EastonSN+ Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 23 hours ago, nycwinter said: ahead of the storm in the northeast we had arctic cold, those are days long past by for mid march. It was called a 100 year storm so unlikely to see again in our lifetime if they are correct. The arctic cold was extreme for March even back then. As long as we keep seeing snow in April we sill still get snowy March months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. Following a soaking rain on Monday, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will build in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +26.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.365 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Two years in a row of below normal Dec, Jan and Feb. Followed by above normal March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Is the Spring Equinox going to get delayed on Friday? Who gives a crap. We have seen snow many times past the Equinox. I know its harder but there is still alot of cold air around. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in long range on GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who gives a crap. We have seen snow many times past the Equinox. I know its harder but there is still alot of cold air around. Definitely going to be cool coming up but I wouldn't expect anything snow wise. Sure, we have seen snow after the equinox, but how often is it anything accumulating? Honestly, at this point, who cares about a dusting or car topper? Don't get me wrong, I'm okay with average temps, not looking for a torch or anything this early in the season, but time to pack it in with the snow now. You got your KU dude! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in long range on GFS Euro has nothing but the potential is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 35 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Definitely going to be cool coming up but I wouldn't expect anything snow wise. Sure, we have seen snow after the equinox, but how often is it anything accumulating? Honestly, at this point, who cares about a dusting or car topper? Don't get me wrong, I'm okay with average temps, not looking for a torch or anything this early in the season, but time to pack it in with the snow now. You got your KU dude! The snow will accumulate if the pattern is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Euro continues to be super wet for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Two years in a row of below normal Dec, Jan and Feb. Followed by above normal March. December (2024) and February (2025) were near normal. January being well below average made the winter BN. This December, January, and February were all well below average. The first time since January, February, and March 2015. Of course, that was followed by a near record warm May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in long range on GFS 300+ hour snowmap on the op GFS at the end of March. That deserves a double bun!! lmfaoooooo 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: 300+ hour snowmap on the op GFS at the end of March. That deserves a double bun!! lmfaoooooo Yes it does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro continues to be super wet for Monday WE need the rain so good news and with the snowpack gone less flooding risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 59 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: December (2024) and February (2025) were near normal. January being well below average made the winter BN. This December, January, and February were all well below average. The first time since January, February, and March 2015. Of course, that was followed by a near record warm May. December 2024 and February 2025 were officially below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Slight and enhanced adjusted north and east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 51 today. Blustery but still spent a lot of time outside with dog and kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: NBM 5.0: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. A storm will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region Sunday night and Monday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +10.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.305 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Some nice places for you to re-locate, Metsy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 6 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said: Some nice places for you to re-locate, Metsy! Defintely Would be awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Was great in the Catskills today at Belleayre. The snow is hanging on, but last week was brutal. Another bough of heat and wet like that and more places will be shutting down early. But today it was windy at the Belle and SNOWING! Most of the day had one and off flurries and squalls. The snow was fast but carvable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 4 hours ago, Santa Claus said: just not enough CAPE Monday but i bet there’s at least one NJ tornado Oh please. Spare me another EF-0 or EF-1 little whirlwind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Very active Monday likely. If we get higher dews/temps and more sun than forecast then wind/tornado threat goes way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Our summer forecast will probably come down to how far east this ridge can expand since it has been stuck in place since November. This month we are getting dual ridges out West and in the East. Could be some very impressive summer warmth expanding across the CONUS if we get a similar linking up between the ridges like we have had this month. But the magnitude of the coming Western warmth will be higher than in the East even though several spots like NYC experienced their earliest 80° warmth on record. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 37 / 20 . Cloudy - stuck in the 40s. Lake cutting storm pumps southerly flow later tonight and tomorrow ahead of front. Pending on clouds and rain ahead of the main front, areas could get to 70. Strong storms Monday - heavy rai , winds gusts , further southwest enhanced to moderate risk w/ islolated tornadoes. Area wide 1 inch of rain between sun night and overnight mon - tue. Could see some power disruptions with winds/wet grounds etc. Colder : 3/17 -3/18. Overall near normal / slightly cooler 3/ 19 - 3/24 before moderation warmer overall but still a bit back and forth and uncertain extent of ridge / warmth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Records: Highs: EWR: 79 (1990) NYC: 77 (1990) LGA: 74 (1990) JFK: 72 (2024) Lows: EWR: 14 (1993) NYC: 14 (1993) LGA: 14 (1993) JFK: 15 (1993) Historical: 1938: A tornado hit McPaul, Iowa, while moving from southeast to northwest. Another tornado raced through Batesville, Illinois, at 60 to 65 mph. Another tornado causing F4 damage killed 10 and injured 12 in St. Clair County, Missouri. This tornado was part of an outbreak that produced four different tornadoes and was responsible for 11 deaths and 42 injuries. 1941 - The most severe blizzard in modern history struck North Dakota and Minnesota. The blizzard hit on a Saturday night while many are traveling, and thus claimed 71 lives. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Duluth MN, and reached 85 mph at Grand Forks ND. Snow drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Minnesota. A cold front traveling 30 mph crossed Minnesota in just seven hours. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A winter storm in the western U.S. produced heavy snow in central Nevada, with 23 inches reported at Austin. High winds raked the desert areas of southern California and southern Arizona. Winds gusted to 59 mph at Douglas AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - More than one hundred hours of continuous snow finally came to an end at Marquette MI, during which time the city was buried under 43 inches of snow. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with forty-one cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Alabama to the Middle Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 at Virginia Beach VA. Low pressure in southeastern Ontario produced high winds in the northeastern U.S. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Saint Albins VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Low pressure crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley produced high winds from the Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Winds gusted to 73 mph at Iowa City IA, and wind gusts reached 79 mph at Waukesha WI. Winds of 75 mph were reported around Rapid City SD, with gusts to 100 mph. Up to a foot of snow was reported in western Iowa, western Minnesota, and extreme eastern North Dakota. Blizzard conditions were reported in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990: The maximum temperature for the date is 81 °F in Washingon, DC.(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) Cherry blossoms peak earliest ever around Tidal Basin (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac) 1992: Intense snow squalls that began 3 days earlier finally came to an end over Oswego and Onondaga counties in central New York. Palermo was buried under an incredible 85 inches of snow over the four day period. Parish checked in with 60 inches and Fulton recorded 51 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Record low minimum temperature of 8°F for March recorded at Annandale-Barcroft Hills Station after the blizzard of March 13th. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records) The minimum temperature for the date is 15 °F in Washingon, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) New Orleans, LA dropped to 31° to break their old record by 9 degrees as cold air remained in place over the East in the wake of the "Superstorm". Fort Myers, FL dropped at 39°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: 9 inches of snow on this day brought the seasonal snowfall total at Binghamton, NY to 123.2 inches, the city's snowiest winter ever. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Marquette, MI established their record for greatest snow depth with 63 inches on the ground. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Billings, Montana: A record wind gust of 63 mph for March is recorded at Billings. The old record, 61 mph, occurred in 1956. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2004: Brownsville, Texas, breaks a century-old record for the most significant daily rainfall accumulation for March with 3.23 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Latest on storms risk on Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 21 hours ago, GaWx said: The map above was not accurately made by Brian B. Examples: Providence and much of L.I. had 200+% of normal (pink), but this shows pink south of them. Bos is also too low. This has Charlotte ~normal vs actual of 300+%! It has GSO in NC in yellow vs actual of 200%! I mainly posted to show the continuing snow hole near State College. It’s difficult for the map generating program to get the grids perfect with such a large gradient involved with the snowfall. This map below has some added numerical percentages. But the resolution is always going to struggle unless you can create a more zoomed in map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Our summer forecast will probably come down to how far east this ridge can expand since it has been stuck in place since November. This month we are getting dual ridges out West and in the East. Could be some very impressive summer warmth expanding across the CONUS if we get a similar linking up between the ridges like we have had this month. But the magnitude of the coming Western warmth will be higher than in the East even though several spots like NYC experienced their earliest 80° warmth on record. This heat event will be among the most impressive heat events on record relative to climatology. It will rank up there with the March 2012, June 2021 PNW, September-October 2024 Southwest heat events in terms of peak temperatures relative to normal. The national March high temperature mark of 108° should fall. Numerous cities will surpass not just March, but also April monthly records. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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