Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,637
    Total Members
    14,841
    Most Online
    BroadWing3544
    Newest Member
    BroadWing3544
    Joined

2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2


Maestrobjwa
 Share

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Hmm, I'm a bit confused or maybe I mis-read something.  But @MillvilleWx said the EC was at the eastern end of the envelope of its own ensembles.  The image you show where you add the deterministic EC (in blue) actually shows the opposite of that (it's in the cluster of the western solutions)??  Again, maybe I misunderstood what he was indicating before.

I should’ve specified that it was prior to the 12z run the EC deterministic was at the eastern envelope of solutions. It’s adjusted correctly now, but still could be further east as several members are! 
 

Sorry for the confusion! 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I should’ve specified that it was prior to the 12z run the EC deterministic was at the eastern envelope of solutions. It’s adjusted correctly now, but still could be further east as several members are! 
 

Sorry for the confusion! 

Ahhh, thank you very much sir!  That makes sense.  Again, I do like the cluster of western solutions in there.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

EuroAi hasn't budged in about 4 or 5 runs it seems.

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma (24).png

Good test for the AI with such a complicated and dynamic setup. It’s been west of the deterministic at times, but it was jumpy a few days ago. Seems to be locked in now. Still will miss the banding structures, but the orientation of the QPF is probably fairly good in a spatial sense. I’d lean more towards the hi-res tonight moving forward. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's the reason the storm is happening this way so it's completely relevant, imo

It's actually a myth that Nina's favor the coastal areas. Randomness from not enough analogs. The La Nina main effect is a stronger North Pacific High, which is a slight SE ridge correlation in the cold season. The patterns aren't always uniform El nino or La nina either, there are many other factors that cause what happens. 

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
  • Disagree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surface output should be better on the euro, but the fact it's not a CAM is probably the reason why it's only good at best. We're stacking a 980 LP on itself (super dynamic, CAMs will have the best idea), and precip is only this heavy? I don't buy it. 

image.thumb.png.596482fe06dc384eb559ab1dfd1b1f67.png

  • Like 4
  • 100% 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bncho said:

Surface output should be better on the euro, but the fact it's not a CAM is probably the reason why it's only good at best. We're stacking a 980 LP on itself, and precip is only this heavy? I don't buy it.

image.thumb.png.596482fe06dc384eb559ab1dfd1b1f67.png

IMO it should be closer to the rates of the HRRR

  • yes 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm hugging the NAM and the dice on this one. I think the NW trend continues right up until game time and we get crushed east of DC ala Feb 1979. 20"+ for my yard with a rapid falloff wherever the western edge of the CCB sets up somewhere between here and NOVA. Then the mountains get crushed with the IVT and get at least 8" with 12"-16" in places

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned and locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...