2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[TheColtrane]

The NAM gets y'all every time.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Solo2 said:

That FDK snow hole is present on a few models. Pretty strange since this setup (at least on the NAM) usually does well here. I'm trying to keep muted expectations here in New Market (520' Elevation), but things look good.

I feel for you. Most of your snow is completely dependent on where the bands set up tomorrow night 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

IMO 3k, it’s higher resolution 

Certainly for temperatures and thermal profiles at least.

[mappy]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Certainly for temperatures at least.

I honestly could not tell you the last time I actually looked at 12k

[paulythegun]

Snow totals lowered

[Silver Meteor]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

Not complaining  

 

What happened to all the heavy snow on the Delmarva? Did it all melt? 

[Solo2]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I feel for you. Most of your snow is completely dependent on where the bands set up tomorrow night 

We'll see. There has been some model pessimism in the past and it seems to level out with surrounding areas in the end... unless the banding is abnormally narrow. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, mappy said:

I honestly could not tell you the last time I actually looked at 12k

Yeah...I generally just give a quick look for an overview on TT or some such site, plus it goes out farther than the 3km nest.  But when honing in on things, 3km is typically the way to go.

[paulythegun]

Dropped the high end scenarios too

[EB89]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

IMO 3k, it’s higher resolution 

Thanks. Figured that was going to be the response. Don’t like the snow hole over central Frederick on the 3k vs the more uniform dispersion shown on the 12k. 

[Wetbulbs88]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

Not complaining  

 

So how does this square with snow maps from the exact same model? 

[Wetbulbs88]

5 minutes ago, TheColtrane said:

The NAM gets y'all every time.

The model that nailed our last snowstorm? 

The NAM is right sometimes, about some things. Just like the others. 

[Random Chaos]

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Dropped the high end scenarios too

Not everyone. Annapolis went from 18 ro 23” high end.

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

So when they go low, we go high?

Usually. Some of the biggest storms we have had they had to play catch up. Most storms they go bullish right away we don’t get as much. Like the last storm they were showing 12-15” for most the area. 

[Amped]

28 minutes ago, yoda said:

Wtf is this

 

Snowiccane 2.0

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

So how does this square with snow maps from the exact same model? 

That’s just a snow depth map. I never seen one of those be right. 

[Whitecheddar]

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

So how does this square with snow maps from the exact same model? 

I forget who yesterday..

But the advice for the snow depth maps were to use them as another tool. The warning for it was they were often sometimes a little to low in a big storm like this and they didnt always adjust up for really good rates. 

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

What happened to all the heavy snow on the Delmarva? Did it all melt? 

Hard to say. I think @high risk said something earlier this week about downsides to snow depth but I don’t recall the details

5 minutes ago, Solo2 said:

We'll see. There has been some model pessimism in the past and it seems to level out with surrounding areas in the end... unless the banding is abnormally narrow. 

Rooting for you! 

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah...I generally just give a quick look for an overview on TT or some such site, plus it goes out farther than the 3km nest.  But when honing in on things, 3km is typically the way to go.

Agreed!

5 minutes ago, EB89 said:

Thanks. Figured that was going to be the response. Don’t like the snow hole over central Frederick on the 3k vs the more uniform dispersion shown on the 12k. 

Yeah 12k just isn’t as detailed. 3k thermals are usually pretty good within a day. They did well 1/31

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

What happened to all the heavy snow on the Delmarva? Did it all melt? 

Blizzard warning for 2” lol 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Snow totals lowered

Algorithmic and laggy tho right?

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Not everyone. Annapolis went from 18 ro 23” high end.

NE Maryland pummeled!

[RickinBaltimore]

6 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Dropped the high end scenarios too

That actually boosted the high end here in Baltimore. It was 17" earlier.

[Nomz]

Saw the number of replies and knew something crazy happened. I wanna get greedy at this point.

[mitchnick]

Icon should be better

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Snow totals lowered

This really is a tough situation especially taking temperatures into account, etc.  I'm usually loath to be "critical" but I do find this to be a bit of an odd snowfall distribution.  Some of the areas that are currently under a warning actually have less than warning criteria on that expected snowfall map.  Also, just checking WPC's 50th percentile amounts, it has been showing significantly more (on the order of ~6-10" near DC, with higher as you go northeast and to the east of the Bay).  I would absolutely not want to be on the hot seat making decisions on this, for sure!

[Jake Wx]

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

What happened to all the heavy snow on the Delmarva? Did it all melt? 

The snowfall/depth tools on these models are a joke. Best you can do is use qpf and pick a reasonable ratio and figure it out. 3km NAM has over 20" of snow falling here but a depth of a few inches as the event ends. Thats some hella compaction/melting. Maybe the high winds blew it away lol.

[blizzardmeiser]

8 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Not everyone. Annapolis went from 18 ro 23” high end.

Temps will be a problem until the evening 

[NVAwx]

Let's refresh:
The "Point" map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations.


The "Range" map is the 25th percentile (lower number) to 75th percentile (higher number) of possible snowfall amounts based on the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Super Ensemble output during the time period of the graphic. The official NWS snowfall forecast influences this range of values either up or down depending upon how closely they match.

[WEATHER53]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

Whoever told you to go should be banned 

The only way the younger people learn is by making mistakes