bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We aren't entirely reliant on the norlun trough anymore. Amazing. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, DDweatherman said: The heavy #’s are still moving west, what if it’s not done moving our way? At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, bncho said: We aren't entirely reliant on the norlun trough anymore. Amazing. Coastal NJ and NYC up to LI and CT might be backing into a HECS here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 19 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Catoctins are going to get hammered When I went through this AM the trees were covered in ice as the temp was 30 with rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, bncho said: We aren't entirely reliant on the norlun trough anymore. Amazing. Saddens me to so ENE pushing their way into the scene. Lucky bastids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign. I agree sir, well said. The trend is towards bigger totals, and the h5 continues to improve. Phasing is getting cleaner. Somewhere is getting a historic number at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: At some point there will be a sharp western edge on this one, but question is how far back west. There will be a crazy west to east gradient before you reach the coastal Delmarva, but could be a ton of precip between the edge and there. EC continues to be one of the eastern most solutions and it’s still upping the ante. Good sign. And I think and please tell me that even if it’s not closer but is stronger then the beneficial effect is about the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Saddens me to so ENE pushing their way into the scene. Lucky bastids. Can we pickup DC and move it to SNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, WEATHER53 said: And I think and please tell me that even if it’s not closer but is stronger then the beneficial effect is about the same? Good thing it’s getting both closer and stronger. Cleaner phasing and more amping helps the norlun/inverted trough axis for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: You can see the definition beginning to show up in lower res models of the norlun trough. This one is over south-central PA and would extend down to the south-southeast. Someone on the northwest side is going to get in on a nice surprise. Great look on AIFS now. QPF distribution looking very solid. Mt PSU is gonna get 15". Book it lol. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Saddens me to so ENE pushing their way into the scene. Lucky bastids. Who cares? As long as we can score well in this region, I couldn't give a shit if New England gets hammered better with a lot more. Why do people care so much if they get bombed but we "only" get, say, 6-10"? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Can we pickup DC and move it to SNJ? Well we're working on getting the stench with that Potomac sewer water. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Euro sucked out here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: And I think and please tell me that even if it’s not closer but is stronger then the beneficial effect is about the same? Correct! I do think there’s a limit right now for west of the Bay, but sky is the limit for the Delmarva. I would kill to be on eastern LI or Souteast Mass for this sucker. I really like the look for DE. They should be preparing for an onslaught Sunday evening into the overnight. Tons of mashed potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. Why would it be warm in the historical cold winter? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Can we pickup DC and move it to SNJ? Why on earth would you want to ruin DC by sticking in NJ. Oh God 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Ji said: Why would it be warm in the historical cold winter? Because it isn't frozen Beaver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. Disagree, there was still ice as recently as 2 days ago. That’s a result of the IVT missing to the west and coastal to the east. Just gotta hope the euro is too dry overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. Bay is 34F right now. Not exactly warm. This is forecast for Sunday 7am: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro sucked out here You’ve got guitar work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. Bay temp near me is like 34°, so I doubt that right now. We just melted the ice past few days haha 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I’ve got a flight landing at DCA at 12 PM on Sunday and Southwest already telling me I can switch it because of the incoming weather. Can’t imagine it will be affected during the early part of the day… May even switch to 2 PM so I can get a little more sleep … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: Bay is 34F right now. Not exactly warm. This is forecast for Sunday 7am: Euro thinks it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Track is trending NW but big totals are shifting SW... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: Where is Chuck? I got a fever, and the only prescription.. is more +PNA baby! Good question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. Not sure its that warm. It was mostly frozen a week or so ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Why on earth would you want to ruin DC by sticking in NJ. Oh God Since you started this way better food and great beaches lol... just messing moving on now you can delete it if you want mods but you would have to start with his lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, T. August said: Disagree, there was still ice as recently as 2 days ago. That’s a result of the IVT missing to the west and coastal to the east. Just gotta hope the euro is too dry overall. It follows the curvature of the Bay up near NE MD. Somebody should ring those Englishmen running the Euro on the telly that they're off on the Bay temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 Just now, bncho said: Track is trending NW but big totals are shifting SW... I think I'd like a GFS solution just to be safe...that divide on this particular run puts Central MD in between the two maxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts