TSSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: Ohtay. We're off and running... Must not know where dc is located 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 21z SREF mean Precip shield depiction (expanded NW) makes sense given the strength/location of the storm on this run (albeit probably a bit too smoothed over with totals given the banding setup and norlun wildcard)I get that NYC is a better place to be than Baltimore for this one - I cashed in on these setups 100x when I lived in NY - but I REALLY think there’s still a lot of boom potential for the I-95 corridor, especially for Baltimore proper. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Must not know where dc is located Did DC get moved to NJ? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Maestrobjwa make an obs thread @Maestrobjwa you are on call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, bncho said: Did DC get moved to NJ? In your snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: Ohtay. We're off and running... Maybe it's centimeters? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, AlexD1990 said: Gimme dat orange or red The graphics and the actual forecast don't always align. Not sure why you aren't in the orange. Some of the hi-res guidance indicates some sleet there..that being said the text based detailed forecast for there is 9-15". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 34 minutes ago, bncho said: 2/22-23 First and Final Call Forecast from the JV Team Hopefully, the maps are pretty self-explanatory. This has been a very dynamic, tough-to-forecast storm. There have been many factors in which small changes upstream have led to large changes downstream. The GFS has undoubtedly crushed all the other models on this storm, but it was not enough to give us the HECS we were all looking for, just missing us and slamming New England. Still, a substantial snowfall is on the table and is poised to break the curse of late-February in DMV winters. Precipitation will start at approximately 4-5 AM, gradually increasing in intensity. This precipitation will start as cold rain for most areas, with temperatures generally around 35 to 40. As we get into the late morning hours, however, a transition to a rain/snow mix will occur before changing to all snow in the mid-afternoon. But any snow that falls before 5 PM will struggle to accumulate, due to still-marginal temperatures (between 34 and 38) and a stronger February sun angle. As we get into the nighttime hours, precipitation will ramp up as the surface gets colder, likely hovering around 32. This is due to the deepening low, which will intensify rapidly. There will be two main bands during this. A norlun trough band west of the fall line and a larger CCB band mainly east of the fall line. Both of these bands will feature a much fluffier snow at a ratio of 12:1 or more, with snowfall rates between 1-2” per hour. There will likely be a subsidence zone that receives much less than the surrounding areas due to the banding. Precipitation should exit the area Monday morning, leaving a beautiful, clingy, late-winter-esque wet snow on the ground. We will refer to it as the slop storm that could, but New England will refer to it as the Blizzard of ‘26. This system was extremely hard to forecast and an extreme roller coaster ride. But it’s happening soon. Thank you all for tolerating me on this journey, and let’s get buried! Solid write up, I really like it however I can’t see your map. You’re talking to a retired army guy and I swear by maps and we have a bunch of old farts in here too that may struggle to see what you’re talking about. Overall I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Storms like this i always think of the old days when would always say...tge heaviest snow always ends up further northwest than modeled...shut up dummy Not even really the old days. This still occurs pretty frequently. Being modeled JUST too far NW of the goods is not a bad place to be in a marginal setup with a bombing LP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: @Maestrobjwa you are on call Tbh I don't feel like it, but okay I will. Hang on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: Ohtay. We're off and running... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Tbh I don't feel like it, but okay I will. Hang on Dude you need to seek some help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Ji said: What’s this ? Some weather site with too many crayons and a bad sense of location. I especially like the way DC gets more than Boston and NY...this popped up on Facebook. I'm sure it sent a few people running to stock up until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Dude you need to seek some help. What is it with Christians and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: Ohtay. We're off and running... Lol I saw this earlier on Facebook. Thought about reporting it for fake news 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: The graphics and the actual forecast don't always align. Not sure why you aren't in the orange. Some of the hi-res guidance indicates some sleet there..that being said the text based detailed forecast for there is 9-15". Sleet? SLEET? don't you say that word lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Dude you need to seek some help. Big time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: LOL goddamn DC is Cambridge now lol X freaks 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Ji said: What is it with Christians and snow It appears to only be this Christian. I don’t think i have ever even see you lose it to this extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Ji said: What is it with Christians and snow In our area its because they worship things you don't see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Ji said: What’s this ? Fake news because the legend for DC is not 31.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I look at this storm as it’s a miller b and we’re lucky to even be playing Sorta when the redskins made the nfc title last year 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Shut up craig! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago What are we looking at 12 hours from onset, as an indicator of likely outcome? Hrrr, nam, current radar? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Anything is possible with this models anymore. Our early December snow looks like 4-6” a day out and that went to crap real fast inside 12hrs as it shifted nw Again, fail due to NW trend. That's good in our case (I know you kniw.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Feb 22nd/23rd "There's now way..." Obs Thread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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