2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah we’re not out of the game yet. No, we won’t jack like NJ/LI - but that’s nothing new. I grew up here watching them get 1-2’ while I get a few inches. That has happened a lot more than many on here think, perhaps due to recency bias. To me, it’s more of a reversion to the 80s/90s with adjusted for today’s climate. Maybe we revert to the 00s/10s soon. We’re starting to see BM storm tracks again, so there’s that. 

If I get 5” out of this, I’ll consider it a nice win. Was expecting very little and high bust potential 36-48 hours ago…regardless of what the gfs was saying.

That said, whoever gets into the IVT is going to have fun, and I hope I can enjoy a bit of that. This is going to be a dynamic system. At least my thermals will be “good” relative to many areas. 

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, H2O said:

I’m just gonna take every snow map and cut in half for mby. Daytime won’t give much accum with temps being what they usually are down here. 

Smart. Solid snow TV until 4pm. Then 3-6 after that as the sun drops in the sky. Probably my some 8-10 lollies in decent banding is a reasonable forecast.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I woke up and realized how hopeless 8-12" is for anybody in the region except CAPE. lol

Reality's a bitch. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I woke up and realized how hopeless 8-12" is for anybody in the region except CAPE. lol

Here some advice from someone go has been there, done that for a long time: 

Storms like this with iffy temps never give as much as clown maps show

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

I woke up and realized how hopeless 8-12" is for anybody in the region except CAPE. lol

You’ll learn young grasshopper to not get sucked into the hype ahead of a storm, soon enough lol 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah we’re not out of the game yet. No, we won’t jack like NJ/LI - but that’s nothing new. I grew up here watching them get 1-2’ while I get a few inches. That has happened a lot more than many on here think, perhaps due to recency bias. To me, it’s more of a reversion to the 80s/90s with adjusted for today’s climate. Maybe we revert to the 00s/10s soon. We’re starting to see BM storm tracks again, so there’s that. 

What's a BM storm track?

[DDweatherman]

@mitchnick just in the spirit of your post I weenied you too. That said, like I always say…we want every piece of guidance to go in our favor. The LOW itself doesn’t necessarily have to trend that far west for big improvements at surface. We just need clean phasing and early negative tilting/a little sharper trough. 

[Ji]

Maybe. I’m expecting it to be snowing most of the day but not amount to much and if it does, then it’s a bonus! 

Snow falling from the sky is my favorite weather activity so I’m OK with seeing heavy snow not stick

[Interstate]

I will take pictures of my 12 inches of snow IMBY

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

What's a BM storm track?

Benchmark. 40/70 lat/lon. Textbook for NESIS/KU events. 

[TSSN+]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
812 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

DCZ001-MDZ013-016-504-VAZ053-054-057-501-506-526-527-212115-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles-Central and Southeast
Montgomery-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George-
Northern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
812 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 or more
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...DC and portions of central and southern Maryland, and
  central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

[Ji]

Yeah we’re not out of the game yet. No, we won’t jack like NJ/LI - but that’s nothing new. I grew up here watching them get 1-2’ while I get a few inches. That has happened a lot more than many on here think, perhaps due to recency bias. To me, it’s more of a reversion to the 80s/90s with adjusted for today’s climate. Maybe we revert to the 00s/10s soon. We’re starting to see BM storm tracks again, so there’s that. 

It is not a climate thing. I think it’s just a Nino versus Niña. But maybe there’s more Niña’s now because of climate change

[Eskimo Joe]

Wild that Calvert and St. Mary's counties have a winter storm watch but DC doesn't.

EDIT: not anymore!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Interstate said:

I will take pictures of my 12 inches of snow IMBY

No bullshit, you’ve been in since the beginning. You get a share of the name if this SOB trends and verifies boom scenarios in the sub. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Wild that Calvert and St. Mary's counties have a winter storm watch but DC doesn't.

Check again EJ 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Wild that Calvert and St. Mary's counties have a winter storm watch but DC doesn't.

They do now 

[Ji]

You’ll learn young grasshopper to not get sucked into the hype ahead of a storm, soon enough lol 

He’s probably 38 pretending to be a teenager at high school

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Snow falling from the sky is my favorite weather activity so I’m OK with seeing heavy snow not stick

Im okay with snow all day and a dumping of 6 overnight. Dogs just got their snow free backyard back and loving being able to run around again haha 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
812 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

DCZ001-MDZ013-016-504-VAZ053-054-057-501-506-526-527-212115-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles-Central and Southeast
Montgomery-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George-
Northern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
812 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 or more
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...DC and portions of central and southern Maryland, and
  central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

I’m surprised 

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know it's the Rap, but the 9z really moved west over the 3z (extended Rap also comes out every 6 hrs but at 3z, 9z, etc.) With the Srefs and Eps, now Rap, moving west from 0z/3z, we can hope for another jump west. 

p.s. Wennied myself before anyone else does it! 

Kids….this is what desperation looks like.

[blizzardmeiser]

Mt Holly very bullish, Balt east 70%+ of 6 or more 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Smart. Solid snow TV until 4pm. Then 3-6 after that as the sun drops in the sky. Probably my some 8-10 lollies in decent banding is a reasonable forecast.

Favored areas will do well before and manage a couple inches while it drips for the S of DC crew. 
 

Banding will also be better for people with decent elevation. So if you are 350ft or above it will produce. I’m at not even 200 so only thing I could hope for is getting lucky with rates. 
 

2-3” is my call with plenty of areas around me going 6”

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Mt Holly very bullish, Balt east 70%+ of 6 or more 

That fuckin i95 corridor 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Mt Holly very bullish, Balt east 70%+ of 6 or more 

That’s pretty sharp

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know it's the Rap, but the 9z really moved west over the 3z (extended Rap also comes out every 6 hrs but at 3z, 9z, etc.) With the Srefs and Eps, now Rap, moving west from 0z/3z, we can hope for another jump west. 

p.s. Wennied myself before anyone else does it! 

One can hope. A GFS result with two feet over the bay and way less west would be devastating. Also not sure if that’s ever happened.

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Im okay with snow all day and a dumping of 6 overnight. Dogs just got their snow free backyard back and loving being able to run around again haha 

Did you clean up the yard before it gets covered again?  

[baltosquid]

12z HRRR is out to the normal range (18hrs) so far and looks more amped. Obviously utility decreases exponentially beyond the normal range. And even at 18 it is not so great. But these particular changes can be spotted before that too. Wonder what it will look like in la la land.

[mappy]

Just now, H2O said:

Did you clean up the yard before it gets covered again?  

fck no lol 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Check again EJ 

 

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

They do now 

Literally issued as I typed that.

[H2O]

Just now, mappy said:

fck no lol 

You gonna have great grass in spots come spring with that canine fertilizer