Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

He’s not wrong though lol. At this point I might be able to run errands on Sunday while oc gets a blizzard.

Do you shout fire in a crowded movie theater?. 

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Are we convinced yet?

not even close

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Cmc looks better so far

We pretty much know what the cmc will look like from the Rgem 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So by 00z Sunday then?

Well, I checked in for the flight.  I got until 12z GFS then I'm on a plane.  I need other models to get on board before then or else I'm out.  But it's not like I've checked flight prices coming back Saturday night.  No sir. 

[Weather Will]

No slow bleed today in the western burbs WB GFS 0Z compared to 6Z EARLY AM.

[Nomz]

If we score on this, it will forever be referenced when an event is obviously busted 3 days out...

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC wants to give a nod to the gfs

[87storms]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Do you shout fire in a crowded movie theater?. 

Only if someone sits next to me when it’s empty 

[balltermen]

Can someone give me like 2 sentences on what models haven't come around yet. i assume 0z Euro will be telling. 

I purposely avoided tracking this one fearing a Lucy, but maybe I brought good luck?

[Nomz]

Just now, balltermen said:

Can someone give me like 2 sentences on what models haven't come around yet. i assume 0z Euro will be telling. 

I purposely avoided tracking this one fearing a Lucy, but maybe I brought good luck?

well goddamn dont come back now

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

No slow bleed today in the western burbs WB GFS 0Z compared to 6Z EARLY AM.

Looks much better out this way

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, I checked in for the flight.  I got until 12z GFS then I'm on a plane.  I need other models to get on board before then or else I'm out.  But it's not like I've checked flight prices coming back Saturday night.  No sir. 

Take one for the team.  If you leave town it will be the blizzard of the century!

[Terpeast]

0z gefs NS vort separates a bit by backing off, while southern vort amps a bit. Let’s see

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

0z gefs NS vort separates a bit by backing off, while southern vort amps a bit. Let’s see

So basically what the GFS did

[LeesburgWx]

My point a click says 39 degrees and rain/snow mix for Sunday. What am I missing?

[weathercoins]

2 minutes ago, balltermen said:

Can someone give me like 2 sentences on what models haven't come around yet. i assume 0z Euro will be telling. 

I purposely avoided tracking this one fearing a Lucy, but maybe I brought good luck?

I think most models are in the 2-6ish inch range at this point (although increasing) and we would have a decent idea of what’s coming, if not for the GFS… making a legendary Hail Mary play to stay relevant 

[Solution Man]

CMC goes from a 991 at 12z to a 970 at 0z and wester at 78, just saying 

[Terpeast]

Gefs to 60, ss vort sharper

[Wetbulbs88]

I hate to be that guy but while we might have movement toward the GooFuS, we have nothing that comes close to it outside the Euro AI which is 300 miles east. 
 

Don’t get me wrong I’m having a blast tracking this one. But given the changes in the upper levels on the GFS I’m not convinced. 
 

I might be alone in this but honestly regardless of how much we get, this has been a one of one tracking experience. I can’t remember a situation with this much disparity. It’s utterly fascinating. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

My point a click says 39 degrees and rain/snow mix for Sunday. What am I missing?

7 degrees

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

@stormtracker Hope you enjoy this! You truly have earned it. Safe travels! Be sure to report back on how much fun you’re having. 

This makes me sad

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I hate to be that guy but while we might have movement toward the GooFuS, we have nothing that comes close to it outside the Euro AI which is 300 miles east. 
 

Don’t get me wrong I’m having a blast tracking this one. But given the changes in the upper levels on the GFS I’m not convinced. 
 

I might be alone in this but honestly regardless of how much we get, this has been a one of one tracking experience. I can’t remember a situation with this much disparity. It’s utterly fascinating. 

models really shouldnt be changing that drastically 48 hours out--should they?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

My point a click says 39 degrees and rain/snow mix for Sunday. What am I missing?

A new mouse?

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

This makes me sad

you cant fly back to DC based on the GFS dude lol

[Terpeast]

Gefs 66 neg tilt, sfc looks the same, ass hair west

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not sure how others are seeing a tick east. Noise level changes in SLP position and precip shield (the extent, not amounts) has actually expanded west

i’m more worried about bigger changes at h5 before storm formation

This is paste falling at night with wind. Enjoy no power. Oh man.

[stormtracker]

i'm off to bed.  Yall are in good hands with bnacho. 

Pray the models reach a consensus.  No way I'll be on here in Houston if after I leave the models crush us

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This makes me sad

I just flew back from 81 degrees this evening in Houston, I get it.

[paulythegun]

The reaching is mind blowing in here and it’s mind blowing…..the bust potential is far more significant than the opposite. But don’t worry, your local Vdot/mdot and whatever the hell DCcalls them selves are preparing for epic snow and end of the world stuff…ask me how I know….waste tax payer dollars at its finest!!!!!

This is very insightful. So much to consider.

But in terms of GFS...it was great to see that we could still score on a coastal with a slightly different 500mb map. The trailing vort was a bit off starting around hour 48 but things still worked out.

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

i'm off to bed.  Yall are in good hands with bnacho. 

Pray the models reach a consensus.  No way I'll be on here in Houston if after I leave the models crush us

I'll make you proud, sir.