2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I believe

In a storm I felt was going to be a hit a week ago
In a storm nobody thought was possible
In a Nat 20 out of nowhere
In models that are trending in the right direction for once
In a chance for an HECS
00z is when we're going to reel it in. 
@bncho's riveting pbp

Bring it home. 

probably retiring from PBP. if randy says I suck i must really suck

[MillvilleWx]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now perhaps this isn't for this thread oer se, but perhaps still on topic...how do you calculate those ratios? Layman question, lol

Use a blend of model guidance which have their own ratio calculations and apply weights. We do that ourselves as the forecaster. I look at soundings and lots of other variables to create my own in-house SLR output which starts from the NBM and work from there. It’s a cool process and a lot of work, but we use every tool in the toolbox sometimes! 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Would snow depth maps be a better use for this storm? Cut the accumulations on the 10:1 maps in half for this event? Or would that be over doing it?


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I think there’s going to be quite a range of ratios. If you’re in the coastal CCB or the core of the IVT, 10-12:1 probably? Maybe better? Outside of that more like 8:1? But maybe as low as 5:1 in warm spots with poor rates?

[wasnow215]

40 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

 

Anyone smarter than me explain why Kuchie is lower than 10:1? 

Marginal temps? 

Yes-let's be real though-snowdepth is the real measure of snow and we rarely see those maps lol.

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

probably retiring from PBP. if randy says I suck i must really suck

Practice, friend. You will get better. The greats aren't made in a day. 

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Would snow depth maps be a better use for this storm? Cut the accumulations on the 10:1 maps in half for this event? Or would that be over doing it?


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Nobody wants to say it but yes

[Imgoinhungry]

I think there’s going to be quite a range of ratios. If you’re in the coastal CCB or the core of the IVT, 10-12:1 probably? Maybe better? Outside of that more like 8:1? But maybe as low as 5:1 in warm spots with poor rates?

Yea, makes sense. Thanks.


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[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not speaking of the NBM specifically, but rather ratios in general- some of the modeled soundings show very impressive vertical lift(omega) through the DGZ with surface temps at 32 over this way at certain points in the storm- how high could the ratios be in that scenario? 15-1 maybe?

I believe I had your ratios at the storm height around 10-12:1, but there could easily banding that eclipses that. 15:1 max within a CCB banded structure or within the norlun trough is plausible, but I would lean towards 8-10:1 storm average overall. 

[davidjd1114]

Is this possible??


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[Imgoinhungry]

Is this possible??


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Dont see it. Cut the “c” totals in half i think. Lots of wet snow without accumulation throughout the day sunday, i think. Hope i am wrong!


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[Cobalt]

Orange'd before the 0z suite comes in

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Orange'd before the 0z suite comes in

I suspect WSW for most of NOVA later tonight 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Been discussed earlier but was at my sons basketball, didn’t realize the ai euro and ai ensembles moved so far west.  We’ve seen this a million times with events when we’re in the bullseye and then a trend starts and doesn’t stop.   Maybe finally we’re on the right side of it?

[IronTy]

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I suspect WSW for most of NOVA later tonight 

I've never noticed them before, do you know what the two thick black lines in the graphic represent

Era, duh nevermind now I see how they've broken it into three zones.

[Weather Will]

0Z HRRR is amped big time. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I've never noticed them before, do you know what the two thick black lines in the graphic represent?

They separate the 95 corridor area from the Shen/Piedmont region etc 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I've never noticed them before, do you know what the two thick black lines in the graphic represent

Era, duh nevermind now I see how they've broken it into three zones.

It was answered below. I’m at a Wizards game watching them figure out how to lose.

[GreyHat]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not sure its that warm. It was mostly frozen a week or so ago.

As of Thursday this week on my way home frome work, it was open with very little ice floating around by the bay bridge.

[bncho]

HRRR!!!

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

HRRR!!!

Take control of the 0z suite tonight, it’s yours.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

HRRR!!!

I like that look more than any other model I’ve seen. Most of them have Frederick on the western envelope of the goods.

[87storms]

6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

They separate the 95 corridor area from the Shen/Piedmont region etc 

Aka the snowstorm from the meh lol.

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

HRRR!!!

That is a nice look. Best we’ve seen yet from the hrrr. Way outside of range, but again a piece of guidance we want to in our camp like the rest. 

[mitchnick]

Eh, 21z Rap is no slouch either. Plenty more to go after this panel with a nice bowling ball of circled 500mb Heights to the west yet to come through. And if scroll back to an earlier panel you notice that in the last panel attached a new slp is starting to reform tucked in along the coast. That's what the Gfs had in its first bomb of 2-4'!

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z HRRR..look at the pressure leaning NW.

[nj2va]

LWX’s range map shows how uncertain the forecast is at this point.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR..look at the pressure leaning NW.

Same as the Rap map I posted above and mentioned. 

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I like that look more than any other model I’ve seen. Most of them have Frederick on the western envelope of the goods.

A lot of that comes down to the initial advance of precip before the coastal takes over. Few of the other models are giving that much of a thought, and from the looks of it the HRRR is actually wetter with that batch than even the GFS.

[bncho]

NAM looks more phasey and heights are higher... but it's early

[bncho]

+PNA ridge is better too

is this the NAMming of the decade? that will be TBD