2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[bncho]

We aren't entirely reliant on the norlun trough anymore. Amazing.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

The heavy #’s are still moving west, what if it’s not done moving our way? 

At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. 
 

EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

We aren't entirely reliant on the norlun trough anymore. Amazing.

Coastal NJ and NYC up to LI and CT might be backing into a HECS here. 

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Catoctins are going to get hammered

When I went through this AM the trees were covered in ice as the temp was 30 with rain. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

We aren't entirely reliant on the norlun trough anymore. Amazing.

Saddens me to so ENE pushing their way into the scene. Lucky bastids.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. 
 

EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign. 

I agree sir, well said. The trend is towards bigger totals, and the h5 continues to improve. Phasing is getting cleaner. Somewhere is getting a historic number at this point. 

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. 
 

EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign. 

And I think and please tell me that even if it’s not closer but is stronger then the beneficial effect is about the same?

[Amped]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Saddens me to so ENE pushing their way into the scene. Lucky bastids.

Can we pickup DC and move it to SNJ?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

And I think and please tell me that even if it’s not closer but is stronger then the beneficial effect is about the same?

Good thing it’s getting both closer and stronger. Cleaner phasing and more amping helps the norlun/inverted trough axis for sure.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You can see the definition beginning to show up in lower res models of the norlun trough. This one is over south-central PA and would extend down to the south-southeast. Someone on the northwest side is going to get in on a nice surprise. Great look on AIFS now. QPF distribution looking very solid. 

Mt PSU is gonna get 15". Book it lol.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Saddens me to so ENE pushing their way into the scene. Lucky bastids.

Who cares? As long as we can score well in this region, I couldn't give a shit if New England gets hammered better with a lot more.  Why do people care so much if they get bombed but we "only" get, say, 6-10"?

[peribonca]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Can we pickup DC and move it to SNJ?

Well we're working on getting the stench with that Potomac sewer water.

[mitchnick]

Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. 

[Ji]

Euro sucked out here

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

And I think and please tell me that even if it’s not closer but is stronger then the beneficial effect is about the same?

Correct! I do think there’s a limit right now for west of the Bay, but sky is the limit for the Delmarva. I would kill to be on eastern LI or Souteast Mass for this sucker. I really like the look for DE. They should be preparing for an onslaught Sunday evening into the overnight. Tons of mashed potatoes. 

[Ji]

Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. 

Why would it be warm in the historical cold winter?

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Can we pickup DC and move it to SNJ?

Why on earth would you want to ruin DC by sticking in NJ. Oh God 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Why would it be warm in the historical cold winter?

Because it isn't frozen Beaver.

[T. August]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. 

Disagree, there was still ice as recently as 2 days ago. That’s a result of the IVT missing to the west and coastal to the east. Just gotta hope the euro is too dry overall.

[Random Chaos]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. 

Bay is 34F right now. Not exactly warm.

This is forecast for Sunday 7am:

 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro sucked out here

You’ve got guitar work to do.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. 

Bay temp near me is like 34°, so I doubt that right now. We just melted the ice past few days haha 

[weathercoins]

I’ve got a flight landing at DCA at 12 PM on Sunday and Southwest already telling me I can switch it because of the incoming weather.  Can’t imagine it will be affected during the early part of the day… May even switch to 2 PM so I can get a little more sleep …

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

Bay is 34F right now. Not exactly warm.

This is forecast for Sunday 7am:

 

Euro thinks it is.

[bncho]

Track is trending NW but big totals are shifting SW... 

 

[wasnow215]

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Where is Chuck?

I got a fever, and the only prescription.. is more +PNA baby!

Good question 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. 

Not sure its that warm. It was mostly frozen a week or so ago.

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Why on earth would you want to ruin DC by sticking in NJ. Oh God 

Since you started this way better food and great beaches lol... just messing moving on now you can delete it if you want mods but you would have to start with his lol

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

Disagree, there was still ice as recently as 2 days ago. That’s a result of the IVT missing to the west and coastal to the east. Just gotta hope the euro is too dry overall.

It follows the curvature of the Bay up near NE MD. Somebody should ring those Englishmen running the Euro on the telly that they're off on the Bay temps.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

Track is trending NW but big totals are shifting SW... 

 

I think I'd like a GFS solution just to be safe...that divide on this particular run puts Central MD in between the two maxes.