Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hrrr is toasty. 37 for a high imby tomorrow. Probably white rain for a time. 

Rap similar as Hrrr and with mby. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hrrr is toasty. 37 for a high imby tomorrow. Probably white rain for a time. 

I think most the accumulation doesn’t come to after 3pm no matter what anyways. If we can get anything during the day that will just help boost totals. 

[baltosquid]

HRRR looks either east or drier to me tbh

[Curlyq]

Do I need to get the snowblower out?

 

[paulythegun]

Compared to 18z, 00z HRRR is a MASSIVE jump east.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I think most the accumulation doesn’t come to after 3pm no matter what anyways. If we can get anything during the day that will just help boost totals. 

I'll take a drive or 2 up to Pigeon Hills and I guarantee you they'll be all snow with temps so close as what's progged. Happened several times since I've been up here.

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, baltosquid said:

HRRR looks either east or drier to me tbh

Drier and thus warmer for many. And maybe east too. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

[jayyy]

NAMing incoming soon if the latest SREFs are the indicator. 0z HRRR not as good as 18z

[jayyy]

That’s not a massive jump east lol. It’s just weaker

[AmericanWxFreak]

HRRR was slower with the northern peice of energy


.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Compared to 18z, 00z HRRR is a MASSIVE jump east.

Not really. Also I wouldn’t put much stock in the hrrr outside its normal 18 hour range 

[JakkelWx]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Not really. Also I wouldn’t put much stock in the hrrr outside its normal 18 hour range 

Yeah i have no idea WTF he's talking about.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

That’s not a massive jump east lol. It’s just weaker

20 miles west and it's near identical to 18z imho. Just a slight jog this run.

[bncho]

how mt. mclean does this i'm not sure.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Nice backside love

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

20 miles west and it's near identical to 18z imho. Just a slight jog this run.

It’s still snowing long than 18z run 

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

HRRR was slower with the northern peice of energy


.

I think JB was talking about the southern lobe of the LP over the GL and how the euro was holding it back slightly before it joined with the eastern LP and that was what was causing the euro to have lower impact totals.  Maybe the HRRR is doing the same thing?

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s not a massive jump east lol. It’s just weaker

Its more south than east. Probably just as good for us.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Compared to 18z, 00z HRRR is a MASSIVE jump east.

Pauly, put the gun down and have yourself a drink! 

[bncho]

back end is much better too

[paulythegun]

Pauly, put the gun down and have yourself a drink! 

Haha ok, on it. Plus it's hrrr, who cares?

[MillvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

HRRR looks either east or drier to me tbh

It is for the western edges but not for the CCB area. That actually improved. A lot of the drier look is from the initial wave being drier upfront. It was too warm at the surface and likely plays a role in the PBL and expected transition later. Will have to monitor that. NAMNest seems to be handling those thermals well, so I’d put more stock in that right now. 

5 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Compared to 18z, 00z HRRR is a MASSIVE jump east.

Surprisingly, I thought the same, but turns out not to be the case. It’s almost on top of its 18z positioning at 06z Monday at the same 979 strength. Key is the western area was drier while the CCB juiced up. Still churning and burning with a hell of a snowfall for the eastern shore to the northeast. I’m on the edge, but even still 6-8” with it still snowing. Model ratio snow calculation has been excellent in these scenarios, so I’ll be paying close attention to it tomorrow as we move forward. 

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hrrr is toasty. 37 for a high imby tomorrow. Probably white rain for a time. 

~.4qpf before the surface gets to 32 (not taking into effect evap cooling), and over 1 inch qpf after that until midday Monday. Amazing if it happens. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, bncho said:

back end is much better too

This event is gonna blow for 95 and west .  Been doing this a long time.  If I wrong I still win.  

[Ji]

back end is much better too

Dont let raven see this

[baltosquid]

That backend snow is nice. If I could lock in something plausible, give me warning level up front then some snow globe stuff in daytime for a couple inches. That is the ideal outcome. But I am a little nervous about that not delivering; feels like it often doesn’t.

[bncho]

The NAM has started. Prepare to get demolished.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dont let raven see this

hanging slider right there

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

back end is much better too

Tell us more.