2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[yoda]

Also, not saying we will get one here, but the derecho definition has changed

https://x.com/evan_bentley/status/2032572486982791628?s=20

 

[yoda]

Those who know better can correct me... but 18z RRFS sim radar looks ugly.  Looks like warm sector prefrontal sups appear in the afternoon with a QLCS right around sunset moving through the region

[Eskimo Joe]

Oh

 

[Nomz]

55 minutes ago, yoda said:

Those who know better can correct me... but 18z RRFS sim radar looks ugly.  Looks like warm sector prefrontal sups appear in the afternoon with a QLCS right around sunset moving through the region

Yeah it looks pretty bad, but its also the RRFS @ 84

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Nomz]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

That's about a good of a definition of the two tornado alleys as you can get.

[wxmeddler]

46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

*snip*

I'm fairly well convinced that the recent SPC changes have fundamentally altered the way higher percentages are given out. So much so that most of the SPC climatology is going to have to be tossed / step-changed. Arguably for the better though!

SPC Forecasters have repeatedly said that the % were under-done due to the way the rubric was constructed. That's why things like NadoCast and PPF's were always markedly higher. New 30%D3 is the old 15%. And that's good! I think it better conveys the actual risk. It's just going to get some getting used to.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

To my relatively novice eyes the 0z NAM run looks primed. Lapse rates, decent enough cape, and ofc insane shear.