March Madness

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's still a balance in play it's just that warmth will win out in most cases. And occasionally you get very anomalous events like the freezing temps in South Florida. 

yup.

It is ridiculous though how the media tries to hype and tie everything into climate change...not every single sensible weather event is product of cc or can even be tied into cc. Anytime there is a flood, drought, tornadoes...the media says "CC is causing it"...that is ridiculous 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This used to be pushed a lot more in the mainstream years ago versus now. I think there was a study like 8-9 years ago that went viral in mainstream about decreasing snow averages from CC....it projected something like a 40% reduction in mean snowfall by 2035 for cities like BOS and ORH. The study didn't pass the smell test to anyone who knows anything about snowfall climo or how it relates to temperatures/QPF combo....but it didn't stop the narrative being spread far and wide. 

 

All this does is create misconceptions and distorted expectations....which then can be used cynically to discredit the idea of CC even existing. Some of CC's most enthusiastic proponents do the most to destroy its credibility in a twist of irony. 

1000%. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yup.

there is a misconception that climate change means no more snow or no more cold...that is totally untrue. 

Oh it'll be true in 200 years...  heh, whence the Boston and NY City skylines are sticking out of the ocean like old mooring poles of an ancient abandoned harbor.  

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Ensembles are slowly coming around to the idea of one last hurrah pattern starting sometime near mid-month and we'll see how long it can hold on against climo that turns hostile pretty quickly. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are slowly coming around to the idea of one last hurrah pattern starting sometime near mid-month and we'll see how long it can hold on against climo that turns hostile pretty quickly. 

That’s after the 70’s to near 80 period…is that correct. 

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s after the 70’s to near 80 period…is that correct. 

How was the Gaspe?  I've heard the north shore is excellent right now and while the south shore is fine, there is a noticeable difference in snow amounts this year.   

[Donut Hole]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To Will's point from earlier check out the 12z GFS's eastern Canada high    1050!

What day is that?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The CMC is the only other operational standard model that isn't suppressed with that.   The AI versions are also on board. Given recent performance of the AI's overall, I reluctantly give a nod to them because regardless of the fact that we don't get to know exactly how they actually come up with their solutions... we are stuck with them

Anyway, it's an interesting "little critter that bites" look there.  Huge March diabatic assist, couched in those 550s thickness rubbing up against LI latitude, whilst cold air banked N.  Lifting that air over ...   [ lotta of science words ] ... where it snows it has a shot at over performance.  

It's also been on and off the charts for a several days of the extended.   Big con however is that the present EPS and GEFs ens means are pieces of shit with that and all but don't even see a little critter, either.  More like a gnat on a windshield

[kdxken]

45 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Everything is cc…excellent.  We have a thread.  Moving on.  Nice EPS signal again for next week. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Highly unlikely SNE does a sub 32 high in April. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Donut Hole said:

What day is that?

Oh my bad. I'm always scolding other people for doing that.  ha

it's heading into the morning of the 6th, so in a week.

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

How was the Gaspe?  I've heard the north shore is excellent right now and while the south shore is fine, there is a noticeable difference in snow amounts this year.   

Absolutely Terrific. Tons of snow everywhere.  The only local minimum we observed was one town on the south shore called New Richmond…they had less than most every other area(especially right in the town itself…nothing bad though), but every other area on the south shore was excellent.  Incredible area to see.  The wilderness and mountains inside that peninsula is vast and astounding. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Highly unlikely SNE does a sub 32 high in April. 

I don't think it happens this year, but it does happen every once in a while. I believe they've gone as late as mid-May (in 2023, and that was after a very warm winter).

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

We will see…

[ORH_wxman]

<= 32F high temperature is difficult even at ORH in April...only 7 Aprils have pulled it off since 1990 (a couple of them did do it on multiple days like 2016)....they are significantly easier to pull off even 2 weeks earlier in the 3rd week of March. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

<= 32F high temperature is difficult even at ORH in April...only 7 Aprils have pulled it off since 1990 (a couple of them did do it on multiple days like 2016)....they are significantly easier to pull off even 2 weeks earlier in the 3rd week of March. 

How about that blizzard in 1982 or 1984  ... ? 

I think one of those had high Ts crashing through the teens while that was going nuts.  My uncle at the time told me the Charles froze back over by the following morning...  short lived of course.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How about that blizzard in 1982 or 1984  ... ? 

I think one of those had high Ts crashing through the teens while that was going nuts.  My uncle at the time told me the Charles froze back over by the following morning...  short lived of course.

Coldest April high on record for ORH in the '82 bizzard....high of 21F and low of 11F the second day of that storm as it was winding down. 

[ORH_wxman]

As impressive as the '82 temps were, I actually think the 4/5/95 cold outbreak was more impressive. It was bare ground and bluebird skies....full sunshine. ORH put up a 26/12 that day....that is beyond crazy for such conditions in early April. I remember that day vividly because I had to walk to and from middle school in that....across an open sports field too part of the way. The wind was like razor blades into your face. 

[Donut Hole]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh my bad. I'm always scolding other people for doing that.  ha

it's heading into the morning of the 6th, so in a week.

Thanks, looking for any glimmer of hope that Northern Vermont stay all frozen precip for March  5-7 ski trip. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh it'll be true in 200 years...  heh, whence the Boston and NY City skylines are sticking out of the ocean like old mooring poles of an ancient abandoned harbor.  

 

 

GWWBA

glad we won't be alive

[tamarack]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

<= 32F high temperature is difficult even at ORH in April...only 7 Aprils have pulled it off since 1990 (a couple of them did do it on multiple days like 2016)....they are significantly easier to pull off even 2 weeks earlier in the 3rd week of March. 

Farther north, we've had only 10 days in 27 Aprils with maxima 32 or colder, only 3 below 30 and the 24 during a modest snowfall on 5/2003 is lowest by 5°.

200 miles NNE in Fort Kent, such maxima are much more common, 3.1/yr vs. 0.37/yr.  Of course, the 1970s-80s were also colder than 1999 onward.  We recorded 31 such days in our 10 Aprils there, 30 of which were 23 to 32, plus the 17 max for the 4/7/82 blizzard.

[tamarack]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As impressive as the '82 temps were, I actually think the 4/5/95 cold outbreak was more impressive. It was bare ground and bluebird skies....full sunshine. ORH put up a 26/12 that day....that is beyond crazy for such conditions in early April. I remember that day vividly because I had to walk to and from middle school in that....across an open sports field too part of the way. The wind was like razor blades into your face. 

We lived in Gardiner in 1995 and the afternoon high was 16 with winds gusting to near 50, but it was 31 at my 9 PM obs time the evening before, probably the 2d worst "midnight spoil" max I can recall.  Worst was March 6, 2007, when the afternoon high of -2 was wrecked by the 19 at 9 the previous evening.  March 2017 had one that ranks with 4/95, 14° at 9 PM on 3/10 followed by a zero for afternoon high.  Co=ops with 7 AM obs time have preserved those cold afternoons. 
(1st CT Lake had a high of -24 on Dec 26, 1980 thanks to the 7 AM protocol.  Mt Mansfield has tied that mark and MWN has numerous colder ones, but nothing in New England below 3000' asl can match it.)