February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[The Iceman]

Get ready for chaos because I think the euro is actually going to do it lmao

 

edit: not quite, looked great at hour 72 and 78...but we mostly get the IVT

 

Biggest difference i see is that the GFS bombs the low out to 977, the euro doesn't bomb it out nearly as dramatically hence the block shunts it further east. I thought it looked closer to the GFS though than 00z did. 

[ChescoWx]

[ChescoWx]

So across the Canadian / GFS and Euro let's go with a
plowable snow event between 7" to 24" for Chester County....

[Newman]

Honestly the Euro isn't that far off, it's 6-12 hours too late on phasing with that southern energy that the GFS does. Everything else looks great, we just need that southern vort ejecting out of the Rockies to continue to tick slower. It's really all phase/no phase related.

[JTA66]

35 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I don't know why, but that area of reduced accumulation going up the NE Extension in central Montco ALWAYS shows up on clown maps. Schuykill River surface temp anomalies?? 

[Duca892]

 I mean... i guess all in all... it wasn't a terrible mid-morning/afternoon if you want to keep hope alive for at least a plowable event N/W of Philly? 

[Birds~69]

15 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

 I mean... i guess all in all... it wasn't a terrible mid-morning/afternoon if you want to keep hope alive for at least a plowable event N/W of Philly? 

I'll take a 3-6"er in a minute. I'm just glad I'm late to the party and haven't spent much time tracking till now...

41F/Overcast

[Duca892]

I keep waiting for the GFS rug pull to go towards all other guidance. Any bettors for 18z?

[The Iceman]

Just now, Duca892 said:

I keep waiting for the GFS rug pull to go towards all other guidance. Any bettors for 18z?

I’m saying 18z will be happy hour, it’ll look even better than 12z, 00z with the fresh data is where the rug gets yanked though 

[MickeyTim6533]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I keep waiting for the GFS rug pull to go towards all other guidance. Any bettors for 18z?

18z the party is over. book it

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

 I mean... i guess all in all... it wasn't a terrible mid-morning/afternoon if you want to keep hope alive for at least a plowable event N/W of Philly? 

S&E of Philly

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I keep waiting for the GFS rug pull to go towards all other guidance. Any bettors for 18z?

Funny thing is, gfs keeps doubling down even slight improvements each run....but its not like other guidance is trending bigly the other way. There has been very slow/subtle shifts across other guidance even giving a slight nod to the GFS. I dont think the GFS is 100% accurate by any means, but a 6hr change in timing of the shortwave in question on other guidance and boom the GFS suddenly has legs. We'll see. Being a betting man Im putting the mortgage on the gfs being the outlier though. 

[RedSky]

Have not been following just hearing here and there like discord that it's over the euro didn't cave

12z Euro is 3-6" what is going on lol

 

[Duca892]

9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

S&E of Philly

 

True i guess it is more so what you consider plowable lol. Today has kind of settled in for places like the Lehigh Valley for a 1-2in event with a few outliers 

[Duca892]

Per MA Forum no NAM'ing on the 18z lol 

[LVblizzard]

Big positive trend on the 18z NAM and RRFS. Just another subtle step in the right direction at 0z and this suddenly starts to look very interesting.

[Birds~69]

5 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Per MA Forum no NAM'ing on the 18z lol 

Ji doesn't like it I bet? And the back edge is approaching quickly even though it's thousands of miles West...

41F/The melt is on...can't step on "grass" without a big smush sound.

 

[wkd]

7 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Per MA Forum no NAM'ing on the 18z lol 

Improved over the 12Z run though.

[ChescoWx]

12z NAM at the end of it's run looks like some measurable snow incoming

 

[coastal front]

Icon an rgem both ticked better. Ticks can be effective with this lead time still. We move 

[Duca892]

Welp... here we go... all eyes on GFS

[ChescoWx]

GFS holds serve

Below only through 4am

 

[LVblizzard]

I already don't trust the GFS. But if it fails with this storm again the government should just permanently retire it.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I already don't trust the GFS. But if it fails with this storm again the government should just permanently retire it.

AI is also west. Once in a while it beats the euro.

[Duca892]

GFS wasn't the NUKE for us... but god damn it again dropped 8-16in from the Lehigh Valley to Philly lmfao

[ChescoWx]

[Duca892]

I mean the utter hilarity of what the GFS is showing vs. everyone else is just wild. Per GFS snow literally moves in within 66-72hrs... we are essentially at 70hrs until go time and GFS blasts with 8-16in for all of SEPA while others have us with mostly 1-3in with pops of 4in .

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I mean the utter hilarity of what the GFS is showing vs. everyone else is just wild. Per GFS snow literally moves in within 66-72hrs... we are essentially at 70hrs until go time and GFS blasts with 8-16in for all of SEPA while others have us with mostly 1-3in with pops of 4in .

I thought the gfs looked like a slight step.back tbh at 500mb

[Mikeymac5306]

Guess its going to be a question of what model caves first? 

Serious question. Has anyone seen a situation where the storm was so close (inside 100 hrs) and the major models were still far off each other? 

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I thought the gfs looked like a slight step.back tbh at 500mb

It was but the differences at 500mb between the Euro and GFS are so small....