March Madness

[Damage In Tolland]

Nothing else shows snow except Ai. Probably wrong 

[dendrite]

Do we install for Wed night?

[amarshall]

Pack destruction. My 2 ft in the yard losing 6-10" per day . Never thought it would go this fast. 

Also random pines dropping overnight.  Stragglers from the blizzard

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One thing that is very noticeable is the frost heaves (or whatever the opposite of those are called…thaw heaves) on the state highways around here.   Coming back from ORH last night the bumps on Rte 68 almost launched us

Honestly it’s felt like everything has gotten twice as bad in the last week.  What were small undulations in the road like 7-10 days ago are now speed bumps.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing else shows snow except Ai. Probably wrong 

Seasons in seasons has fully transitioned to morch welcome aboard the warm train. 

[The 4 Seasons]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

why is this all crazy looking

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

why is this all crazy looking

He put it through the weathergeek AI modulator

[dendrite]

I assume he copied it from IOS images and it tried auto cropping the image

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, dendrite said:

I assume he copied it from IOS images and it tried auto cropping the image

that makes more sense

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I assume he copied it from IOS images and it tried auto cropping the image

Honestly I don’t know. Just copy and saved the image.

[CoastalWx]

Gives you the idea anyway.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do we install for Wed night?

Dews to Maines 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Dews to Maines 

Bare to Bangor 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Bare to Bangor 

Benny Noll gone wild 

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/2030622059198656767?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[radarman]

1/16SM fog 

[Typhoon Tip]

Definitive back edge is now more evident on higher res vis loop moving at CC compressed hyper velocity ...  yikes (lol).   Skies will probably go partly sunny with mostly sunny moments over the next hours, E of the Berkshires.  

Over the western Hills ... Greens and Whites likely to deal with cap b.s. 

We're inverted, but there are scud strata filaments racing between the mid and upper level band and the inversion, so there's definitely a breeze off the deck. This will be the end of the inversion today as when the sun goes to work ( and it's quite strong now), the two will finally say goodbye to that nasty nasty high pressure/BD's lingering static clinging cold along the coastal plain. 

Soundings would allow 60s easily, but with the snow pack there's probably a lot of variability ... Kind of like a hockey stadium, with 40 over the melting plains, and 60 walking down towns.  

[jbenedet]

The side streets took an absolute beating. I’m seeing streets that were paved within last three years look like they haven’t been in over 10.

[Spanks45]

57 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Back in late Jan i didnt think we'd make it till march but we dont burn 24/7. Then we went away early feb for ski vacation and suddenly the excess is obvious. I hate having it in the garage all summer.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah I hate having to store the leftovers over the summer...I picked up half a cord from someone local last week, hoping for something somewhat descent. Needless to say I will have to season it for another 6 months, despite their claims of 16%

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Definitive back edge is now more evident on higher res vis loop moving at CC compressed hyper velocity ...  yikes (lol).   Skies will probably go partly sunny with mostly sunny moments over the next hours, E of the Berkshires.  

Over the western Hills ... Greens and Whites likely to deal with cap b.s. 

We're inverted, but there are scud strata filaments racing between the mid and upper level band and the inversion, so there's definitely a breeze off the deck. This will be the end of the inversion today as when the sun goes to work ( and it's quite strong now), the two will finally say goodbye to that nasty nasty high pressure/BD's lingering static clinging cold along the coastal plain. 

Soundings would allow 60s easily, but with the snow pack there's probably a lot of variability ... Kind of like a hockey stadium, with 40 over the melting plains, and 60 walking down towns.  

I do wonder though, how much of a positive offset —this time of year— is the absence of tree foliage, from our latitude to all points upwind in the northern mid Atlantic.

[jbenedet]

Already feels too warm for a coat and the sun didn’t break yet.

[dendrite]

Had a few peeks here, but it clouded right back up. That westerly flow should pick up soon and clear us out up here.

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

46/46 down to about 50% coverage .. 50s with dews entering western CT. Should be left with just piles by this evening .. 

Going to be a great spring with lots of already green lawns and flowerbeds that were preserved in snow.  

The amount of surface water down here is nuts.  Everyone's sump pumps are running like crazy the last few days. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I do wonder though, how much of a positive offset —this time of year— is the absence of tree foliage, from our latitude to all points upwind in the northern mid Atlantic.

Yeah some perhaps positive feedback there but ... not sure it's enough to offset a white cocained earth.  ha...   

It's a micro feedback science thing, right.   

anyway, I'm not sure if we don't pancake too.  may have to go through an hour or so of that while we cycle through the first boundary layer rotation.  

yeah but wow, it feels like pithier warmth ...  Sun's out here in the last moments so we'll see if the ceiling holds.  It's 53/49.  

[ineedsnow]

NAM is still cool on Tuesday.. southerly wind off a cold ocean? 

[jbenedet]

Sun is out. We torch. 
 

Everyone is out.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hard to say on that ... 

Will seems to think we get 10 days of favorable looks out this post Ides pattern but I'm not as confident.  Could be. 

It seems this week's about getting rid of the snow pack ( seasonal recession)...  Then yeah, we could certainly re-brick the top soil for a gif.  I think we're good for at least that much before truly escaping.   But without the geographic pan-dimensional cryosphere helping to continue the enabling party, the sun will begin to both modulate the pattern pretty fast going forward, as well as mangle the days and bust most guidance the standard 2 or 3 ticks too cold as we approach and exceed the Equinox.  

The early April bowling season is in place every year so that's separate.  But the generalized pattern foot is entering higher variability and lesser dependency due to seasonal forcing.     

But, this +PNA aspect in the index prognostics is not 10 days long.  It's a 3 day quiet and quick amplitude. Even the L/W cinema in the guidance is rotating that axis through rather quickly.  I'm actually already seeing signatures of rapider recovery back to a flat -PNAP structure out there post the 20th.    

That's been the tenor of the last 20 years - lessening dependability of index outlooks.  Lessening time spans of pattern residence.  It's not just the modeling stochastics.  The indexes themselves, which are in theory based upon the larger super synoptic mass field and thus should modulate slower than the dailies, seem to be modulating faster than that theory.   I could be the technology itself, sort of too much of a good thing without being enough of a good thing... so they create their own error. Or, it's something with CC that makes things more top heavy (latitude) so we're rolling Rossby signature faster.  It's an interesting study.  

But that also means the +PNA --> +PNAP expression could host an event in that 15-19th period, and just not be very well represented ( at this time) in the standard version. I'm aware the AI's are less bashful there.   Possible.  

That's the way these next two weeks look to me as of Sunday morning over -caffeinating

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM is still cool on Tuesday.. southerly wind off a cold ocean? 

If there's a SSW or S wind flow off the Bite waters there's going to be cooling modulation, however the model's likely too cold to begin with... 

It's like raise that 7 to 10 F.   

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If there's a SSW or S wind flow off the Bite waters there's going to be cooling modulation, however the model's likely too cold to begin with... 

It's like raise that 7 to 10 F.   

Yeah take the over. Well over. Except for south coast 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

46/46 down to about 50% coverage .. 50s with dews entering western CT. Should be left with just piles by this evening .. 

impressive meltoff there. It’s impressive here too. The last 24 hours here has been crazy. Taken an absolute beating. We still have more work to do, but for the first time in eons, the grass is showing on the edges of the snow and we can see a lot of rocks popping up in the woods out back. I hadn’t seen these huge boulders since mid January. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

It’s unveiling a mess. Branches all over. Branches on my roof. Bird bath broke. Lot of clean up to do.