2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[baltosquid]

I'm behind on pivotal but in addition to better heights on either end, the euro is de-emphasizing the trailing vort (the one in the midwest, not the first one) at 24hrs. That probably helps!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Why do Storm Vista maps look like they came from the Atari 2600

I swear the only thing you pay for is getting stuff 10 mins sooner, lol

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I've made my decision. I will be heading back to nova. 

I'll buy you a ticket to Houston.

[MillvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Hmm, I'm a bit confused or maybe I mis-read something.  But @MillvilleWx said the EC was at the eastern end of the envelope of its own ensembles.  The image you show where you add the deterministic EC (in blue) actually shows the opposite of that (it's in the cluster of the western solutions)??  Again, maybe I misunderstood what he was indicating before.

I should’ve specified that it was prior to the 12z run the EC deterministic was at the eastern envelope of solutions. It’s adjusted correctly now, but still could be further east as several members are! 
 

Sorry for the confusion! 

[Ji]

yea it's great, better than 12z

First time I’ve seen darker green from those terrible maps over me this season

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Monday 1am total

I’m changing my name to Norlun

[bncho]

Euro trend from 18z yesterday to 18z today

[Jake Wx]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It’s pretty tucked here, great looking panel at 0z Monday. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I should’ve specified that it was prior to the 12z run the EC deterministic was at the eastern envelope of solutions. It’s adjusted correctly now, but still could be further east as several members are! 
 

Sorry for the confusion! 

Ahhh, thank you very much sir!  That makes sense.  Again, I do like the cluster of western solutions in there.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

.

Who said this was good???  It’s trending the wrong way today. Looks like a classic Niña screw job now.

[Amped]

Can we stop talking about LA Nina? Thanks.

[mitchnick]

EuroAi hasn't budged in about 4 or 5 runs it seems.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21z RAP has me getting 15-18"

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Who said this was good???  It’s trending the wrong way today. Looks like a classic Niña screw job now.

Looks amazing here

[baltosquid]

Great trend to have this close to start time.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Can we stop talking about LA Nina? Thanks.

It's the reason the storm is happening this way so it's completely relevant, imo

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Great trend to have this close to start time.

And yet...these "improvements" don't seem to be changing much for Balt/DC. Snow maps still end up looking the same while improving west.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

EuroAi hasn't budged in about 4 or 5 runs it seems.

Good test for the AI with such a complicated and dynamic setup. It’s been west of the deterministic at times, but it was jumpy a few days ago. Seems to be locked in now. Still will miss the banding structures, but the orientation of the QPF is probably fairly good in a spatial sense. I’d lean more towards the hi-res tonight moving forward. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Great trend to have this close to start time.

That is what matters actually 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's the reason the storm is happening this way so it's completely relevant, imo

It's actually a myth that Nina's favor the coastal areas. Randomness from not enough analogs. The La Nina main effect is a stronger North Pacific High, which is a slight SE ridge correlation in the cold season. The patterns aren't always uniform El nino or La nina either, there are many other factors that cause what happens. 

[Amped]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

It's the reason the storm is happening this way so it's completely relevant, imo

Yeah but it has no discernible impact on the short term forecast, contrary to what some may imply.

[Jake Wx]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet...these "improvements" don't seem to be changing much for Balt/DC. Snow maps still end up looking the same while improving west.

 

[bncho]

Surface output should be better on the euro, but the fact it's not a CAM is probably the reason why it's only good at best. We're stacking a 980 LP on itself (super dynamic, CAMs will have the best idea), and precip is only this heavy? I don't buy it. 

[Jake Wx]

Just now, bncho said:

Surface output should be better on the euro, but the fact it's not a CAM is probably the reason why it's only good at best. We're stacking a 980 LP on itself, and precip is only this heavy? I don't buy it.

IMO it should be closer to the rates of the HRRR

[snowmagnet]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

 

That's a lot better for my backyard. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

 

So 3" to 4" (and 4" to 5" in DC)? While west of here doubles? That's not improvement. Haven't been in the pinks or purples on the euro all day.

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

 

Looos like climo favored areas NW of DC may make out better. But the overall distribution is expanding. Good trends to have so close to game time

[IUsedToHateCold]

I'm hugging the NAM and the dice on this one. I think the NW trend continues right up until game time and we get crushed east of DC ala Feb 1979. 20"+ for my yard with a rapid falloff wherever the western edge of the CCB sets up somewhere between here and NOVA. Then the mountains get crushed with the IVT and get at least 8" with 12"-16" in places

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

 

There are a lot of old ppl on here that can't keep up w that gif speed.