TheColtrane Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The NAM gets y'all every time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Solo2 said: That FDK snow hole is present on a few models. Pretty strange since this setup (at least on the NAM) usually does well here. I'm trying to keep muted expectations here in New Market (520' Elevation), but things look good. I feel for you. Most of your snow is completely dependent on where the bands set up tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, mappy said: IMO 3k, it’s higher resolution Certainly for temperatures and thermal profiles at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Certainly for temperatures at least. I honestly could not tell you the last time I actually looked at 12k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Snow totals lowered 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, mappy said: Not complaining What happened to all the heavy snow on the Delmarva? Did it all melt? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, mappy said: I feel for you. Most of your snow is completely dependent on where the bands set up tomorrow night We'll see. There has been some model pessimism in the past and it seems to level out with surrounding areas in the end... unless the banding is abnormally narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, mappy said: I honestly could not tell you the last time I actually looked at 12k Yeah...I generally just give a quick look for an overview on TT or some such site, plus it goes out farther than the 3km nest. But when honing in on things, 3km is typically the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Dropped the high end scenarios too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, mappy said: IMO 3k, it’s higher resolution Thanks. Figured that was going to be the response. Don’t like the snow hole over central Frederick on the 3k vs the more uniform dispersion shown on the 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, mappy said: Not complaining So how does this square with snow maps from the exact same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, TheColtrane said: The NAM gets y'all every time. The model that nailed our last snowstorm? The NAM is right sometimes, about some things. Just like the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Dropped the high end scenarios too Not everyone. Annapolis went from 18 ro 23” high end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said: So when they go low, we go high? Usually. Some of the biggest storms we have had they had to play catch up. Most storms they go bullish right away we don’t get as much. Like the last storm they were showing 12-15” for most the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 28 minutes ago, yoda said: Wtf is this Snowiccane 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: So how does this square with snow maps from the exact same model? That’s just a snow depth map. I never seen one of those be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitecheddar Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: So how does this square with snow maps from the exact same model? I forget who yesterday.. But the advice for the snow depth maps were to use them as another tool. The warning for it was they were often sometimes a little to low in a big storm like this and they didnt always adjust up for really good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: What happened to all the heavy snow on the Delmarva? Did it all melt? Hard to say. I think @high risk said something earlier this week about downsides to snow depth but I don’t recall the details 5 minutes ago, Solo2 said: We'll see. There has been some model pessimism in the past and it seems to level out with surrounding areas in the end... unless the banding is abnormally narrow. Rooting for you! 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Yeah...I generally just give a quick look for an overview on TT or some such site, plus it goes out farther than the 3km nest. But when honing in on things, 3km is typically the way to go. Agreed! 5 minutes ago, EB89 said: Thanks. Figured that was going to be the response. Don’t like the snow hole over central Frederick on the 3k vs the more uniform dispersion shown on the 12k. Yeah 12k just isn’t as detailed. 3k thermals are usually pretty good within a day. They did well 1/31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: What happened to all the heavy snow on the Delmarva? Did it all melt? Blizzard warning for 2” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Snow totals loweredAlgorithmic and laggy tho right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Not everyone. Annapolis went from 18 ro 23” high end. NE Maryland pummeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Dropped the high end scenarios too That actually boosted the high end here in Baltimore. It was 17" earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Saw the number of replies and knew something crazy happened. I wanna get greedy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Icon should be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Snow totals lowered This really is a tough situation especially taking temperatures into account, etc. I'm usually loath to be "critical" but I do find this to be a bit of an odd snowfall distribution. Some of the areas that are currently under a warning actually have less than warning criteria on that expected snowfall map. Also, just checking WPC's 50th percentile amounts, it has been showing significantly more (on the order of ~6-10" near DC, with higher as you go northeast and to the east of the Bay). I would absolutely not want to be on the hot seat making decisions on this, for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: What happened to all the heavy snow on the Delmarva? Did it all melt? The snowfall/depth tools on these models are a joke. Best you can do is use qpf and pick a reasonable ratio and figure it out. 3km NAM has over 20" of snow falling here but a depth of a few inches as the event ends. Thats some hella compaction/melting. Maybe the high winds blew it away lol. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Not everyone. Annapolis went from 18 ro 23” high end. Temps will be a problem until the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Let's refresh:The "Point" map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations.The "Range" map is the 25th percentile (lower number) to 75th percentile (higher number) of possible snowfall amounts based on the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Super Ensemble output during the time period of the graphic. The official NWS snowfall forecast influences this range of values either up or down depending upon how closely they match. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 22 minutes ago, mappy said: Whoever told you to go should be banned The only way the younger people learn is by making mistakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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