Speaking as a past and current employee at other universities around town, and veteran of midwestern tornadoes and being an RA through a couple EF3s, here’s a couple things she can do:

- Does the building have a designated floor marshal or safety officer on staff, and does she know how to contact them? They’ll have exact info on where the shelters are and how to access them. I don’t know how AU’s program works, but Georgetown and UMD have had them in the buildings I’ve worked in to support evacuations and corralling personnel to safe locations.

- If she can’t contact a floor marshal or one doesn’t exist, AU’s police department might have advice if she emails them.

- If she’s got to ensure production safety in a weather event, I’m pulling from documentation that just got circulated to us at Maryland: get below ground, somewhere interior to the building, and stay away from walls and windows, doors with glass, etc. Ideally, the room shouldn’t have a lot of unsecured *stuff* in it like a media production room would, or electrical cables. If anyone has bike helmets or the like, put them on. Flash flooding in buildings can be a risk (this happened to me in grad school, and it happened at one of UMD’s libraries too), and that’s an evacuate ASAP situation.

 I hope that helps, and that it’s all just precautionary!

[Mrs.J]

1 hour ago, Stormlander said:

Speaking as a past and current employee at other universities around town, and veteran of midwestern tornadoes and being an RA through a couple EF3s, here’s a couple things she can do:

- Does the building have a designated floor marshal or safety officer on staff, and does she know how to contact them? They’ll have exact info on where the shelters are and how to access them. I don’t know how AU’s program works, but Georgetown and UMD have had them in the buildings I’ve worked in to support evacuations and corralling personnel to safe locations.

- If she can’t contact a floor marshal or one doesn’t exist, AU’s police department might have advice if she emails them.

- If she’s got to ensure production safety in a weather event, I’m pulling from documentation that just got circulated to us at Maryland: get below ground, somewhere interior to the building, and stay away from walls and windows, doors with glass, etc. Ideally, the room shouldn’t have a lot of unsecured *stuff* in it like a media production room would, or electrical cables. If anyone has bike helmets or the like, put them on. Flash flooding in buildings can be a risk (this happened to me in grad school, and it happened at one of UMD’s libraries too), and that’s an evacuate ASAP situation.

 I hope that helps, and that it’s all just precautionary!

Do not know about a designated floor marshal. Did tell her tomorrow morning before they start to ask at the front desk of the CAGE, where all the check outs for equipment is done about a designated tornado shelter in the building. I will alert her about flash flooding. I think that part of campus is on pretty high ground but you just never know with water. 

She did say that the level of the studio there are bathrooms outside in the hall that have no windows so that in my mind would be the place I would go. I am going to copy and paste this and send it to her. At least it is an idea of a plan and with talking to staff in the building tomorrow she can do a second safety meeting before shooting starts. Thanks!

[Eskimo Joe]

Sunday could have a few decent storms riding a remnant EML in northwest flow. These setups can produce.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Sunday could have a few decent storms riding a remnant EML in northwest flow. These setups can produce.

[high risk]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Sunday could have a few decent storms riding a remnant EML in northwest flow. These setups can produce.

          Definitely can!    I think that the timing isn't good for most of us, although there appears to be a signal for some earlier storms dropping southeast into northeastern MD.

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX 

Any low clouds or fog should burn off quickly tomorrow morning.
Much warmer air will advect into the area tomorrow in
southwesterly flow aloft, with 850 hPa temperatures surging to
around 14-17 C. Strong daytime heating will lead to deep mixing,
enabling temperatures to near record values for late March. Most
of the forecast area should climb into the 80s, with some
locations potentially even making it into the mid-upper 80s.

A strong cold front will start to progress southward across PA
during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Showers and storms are
expected to develop along the front during the mid-late afternoon
hours. Further south, model soundings show signs of capping
with a remnant elevated mixed layer moving in aloft. This should
help to prevent the development of storms ahead of the front,
which will keep conditions dry through nearly all of the day in
our forecast area. The storms over PA will likely drift
southeastward toward northern Maryland around or shortly after
dark. As low- levels stabilize with loss of daytime heating, the
trend should be for these storms to gradually weaken as they
move into our forecast area after dark.

The environment to our north tomorrow across PA looks very
favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms, with a
CAPE/shear parameter space capable of producing both supercells
and bowing segments. If the timing/location of the front were
to trend faster/further south, we could get storms in that type
of environment prior to stabilization. And even if storms do
move in after dark, they could still potentially produce severe
hail, even if they`re elevated. Tomorrow is certainly a day to
watch for severe thunderstorms, but as it stands now, it may be
a near miss for most of the area, with the capping serving as a
potential saving grace.

As of now, SPC has northern Maryland and most of the eastern
panhandle of West Virginia outlooked in a Slight Risk, and the
rest of the area outlooked in a Marginal Risk. SPC also has far
northwestern portions of the forecast in a sig hail outlook
(indicating the potential for 2+" hailstones). That hints at the
potential high ceiling for the severity of storms tomorrow, if
they maintain their strength southward into our forecast area.
As of now, the most likely timing for storms looks to be between
7 PM and Midnight, with remnant showers moving southward along
with the cold front through the entire forecast area later
during the overnight hours.

Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the cold front
on Monday. Conditions will dry out and temperatures will be much
cooler (but near normal), with highs for most in the 50s and
lower 60s (40s mountains). Winds will gust to around 25-35 mph
out of the northwest

[high risk]

I still haven't seen any guidance today that suggests that SVR is possible in this area, except for those in southern PA or possibly western and northeastern MD.    We might, however, get some thunder very early Monday.   SPC might retain the MRGL where it already is for continuity, but the timing for most of us for this event is way off.

[yoda]

Morning day 1 from SPC 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Blue Box coming for Garrett, Allegany, and Washington counties.