“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Damage In Tolland]

This seems like one of storms that models cannot handle correctly . They change every run . Best to put em away 

[butterfish55]

Hrrr looks horrible lol. Hope it’s wrong. 

Storm cancel. Open all the schools tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, butterfish55 said:

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr looks horrible lol. Hope it’s wrong. 

Storm cancel. Open all the schools tomorrow.

That wound be great. I need the kids out.

[DomNH]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No use torturing yourself with it now...just get some rest and watch unfold...plenty of times the bullseye has ended up where there was only like an inch of QPF. Does it mean that will happen now? No, but nothing I said is untrue either.

Totally agree. I’m not too invested in this one. 

[512high]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That wound be great. I need the kids out.

With all the F'ckn models how can this be at "game time", is the going more SE>? My wife got the ok to work from home, crap it better snow so Im out.

[Chrisrotary12]

16 minutes ago, DomNH said:

HRRR does throw a decent deform band back this way tomorrow AM for a bit, but otherwise not super impressive N an W of 495. 

GYX just increased our forecast total?!?! (From 13” to 15”)

[TripplePhaser]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

With all the F'ckn models how can this be at "game time", is the going more SE>? My wife got the ok to work from home, crap it better snow so Im out.

NO observations do not support that in any fashion.

[kdxken]

I think this is known as the angst stage.

[Masswx]

Very concerned myself though

[Masswx]

Hoping for a 3k rather than hrrr

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, 512high said:

With all the F'ckn models how can this be at "game time", is the going more SE>? My wife got the ok to work from home, crap it better snow so Im out.

Hungover folks heading to work in flurries.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Is LI about to get slotted?

[ROOSTA]

Uncharted for the models algorithms.

That is all.

Half-full OR Half-empty? Could be an attempt depicting a capture and stall. The haves are going to continue to have and banding features becoming clearer.

[TripplePhaser]

Looks like hrrr 23z is correcting deeper back to real time observations.

https://x.com/BostonWxConsult/status/2025731386162737301

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes says pockets of 34-35” inches in SE MA. Just not widespread 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

I did discuss the social aspect of thing in my first or two posts on Blizzard of 78 comparisons.  And you bring up the social aspects of things made me think more.

These days it is TMI to the extreme, and so often, people do know not *what* to think concerning the forecast, esp. when it comes to stormy wx.  Oh, *we* know on this forum what is what, but we are a small minority.  The avg person has a tough time w/ wx these days, and I don't blame them!  They have no idea who to trust, or even where to starts to try to get the best wx info.

And w/ the hype out of control, ppl get frustrated and start to tune it out.  Once again, i don't blame them at all.  They are so sick of every wx event treated as if the end of world is nigh, who wouldn't get fed up???
 
This is why I think now, the social sciences concerning wx are now the most important.  Our forecasts have come such a long way and are so good now, that's not the problem anymore.  The problem lies w/ presentation and communicating that info, and having "too many cooks in the kitchen" -- armchair wx ppl on social media thinking they are the "da bomb", among other things, all vying for attention and trying to monetize their content!

Not sure how to address these social issues, and it is a very complex problem.  But just understanding why things they way they are is a good start!

Yes... 2 years ago we had folks dying in their cars or trying to walk to safety during the well predicted Christmas week western NY snow bliz...  The historic western NC flooding from Helene was incredibly well predicted, but folks decided to stay!  Even the tragic TX bible camp flooding was well predicted and warned, but adults did not react appropriately!  Forecasts and warnings are better then ever, but that doesn't mean the general public will always plan and act appropriately.  

[Diggiebot]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes says pockets of 34-35” inches in SE MA. Just not widespread 

Where ever that 4+ band sets up and stalls the longest will be the spots that get 32+ 

[Damage In Tolland]

That last HR cubed run actually upped the ante on winds 

[Torch Tiger]

0z hrrr absolutely slays...slays our hopes and dreams 

[Torch Tiger]

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes says pockets of 34-35” inches in SE MA. Just not widespread 

Where did you dig him up?

[powderfreak]

50 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Dad panicking over hrrr

What a spot to be in panicking over this, lol.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

What a spot to be in panicking over this, lol.

Ha, I told him not to worry. 

[ROOSTA]

Reminded of that feel and look while out into the elements. Watching the live shots on the TWC. Night turns into a grayish-white almost like a cloudy raw day, and the background muffled silence with only the wind in the back round.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Where did you dig him up?

Dude . You need to get out more and put the chainsaws away. He’s got one of the top foretasting outlets available on Onedegreeoutside 

[Greg]

NAM 12K looks good 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha, I told him not to worry. 

I took it to mean over the higher winds . It ripped you all 

[Masswx]

Starting at 2 am here  on 3k as Connecticut has a half foot. Bust.

[dendrite]

Maybe I can get 0

[Dalmatian90]

43 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Can't disagree... The infrastructure recovery might be a massive issue...

1938 my grandfather walked 10 miles to report the death of a neighbor from the hurricane to the state police barracks. They knew the roads wouldn't be open by the next day, forget about the telephone grid. I use neighbor somewhat loosely -- the unfortunate soul lived a couple miles away, my grandfather was one of the folks in the larger neighborhood summoned to try and help rescuing him from the collapsed barn; I imagine there were 10 and 12 year old boys quickly dispatched in all directions to spread the word. 

Chainsaws were rare, highway departments didn't have payloaders, and every suburban farmer wanna be didn't have 30 horsepower tractors with front end loaders. You can open roads up pretty fast when you're pushing most of the debris out of the way, and only need to make the minimum cuts when necessary to make something small enough to push. (I'm a suburban farmer wannabe.) 

The electric companies didn't have digger-derrick trucks. They certainly didn't have the ability to mobilize thousands of crews in advance and stage them just outside the expected impact area. Nor any interstates for the crews to travel over -- once they started to mobilize they were driving through the downtown traffic of every city in slower and less reliable trucks. 

Now people today would be much more bent out of shape -- our dependency on electricity is certainly more. 1938 Connecticut hadn't completed rural electrification (that would come in 1941), so a lot of folks were able to fail back to things like well hand pumps they had grown up using. But the response, especially in the first few days, will be far better than 1938. 

Doesn't seem like Florida takes more than a couple weeks to get the vast majority of power restored, and the places it takes longer are mainly the relatively small ground zero of the storm coming ashore.