ravensrule Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, 87storms said: He’s not wrong though lol. At this point I might be able to run errands on Sunday while oc gets a blizzard. Do you shout fire in a crowded movie theater?. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Are we convinced yet? not even close 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Cmc looks better so far We pretty much know what the cmc will look like from the Rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: So by 00z Sunday then? Well, I checked in for the flight. I got until 12z GFS then I'm on a plane. I need other models to get on board before then or else I'm out. But it's not like I've checked flight prices coming back Saturday night. No sir. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 No slow bleed today in the western burbs WB GFS 0Z compared to 6Z EARLY AM. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 If we score on this, it will forever be referenced when an event is obviously busted 3 days out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 CMC wants to give a nod to the gfs 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, ravensrule said: Do you shout fire in a crowded movie theater?. Only if someone sits next to me when it’s empty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zwyts Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Can someone give me like 2 sentences on what models haven't come around yet. i assume 0z Euro will be telling. I purposely avoided tracking this one fearing a Lucy, but maybe I brought good luck? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, balltermen said: Can someone give me like 2 sentences on what models haven't come around yet. i assume 0z Euro will be telling. I purposely avoided tracking this one fearing a Lucy, but maybe I brought good luck? well goddamn dont come back now 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: No slow bleed today in the western burbs WB GFS 0Z compared to 6Z EARLY AM. Looks much better out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, I checked in for the flight. I got until 12z GFS then I'm on a plane. I need other models to get on board before then or else I'm out. But it's not like I've checked flight prices coming back Saturday night. No sir. Take one for the team. If you leave town it will be the blizzard of the century! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 0z gefs NS vort separates a bit by backing off, while southern vort amps a bit. Let’s see 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Terpeast said: 0z gefs NS vort separates a bit by backing off, while southern vort amps a bit. Let’s see So basically what the GFS did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 My point a click says 39 degrees and rain/snow mix for Sunday. What am I missing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, balltermen said: Can someone give me like 2 sentences on what models haven't come around yet. i assume 0z Euro will be telling. I purposely avoided tracking this one fearing a Lucy, but maybe I brought good luck? I think most models are in the 2-6ish inch range at this point (although increasing) and we would have a decent idea of what’s coming, if not for the GFS… making a legendary Hail Mary play to stay relevant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 CMC goes from a 991 at 12z to a 970 at 0z and wester at 78, just saying 7 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Gefs to 60, ss vort sharper 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I hate to be that guy but while we might have movement toward the GooFuS, we have nothing that comes close to it outside the Euro AI which is 300 miles east. Don’t get me wrong I’m having a blast tracking this one. But given the changes in the upper levels on the GFS I’m not convinced. I might be alone in this but honestly regardless of how much we get, this has been a one of one tracking experience. I can’t remember a situation with this much disparity. It’s utterly fascinating. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: My point a click says 39 degrees and rain/snow mix for Sunday. What am I missing? 7 degrees 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: @stormtracker Hope you enjoy this! You truly have earned it. Safe travels! Be sure to report back on how much fun you’re having. This makes me sad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I hate to be that guy but while we might have movement toward the GooFuS, we have nothing that comes close to it outside the Euro AI which is 300 miles east. Don’t get me wrong I’m having a blast tracking this one. But given the changes in the upper levels on the GFS I’m not convinced. I might be alone in this but honestly regardless of how much we get, this has been a one of one tracking experience. I can’t remember a situation with this much disparity. It’s utterly fascinating. models really shouldnt be changing that drastically 48 hours out--should they? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: My point a click says 39 degrees and rain/snow mix for Sunday. What am I missing? A new mouse? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, stormtracker said: This makes me sad you cant fly back to DC based on the GFS dude lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Gefs 66 neg tilt, sfc looks the same, ass hair west 14 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not sure how others are seeing a tick east. Noise level changes in SLP position and precip shield (the extent, not amounts) has actually expanded west i’m more worried about bigger changes at h5 before storm formation This is paste falling at night with wind. Enjoy no power. Oh man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 i'm off to bed. Yall are in good hands with bnacho. Pray the models reach a consensus. No way I'll be on here in Houston if after I leave the models crush us 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This makes me sad I just flew back from 81 degrees this evening in Houston, I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The reaching is mind blowing in here and it’s mind blowing…..the bust potential is far more significant than the opposite. But don’t worry, your local Vdot/mdot and whatever the hell DCcalls them selves are preparing for epic snow and end of the world stuff…ask me how I know….waste tax payer dollars at its finest!!!!!This is very insightful. So much to consider.But in terms of GFS...it was great to see that we could still score on a coastal with a slightly different 500mb map. The trailing vort was a bit off starting around hour 48 but things still worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, stormtracker said: i'm off to bed. Yall are in good hands with bnacho. Pray the models reach a consensus. No way I'll be on here in Houston if after I leave the models crush us I'll make you proud, sir. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts