March Madness

[weatherwiz]

First go around with an intensity 2 for tornadoes (also have it for hail in Texas). Very curious to see how this changes or enhances public communication or if it just adds confusion. I wonder what @OceanStWx thoughts on this conditional intensity addition is. 

[SouthCoastMA]

When was the last snowy March, regionally? Seems like ages

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Where is Ginxy’s biggun?

Masts raised?

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s Tue morning. If you rewarm sector tomorrow night it will be ravaged by dews.

He can’t handle it 

[Torch Tiger]

Snowmelt will become more accelerated Wednesday night as dewpoints
climb into the 50s and most of the snowpack outside of the
Berkshires will likely be depleted by Thursday

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

First go around with an intensity 2 for tornadoes (also have it for hail in Texas). Very curious to see how this changes or enhances public communication or if it just adds confusion. I wonder what @OceanStWx thoughts on this conditional intensity addition is. 

Why would they not hash that whole Enhanced area?

[CoastalWx]

I haven’t followed these new SPC products. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Enjoy today, rest of the month looks fairly miserable.  

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why would they not hash that whole Enhanced area?

I am still trying to gauge this new conditional intensity thing. But I am with you...seems odd the entire thing isn't filled in and what additional value does this have over the regular hatching? But I guess its to highlight what the "max intensity" may be. IDK...I feel like this is going to cause more uncertainty or even hype that isn't needed

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s so much cold not far  away in Canada. Right thru end of Morch that PV just sits up there and models show cold up there. I don’t think we are done yet. Suggest we enjoy today 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I am still trying to gauge this new conditional intensity thing. But I am with you...seems odd the entire thing isn't filled in and what additional value does this have over the regular hatching? But I guess its to highlight what the "max intensity" may be. IDK...I feel like this is going to cause more uncertainty or even hype that isn't needed

So we are getting cute and hashing 90% of the area as increased tornado threat and the other 10% is supposed to be enhanced due to other reasons? Doesn’t really make sense.

[jbenedet]

We lose the furnace tomorrow but dews staying up near 40 through tomorrow night is gonna really obliterate the pack 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So we are getting cute and hashing 90% of the area as increased tornado threat and the other 10% is supposed to be enhanced due to other reasons? Doesn’t really make sense.

If the intensity conditioning is just going to collocate with the overall probability then I don’t really see the point. That 2 area is basically painted right over the 10%.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So we are getting cute and hashing 90% of the area as increased tornado threat and the other 10% is supposed to be enhanced due to other reasons? Doesn’t really make sense.

That's how I kind of see it. So in that tornado probability that intensity 2 area is supposed to indicate if a tornado occurs, the reasonable max intensity is EF3 and the intensity 1 area is max intensity EF2. I think though this is supposed to help local forecasters and emergency management to better communication to the public but I don't see how this helps.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That's how I kind of see it. So in that tornado probability that intensity 2 area is supposed to indicate if a tornado occurs, the reasonable max intensity is EF3 and the intensity 1 area is max intensity EF2. I think though this is supposed to help local forecasters and emergency management to better communication to the public but I don't see how this helps.

I mean is it going to hurt skill scores and just shrink the enhanced area and say in this area we could see strong tornadoes? I like that part of the new products. 

[CoastalWx]

I’m not bashing it, but just trying to think about Joe the EMA guy trying to digest these products.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nahhh... everyone lost 1/3 to 1/2 of their snow under 68 F and beating sun, yesterday.

Just because you can't yet see bare ground, doesn't mean warmth was defeated.  

Man, the filtration that goes on in here looks like reality rendering at times 

Melting was less than I expected yesterday bc of the lew dews....no filtration, just a yardstick into the snow....still over a foot.

[Typhoon Tip]

I suspect this is a PR method though, developed out of a complex human equation containing lots and lots of complete dip-shit oblivion reasons. That is a large spectrum of Darwinisms that range from the higher thinking capacity of the mouth breathers, over to just general irresponsible apathy. 

Those hashing are not tapping our shoulders.  They're trying to save those non-suspecting lives and this method may "solve" that equation above - or attempts to. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean is it going to hurt skill scores and just shrink the enhanced area and say in this area we could see strong tornadoes? I like that part of the new products. 

I believe this does change the probabilities which designates the categories. For example, it looks like it will be more difficult now to get a high risk day which I think is a great idea because really if a high risk is issued...you want that to be held for days where widespread significant severe is going to happen. This may hopefully reduce more of the high risk "busts" we have seen. 

I am with you...I am definitely not bashing this either, just trying to understand it more. But with what you said I think makes sense and if that is the case and purpose I can understand it a bit better. 

I'm sure there is some literature on this, I've only read the little bit on the SPC site. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Melting was less than I expected yesterday bc of the lew dews....no filtration, just a yardstick into the snow....still over a foot.

We lost 1/2 fwiw -

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

We lost 1/2 fwiw -

Yesterday alone?

False...not where I am....I didn't lose 7".

[dendrite]

You could give people a bowl of oranges and ask them what color they are and half of them would tell you blue or purple. Joe public isn’t too bright.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I had 23-25" depth at peak, now I have 13-15"...so have lost 10" off of peak depth....nothing to argue there; I took the measurements...it's ground truth. 30-50% loss in total, yes....about dead-on.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yesterday alone?

False...not where I am....I didn't lose 7".

"we" meaning in this area here

Aside, the post was about 'warm being defeated' ... some were using snow as the observational proxy in that, which was dumb and proves a filtration bias in the first place because it was warm yesterday. 

Frankly, I care less about the snow stuff anyway.  We did lose a substantial amount though.  It looks like half..

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yesterday alone?

False...not where I am....I didn't lose 7".

Tw’s were still in the mid 40s. It’s softening up and getting more primed though.

Today will be a more efficient melter up here…warmer, higher dews, and less cirrus taint.

Put a stick on top of your pack and see how far it sinks through today.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just patchy at this point, and some coverage remaining across shielded areas.  not sure it counts as 'snow cover'. I'll call the streak at 43 days

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

Tw’s were still in the mid 40s. It’s softening up and getting more primed though.

Today will be a more efficient melter up here…warmer, higher dews, and less cirrus taint.

Put a stick on top of your pack and see how far it sinks through today.

I agree, it will go faster today...yesterday the dews slowed it, which was my original point.

[ineedsnow]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s Tue morning. If you rewarm sector tomorrow night it will be ravaged by dews.

I can walk on this and there's plenty left right now.. some knew 

[Brian5671]

you know it's over when the conversation is about how fast the leftover snowpack and piles will melt

[Kitz Craver]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s so much cold not far  away in Canada. Right thru end of Morch that PV just sits up there and models show cold up there. I don’t think we are done yet. Suggest we enjoy today 

Not a zero percent chance for something to pop