bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: I believe In a storm I felt was going to be a hit a week ago In a storm nobody thought was possible In a Nat 20 out of nowhere In models that are trending in the right direction for once In a chance for an HECS 00z is when we're going to reel it in. @bncho's riveting pbp Bring it home. probably retiring from PBP. if randy says I suck i must really suck 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now perhaps this isn't for this thread oer se, but perhaps still on topic...how do you calculate those ratios? Layman question, lol Use a blend of model guidance which have their own ratio calculations and apply weights. We do that ourselves as the forecaster. I look at soundings and lots of other variables to create my own in-house SLR output which starts from the NBM and work from there. It’s a cool process and a lot of work, but we use every tool in the toolbox sometimes! 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: Would snow depth maps be a better use for this storm? Cut the accumulations on the 10:1 maps in half for this event? Or would that be over doing it? . I think there’s going to be quite a range of ratios. If you’re in the coastal CCB or the core of the IVT, 10-12:1 probably? Maybe better? Outside of that more like 8:1? But maybe as low as 5:1 in warm spots with poor rates? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 40 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Anyone smarter than me explain why Kuchie is lower than 10:1? Marginal temps? Yes-let's be real though-snowdepth is the real measure of snow and we rarely see those maps lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, bncho said: probably retiring from PBP. if randy says I suck i must really suck Practice, friend. You will get better. The greats aren't made in a day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Would snow depth maps be a better use for this storm? Cut the accumulations on the 10:1 maps in half for this event? Or would that be over doing it? . Nobody wants to say it but yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I think there’s going to be quite a range of ratios. If you’re in the coastal CCB or the core of the IVT, 10-12:1 probably? Maybe better? Outside of that more like 8:1? But maybe as low as 5:1 in warm spots with poor rates?Yea, makes sense. Thanks. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not speaking of the NBM specifically, but rather ratios in general- some of the modeled soundings show very impressive vertical lift(omega) through the DGZ with surface temps at 32 over this way at certain points in the storm- how high could the ratios be in that scenario? 15-1 maybe? I believe I had your ratios at the storm height around 10-12:1, but there could easily banding that eclipses that. 15:1 max within a CCB banded structure or within the norlun trough is plausible, but I would lean towards 8-10:1 storm average overall. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1114 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Is this possible??. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Is this possible??.Dont see it. Cut the “c” totals in half i think. Lots of wet snow without accumulation throughout the day sunday, i think. Hope i am wrong!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Orange'd before the 0z suite comes in 8 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Orange'd before the 0z suite comes in I suspect WSW for most of NOVA later tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Been discussed earlier but was at my sons basketball, didn’t realize the ai euro and ai ensembles moved so far west. We’ve seen this a million times with events when we’re in the bullseye and then a trend starts and doesn’t stop. Maybe finally we’re on the right side of it? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I suspect WSW for most of NOVA later tonight I've never noticed them before, do you know what the two thick black lines in the graphic represent Era, duh nevermind now I see how they've broken it into three zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 0Z HRRR is amped big time. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: I've never noticed them before, do you know what the two thick black lines in the graphic represent? They separate the 95 corridor area from the Shen/Piedmont region etc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: I've never noticed them before, do you know what the two thick black lines in the graphic represent Era, duh nevermind now I see how they've broken it into three zones. It was answered below. I’m at a Wizards game watching them figure out how to lose. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not sure its that warm. It was mostly frozen a week or so ago. As of Thursday this week on my way home frome work, it was open with very little ice floating around by the bay bridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 HRRR!!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: HRRR!!! Take control of the 0z suite tonight, it’s yours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: HRRR!!! I like that look more than any other model I’ve seen. Most of them have Frederick on the western envelope of the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: They separate the 95 corridor area from the Shen/Piedmont region etc Aka the snowstorm from the meh lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, bncho said: HRRR!!! That is a nice look. Best we’ve seen yet from the hrrr. Way outside of range, but again a piece of guidance we want to in our camp like the rest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Eh, 21z Rap is no slouch either. Plenty more to go after this panel with a nice bowling ball of circled 500mb Heights to the west yet to come through. And if scroll back to an earlier panel you notice that in the last panel attached a new slp is starting to reform tucked in along the coast. That's what the Gfs had in its first bomb of 2-4'! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 WB 0Z HRRR..look at the pressure leaning NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 LWX’s range map shows how uncertain the forecast is at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z HRRR..look at the pressure leaning NW. Same as the Rap map I posted above and mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: I like that look more than any other model I’ve seen. Most of them have Frederick on the western envelope of the goods. A lot of that comes down to the initial advance of precip before the coastal takes over. Few of the other models are giving that much of a thought, and from the looks of it the HRRR is actually wetter with that batch than even the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NAM looks more phasey and heights are higher... but it's early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 +PNA ridge is better too is this the NAMming of the decade? that will be TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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