March Madness

[JACKASS]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m still not sure that’s equivalent

Doesn’t seem like it really is

It’s happened in July there more than once? I really don’t know, but that’s kind of a defining difference. This is the first time this has happened down there apparently. Hence the record. And actually… Now that I think about it that’s not defining anything really because something happens one in 10 just can have bad luck and not happen and then something that’s one in 30 can happen three times so that actually doesn’t mean shit.

The other method is just look at the average high down there at this time of year and consider the departure and then look at the average low temperature up there during a climate relevant time of year and consider that departure.  

I guess the scaler value of the anomaly plus whether or not it has happened befor and all that jazz. 

That’s the other thing … might be easier circumstantially geographically/geologically up there in July then it should be down there in Texas in February which is I don’t know it all seems really dubious

 

The west has been breaking warm records all winter. Should it be a surprise to see this happening?

I don't know, I'm asking.

Edit: quoted the wrong post. Meant to quote your post before this one.

Edit 2: Pasted the quote i meant into the quote box, but the link back might be fucked up, lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

The west has been breaking warm records all winter. Should it be a surprise to see this happening?

I don't know, I'm asking.

Well, those two can be mutually exclusive
It’s not a bad question

but the baseline synopsis of the winter has been favoring, western ridge eastern trough.  This has been setting up in varying degrees of amplitude, and sort of shuffling around, but it in the means… has been essentially that.

At a basic level that correlates with warmer weather in the west and cooler weather in the east. 

What’s going on in Texas? Not exactly the same thing. There had to be other circumstances that fed into that.  Just looking at the basic pressure pattern they are drawing Mexico plateau air d-slope across the Rio Grande …  Could be a kind of a south to north pointed local regional chinook/compressional heating assist. 

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

This is not normal in Denver

https://x.com/bianchiweather/status/2027435465356513487?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[JACKASS]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well, those two can be mutually exclusive
It’s not a bad question

but the baseline synopsis of the winner has been favoring, western ridge eastern trough.  This has been setting up in varying degrees of amplitude and sort of shuffling around, but it in the means… has been essentially that 

At a basic level that correlates with warmer weather in the west and cooler weather in the east. 

What’s going on in Texas? Not exactly the same thing. There had to be other circumstances that fed into that.  Just looking at the basic pressure pattern they are drawing Mexico plateau air d-slope across the Rio Grande …  Could be a kind of a south to north pointed local regional chinook/compressional heating assist. 

Appreciate your thoughts!

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m still not sure that’s equivalent

Doesn’t seem like it really is

It’s happened in July there more than once? I really don’t know, but that’s kind of a defining difference. This is the first time this has happened down there apparently. Hence the record. And actually… Now that I think about it that’s not defining anything really because something happens one in 10 just can have bad luck and not happen and then something that’s one in 30 can happen three times so that actually doesn’t mean shit.

The other method is just look at the average high down there at this time of year and consider the departure and then look at the average low temperature up there during a climate relevant time of year and consider that departure.  

I guess the scaler value of the anomaly plus whether or not it has happened befor and all that jazz. 

That’s the other thing … might be easier circumstantially geographically/geologically up there in July then it should be down there in Texas in February which is I don’t know it all seems really dubious

 

42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Laredo has done 100° in Feb many times…they had 3 straight days in 1986 including a 103°.

That Laredo stat feels like similar to a 32F in the coldest rad pits up here in summer?

I dunno, just asking the question.

[tavwtby]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is not normal in Denver

https://x.com/bianchiweather/status/2027435465356513487?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

wasn't 1980 also the summer with the massive heat wave, followed by a really cold winter? if my child hood memory serves me right. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Laredo has done 100° in Feb many times…they had 3 straight days in 1986 including a 103°.

Well, they apparently broke a record so don’t quote me. That’s just what’s going on out there.
Maybe bullshit on the Internet

Lol, that never happens

The question at hand is whether it’s an equivalent anomaly to one of these chilly summer nights up there northern New England, I guess

Too wit … I really don’t know the answer to that I just brought it up because I was wanting the conversation

I just saw another post that said 106

[dendrite]

Well Laredo hit 103° yesterday as well…so comparable.

The difference today is you have a lot more meso stations mixed in over the landscape. So a 104° or 105° somewhere yesterday may have been the same back then.

But yeah it’s freakin hot and early for it…but it’s been more common in recent years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

March Preview: 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/latter-january-early-february-display.html

Looks bad for my preseason forecast right now, but I do thin there is eventually going to be some blocking that isn't being picked up get....the stratospheric zonal wind reversal being delayed has really thrown a wrench into my anticipated timing of the pattern progression...looks like mid March is the shot instead of early month.

 

[metagraphica]

lol...what's going on here?

[tunafish]

Aliens

[ineedsnow]

NAM and RGEM look like they would pretty icy beyond hr 84

[ineedsnow]

Let's try to bring 1998 further south

 

[CoastalWx]

Extremely boring and mild starting later  this week. Too bad we can’t squeeze in one more. 

[CoastalWx]

I know GFS has a few inches going to rain later this week, but I mean something that would be decently frozen. Right now it just looks mild overall.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of cold upnthere in SE Canada. Beware 

[ORH_wxman]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of cold upnthere in SE Canada. Beware 

It doesn’t advect into us enough for lots of frozen. We might get lots of CAD 37F drizzle/rain during the warmup. But might still need to watch end of next week given how obscenely strong that Quebec high gets. 
 

I do think we will have another window of chances starting sometime around mid-month though. PV keeps sinking toward Hudson Bay on ensembles. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Giant bare spot forming on my south facing lawn. Let’s go!

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It doesn’t advect into us enough for lots of frozen. We might get lots of CAD 37F drizzle/rain during the warmup. But might still need to watch end of next week given how obscenely strong that Quebec high gets. 
 

I do think we will have another window of chances starting sometime around mid-month though. PV keeps sinking toward Hudson Bay on ensembles. 

It’s just such a cold and strong HP. Couldn’t that trend colder as we get closer?

[Kitz Craver]

SER is also on roids…

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

SER is also on roids…

Right through mid month. No blocking to be seen. Need the EPO ridge more east. Maybe I’ll be fertilizing by St Patrick’s Day. Erin Go Lesco?

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right through mid month. No blocking to be seen. Need the EPO ridge more east. Maybe I’ll be fertilizing by St Patrick’s Day. Erin Go Lesco?

Yup… I was reading Ray’s March update and as Will said, quite mild until mid month and perhaps a shot at one last bout of winter weather as PV sinks towards Hudson Bay 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yup… I was reading Ray’s March update and as Will said, quite mild until mid month and perhaps a shot at one last bout of winter weather as PV sinks towards Hudson Bay 

PV does try to move south but ridge is a little too far west for my liking this time of year. Hopefully shifts east. 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Extremely boring and mild starting later  this week. Too bad we can’t squeeze in one more. 

 

 

[dendrite]

Tenor will save us

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Tenor will save us

Tenor would mean 40 and rain now.

[Ginx snewx]

Remember when some astute posters said this was over? Torch sure but looking at the forest make sure you see the trees. 

[CoastalWx]

Unfortunately a waste 

[dendrite]

Euro op 2m temps have been shit…but yeah there will be some in and out cold. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately a waste 

Oh its only about snow now lol isn't a torch with 14 to 20 OTG bigger waste. Unless you like running water and eventually mud.