Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale

[Wintrest]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s not going to matter much what the models look like for another few days and we should have learned this by now. I’m guess in 48hrs..probably even 24 it’ll all look different anyway. 

What is your gut feeling? The models are what they are. Some of this goes to straight historical knowledge. Genuinely curious as to your thoughts of the outcome at this juncture… what is your current read, if you had to give it? @TSSN+

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This before FRZA. Not awesome but I’d take it 

Would be my second biggest event this year out here. So yeah. 

[mitchnick]

Eps a bit further north this run.

Edit: I inserted a new map that was centered 6 hours earlier as it had more than the first. It represents the max 24hr panel on this run.

 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, Wintrest said:

What is your gut feeling? The models are what they are. Some of this goes to straight historical knowledge. Genuinely curious as to your thoughts of the outcome at this juncture… what is your current read, if you had to give it? @TSSN+

For something 5 days out I don’t have a current read. I don’t start to take it seriously till down to 3 days out. 

[Heisy]

Eps a bit further north this run.
Edit: I inserted a new map that was centered 6 hours earlier as it had more than the first. It represents the max 24hr panel on this run.
 

Mitch that’s actually the “second” event as the boundary comes N. GFS/GEFS way different

One of these models will cave on the progression, take a guess who lol

Here is gfs vs euro at 114 hours, you can see why gfs has snow at that time frame

[Heisy]

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

You know, if you sequence Pop Goes the Weasel music to that, it's almost a perfect match!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You know, if you sequence Pop Goes the Weasel music to that, it's almost a perfect match!

Good ear sir 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Good ear sir 

53 years of playing the guitar helped!

[Heisy]

You know, if you sequence Pop Goes the Weasel music to that, it's almost a perfect match!

I think it’s a half beat too slow lol.

[stormtracker]

54 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I think it’s a half beat too slow lol.

Agreed

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Good ear sir 

Disappointed in you

[konksw]

Gonna feel like early summer within a week of this. I’m ready for the patio drinks and heat. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

153 53 years of playing the guitar helped!

FYP. 

[Nomz]

Good news i'll be in Boston monday so y'all probably getting 10"

[jayyy]

I think it’s a half beat too slow lol.

It is

[stormtracker]

lol, ICON is a whole lotta nothing

[Jake Wx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, ICON is a whole lotta nothing

suppression in march, man i hate this place

[Warm Nose]

Just now, stormtracker said:

lol, ICON is a whole lotta nothing

[stormtracker]

Just now, Warm Nose said:

Might voluntarily head out for this one

[stormtracker]

Yeah, GFS is drier out west...prob gonna be drier overall from what I can see

[stormtracker]

Snow over the area at 114, but....a good bit drier for most

[stormtracker]

ATP, this is the GFS going toward the EURO.   Looks like we're tracking a 1 to 2 inch snow

[stormtracker]

Well, Pivotal says 5, so what do I know...Kuchera.  SV maps are so bad.   I dunno.  It was def drier than 18z

[NorthArlington101]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, Pivotal says 5, so what do I know...Kuchera.  SV maps are so bad.   I dunno.  It was def drier than 18z

Looks fine 

[NorthArlington101]

Looks fine 

I must say this was an off run anyway - def a lot less put together of a storm. Little precarious

[Snowman.]

CMCs a pretty big hit. Foot plus jack showing up east of DC on Kuchera

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

CMCs a pretty big hit. Foot plus jack showing up east of DC on Kuchera

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I must say this was an off run anyway - def a lot less put together of a storm. Little precarious

That’s my worry with this storm. It’s relying so much on so little energy getting amplified by a NS wave playing nice. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

That’s my worry with this storm. It’s relying so much on so little energy getting amplified by a NS wave playing nice. 

Its a thread the needle deal for sure, but as advertised the timing of that digging NS vorticity is such that there is surface HP in a favorable position, and just enough energy sliding underneath for potentially a moderate storm. Not buying the idea of 10", but 3-6 seems achievable.