Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS

[MattMal88]

12 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

You make a good point. The more I look at this the more I realize the bust potential here is enormous, both inland and in the jackpot area closer to the coast. I really do not think the models take the warm temperatures into account. Even here in the LV we may not hit 32 as a low. The coast has a high likelihood of not dropping below the mid 30s. Sure, it will snow and accumulate, but what will the ratios be?

With the rates that almost every model shows, temps will cool to 32 or lower. Dynamic cooling will happen from the sub freezing air thousands of feet above us, when you get heavy precip rates, it drags that colder air from above down to the surface. And the heaviest snow occurs at night so the sun has no effect. Temps aren't an issue at the the height of this at all. 

[Heisy]

[LVblizzard]

Lock in the GFS please. Not because it’s a weenie solution for my area but because it verifies my forecast perfectly 

[Violentweatherfan]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Damn 

[Violentweatherfan]

Holy shit

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Looks a bit better again for the NW suburbs? Anyway just getting ready for a very fun and hopefully memorable storm.

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Insanity… when was the last 2” qpf storm in Philly? Has to be since the summer. Even 1” qpf  has been hard to come by of late. That fact makes me nervous.

[Baum]

21 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

You make a good point. The more I look at this the more I realize the bust potential here is enormous, both inland and in the jackpot area closer to the coast. I really do not think the models take the warm temperatures into account. Even here in the LV we may not hit 32 as a low. The coast has a high likelihood of not dropping below the mid 30s. Sure, it will snow and accumulate, but what will the ratios be?

[KamuSnow]

25 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

You make a good point. The more I look at this the more I realize the bust potential here is enormous, both inland and in the jackpot area closer to the coast. I really do not think the models take the warm temperatures into account. Even here in the LV we may not hit 32 as a low. The coast has a high likelihood of not dropping below the mid 30s. Sure, it will snow and accumulate, but what will the ratios be?

I'm looking at any daytime accumulation as a bonus - the heavier snow looks to be moving in late afternoon, and about every model has the 2M temps at or below freezing by 6 or 7 pm for most of us. This is a late pm and overnight storm as far as I can tell. Enjoy!

[The Iceman]

Yeah all forecasts and models show tomorrow’s snow as not accumulating or mixing with rain for most of the daylight hours. Doesn’t really start until late afternoon tomorrow.

[nesussxwx1]

RGEM doesn't like the western edge at all. Either we get 6-10" or 20-30".

No inbetween with this storm.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Insanity… when was the last 2” qpf storm in Philly? Has to be since the summer. Even 1” qpf  has been hard to come by of late. That fact makes me nervous.

Last 2" - 5/13 to 5/16/2025 (3.11 inches over 4 days)

2025-05-13	71	62	66.5	3.1	0	2	0.28	0.0	0
2025-05-14	66	59	62.5	-1.2	2	0	1.30	0.0	0
2025-05-15	77	63	70.0	6.0	0	5	0.03	0.0	0
2025-05-16	77	60	68.5	4.2	0	4	1.50	0.0	0

Last 1 " - 1/25/2026 (our last snowstorm)

2026-01-25

24

15

19.5

-13.7

45

0

1.39

9.3

2

Before that was 12/19/2025 (our warmest day this winter)

2025-12-19

61

31

46.0

8.3

19

0

1.48

0.0

0

[Newman]

For NW burbs: the GFS has been ticking east with where the H7 low closes off and how fast it moves/slows down. The small ticks east with that is why areas further NW have been losing some QPF/snow. Again, we just don't know where that will set up right now and 8-16" throughout Berks and the Lehigh Valley is a good call based on current data.

What will happen tomorrow is the precip shield will begin to blossom as the baroclinic leaf expands/PVA rotates into the coast with the trough tilting negative. I would not be surprised to see snow as far back as Pittsburgh. Then, as the mid-level lows close off, the larger precip shield will begin to collapse back towards central/eastern PA as the secondary circulation fronto bands rapidly develop. Also, there appears to be an IVT develop across Central PA. You will likely see a dual band structure with the coastal low: one closer to the coast with 850mb fronto and one further NW with 700mb fronto. There will inherently be some subsidence just outside of those bands. These bands will be rotating off the ocean from SE to NW. Who ever can catch the pivot point of either of those bands will score the jackpot. Even outside of those bands it will be snowing hard.

Now one of the biggest differences between our models remains just how stalled out our surface low gets, and therefore how long those intense frontogenesis bands have time to rotate inland. The NAM remains the most amped outlier and tucks/stalls the system for hours, so these bands can extend much further inland. The RGEM is less amped and quicker, so the bands are quick to depart eastward. In summary, this has nothing to do with the storm track anymore. The differences really come down to how amplified and stacked these mid-level lows get. 

[LVLion77]

I'm looking at any daytime accumulation as a bonus - the heavier snow looks to be moving in late afternoon, and about every model has the 2M temps at or below freezing by 6 or 7 pm for most of us. This is a late pm and overnight storm as far as I can tell. Enjoy!

Hope you’re right! Definitely one of the warmer big storm setups.

[Bluescat1]

4 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Hope you’re right! Definitely one of the warmer big storm setups.

Read about the Blizzard of 1888.

 

[LVblizzard]

There is a bit of an east shift in all the global guidance so far tonight. Not sure it’s really the time to be looking at global models but I feel like it can’t be completely ignored.

[Albedoman]

Comment all you want  at each of the BS model issues , debbbie downers and upbeat amounts posting. Have fun. This old timer only looks at one one model right now  ---the NAM and I am also someone convinced of the HRRR lately at this range.   - all the rest are garbage for this type of storm event. I have seen and experienced all of the biggies from 1983, 2010, 2021 etc. At this range it is usually  the NAM.  While it appears a little on the high side right now at these OZ runs tonight,  its going to be close depending who gets the deformation bands. These bands tend to fire up along the S Mtn range too so watch out - there will be screw zones.   This map seems very plausible to me after doing this for 35+years

Where is the thundersnow guys?  This will be a defintley in the cards too.  Sleet may cut the totals along the coast  in the heavier bands

 

 

 

[CoolHandMike]

Eh, what is to come shall be what it is. My snowblower batteries are charged, the shovel is at the ready, and I'll be spending tomorrow baking bread, puttering around in my wood shop and anticipating some pretty significant evening snow TV at least. This has been a great winter so far, so anything we get tomorrow/Monday is just icing on the cake for this season imho.

I'm looking forward to seeing pics of front yards and decks and yardsticks buried feet-deep. With any luck I'll be able to add to those.

[PhilsFanDrew]

4 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Comment all you want  at each of the BS model issues , debbbie downers and upbeat amounts posting. Have fun. This old timer only looks at one one model right now  ---the NAM and I am also someone convinced of the HRRR lately at this range.   - all the rest are garbage for this type of storm event. I have seen and experienced all of the biggies from 1983, 2010, 2021 etc. At this range it is usually  the NAM.  While it appears a little on the high side right now at these OZ runs tonight,  its going to be close depending who gets the deformation bands. These bands tend to fire up along the S Mtn range too so watch out - there will be screw zones.   This map seems very plausible to me after doing this for 35+years

Where is the thundersnow guys?  This will be a defintley in the cards too.  Sleet may cut the totals along the coast  in the heavier bands

 

 

 

Agreed.  I remember even in 2016 with Winter Storm Jonas.  Euro was the first to latch on and stuck with the longer range models.  GFS and others caved and then about 12-24 hours before all the longer range models had it backing off.  NAM held it steady as a huge snow dump, pretty much had the deformation bands verbatim to where they actually setup which caused 3+ inch per hour rates and 24+ inches.  While I don't expect the LV to get into 24-30+ inches, I think it's wild to start totals any less than double digits here.  I like 15-20 inches for the LV with locally higher amounts.  

[nesussxwx1]

28 minutes ago, Newman said:

For NW burbs: the GFS has been ticking east with where the H7 low closes off and it's general track. The small ticks east with that is why areas further NW have been losing some QPF/snow. Again, we just don't know where that will set up right now and 8-16" throughout Berks and the Lehigh Valley is a good call based on current data.

What will happen tomorrow is the precip shield will begin to blossom as the baroclinic leaf expands/PVA rotates into the coast with the trough tilting negative. I would not be surprised to see snow as far back as Pittsburgh. Then, as the mid-level lows close off, the larger precip shield will begin to collapse back towards central/eastern PA as the secondary circulation fronto bands rapidly develop. Also, there appears to be an IVT develop across Central PA. You will likely see a dual band structure with the coastal low: one closer to the coast with 850mb fronto and one further NW with 700mb fronto. There will inherently be some subsidence outside of those bands. These bands will be rotating off the ocean from SE to NW. Who ever can catch the pivot point of either of those bands will score the jackpot.

Now one of the biggest differences between our models remains just how stalled out our surface low gets, and therefore how long those intense frontogenesis bands have time to rotate inland. The NAM remains the most amped outlier and tucks/stalls the system for hours, so these bands can extend much further inland. The RGEM is less amped and quicker, so the bands are quick to depart eastward. In summary, this has nothing to do with the storm track anymore. The differences really come down to how amplified and stacked these mid-level lows get. 

Great write-up. This also demonstrates why it's so hard for models to pinpoint storms with these setups.

[jimmosk]

Mt Holly's latest maps, released at 12:15am. The range from 10% to 90% is unreal.

 

[snowwors2]

3 minutes ago, jimmosk said:

Mt Holly's latest maps, released at 12:15am. The range from 10% to 90% is unreal.

 

Fully covered‼️

[LVblizzard]

Euro came in with a 10-18” storm for the area. Love to see it finally come fully on board!