“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Can someone remind me what the deal is with January 2022?

I porked us with like 11-12", while it was an all-timer 15 miles se...even west of us in ORH got well over a foot...subby city here.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see how there isn't insane fronto near that northern and western gradient...

I’d look more to see where the back bent WF is at 700 and 500

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I wonder what the models would've showed if 1978 happened today

Probably a big storm with great snow and liquid output but one would see how each model even today would still have their biases still.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

5-6" even up here... Not terrible

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

.4 for me, .25 for my office.  Missing by 200 miles is so much easier than missing by 75

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’d look more to see where the back bent WF is at 700 and 500

It usually aligns with that...it's a crude approximation. IDK how many times I see these QPF charts with that sharp gradients, and the best mid level banding ends up right where the QPF gradient is.

[Chrisrotary12]

3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Can someone remind me what the deal is with January 2022?

My memory: With 36-48 hours to go it looked like a regional burial: 1-3' for all. 2' for us. But then model guidance began honing in on smoking only 128 and points southeast. Think we ended up with like 12" of sand. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It usually aligns with that...it's a crude approximation. IDK how many times I see these QPF charts with that sharp gradients, and the best mid level banding ends up right where the QPF gradient is.

The euro kind of keeps that more south. I’m not sure if you saw my comment earlier, but this storm is almost more like a fire hose that comes in with some convection in it versus getting all the moisture from the mid level dynamics. Mid levels come into play, but this thing is a beast as H5 deepens to the south. 

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray, FFS relax and just enjoy how this unfolds. 

Scott is having flashbacks to Bliz of '13 and how it was in GHG w/ the wet paste and high winds!!!  Trees DECIMATED!

12z GFS now has sfc low about 50 mi SE of ACK.  Ydy it was 75 mi.  And the tuck NW on the 12z HRRR?  I'm really concerned here for south coast and E coastal MA.  Most models now explicitly show sustained 45-50 kt w/ gusts near 70 kt.  My rule about winds for nor'easter is that G70 kt or more on the coast, that transitions to high end impact since gusts this high in nor'easters are relatively uncommon, so the trees and infrastructure are not "used to it."

If Weymouth gets another 20"+ storm, Scott will *still* find issues and bee-OTCH about this winter.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

My memory: With 36-48 hours to go it looked like a regional burial: 1-3' for all. 2' for us. But then model guidance began honing in on smoking only 128 and points southeast. Think we ended up with like 12" of sand. 

Top-three bone job for me.

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

My memory: With 36-48 hours to go it looked like a regional burial: 1-3' for all. 2' for us. But then model guidance began honing in on smoking only 128 and points southeast. Think we ended up with like 12" of sand. 

The so-called Messenger Shuffle occurred and the storm center went further east than initially forecasted. Stopped it from really being a true all-timer.

[bristolri_wx]

Looks like they are planning to run hurricane hunter recon all weekend to get extra data for the storm as it's forming.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Wxbear25]

Not sure it makes much sense for the Euro to bulldoze the ULL NE instead of NNE between hr 42-48 given the overall orientation of the trough being more negative and the resultant backed heights north/northeast of the ULL. Just looking at how the vorticity is oriented around the ULL also makes me think its "momentum" would continue in a more northward direction relative to what its showing.

Im wondering is a bit of convective feedback occurring east of the Euro, on the 12z run you can see the lower heights reaching a bit eastward, so I guess thats where its getting pulled a bit eastward relative to where I would think it was going

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro kind of keeps that more south. I’m not sure if you saw my comment earlier, but this storm is almost more like a fire hose that comes in with some convection in it versus getting all the moisture from the mid level dynamics. Mid levels come into play, but this thing is a beast as H5 deepens to the south. 

Give me graphic to denote this..."firehose" usually implies ample moisture given deep fetch off of the Atlantic. Not trying to debate so much as make sure I understand...

[Chrisrotary12]

34 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This is from 30 minutes ago.... CMC got them spooked? 

One of these things is not like the other. Expected - 7". P&C: 8-14".

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Top-three bone job for me.

ASEMATT 

[WxWatcher007]

Blizzard warnings creeping inland. All of southern CT now. 

[wxsniss]

So much to archive, we're living another museum piece...

Didn't see @Ginx snewx post this earlier, KBOS and KPVD Bufkit from 12z GFS:

KBOS

KPVD

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

WNE/NYC Metro Juno QPF has entered the chat

It blew Jan 16 from phil-nyc. Basically had it grazing them and we know how that panned out. Yea that’s a decade ago but ive seen it do it several times since. Mar 18 was another IIRC…

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Give me graphic to denote this..."firehose" usually implies ample moisture given deep fetch off of the Atlantic. Not trying to debate so much as make sure I understand...

Hold on…..

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

Depending on rest of 12z blizzard warning probably expanded but those are some insane winds up to Boston


.

BOS G70 kt Bliz of 93.  No higher gusts since then and this was the strongest wind gust in BOS since G88 kt in Edna Sep 1954.

[ineedsnow]

what makes this storm even better is we already got a bunch of snow otg.. little melting the last few weeks

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Blizzard warnings creeping inland. All of southern CT now. 

Still to conservative 11-15” seems way too low 

[DomNH]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

My memory: With 36-48 hours to go it looked like a regional burial: 1-3' for all. 2' for us. But then model guidance began honing in on smoking only 128 and points southeast. Think we ended up with like 12" of sand. 

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Top-three bone job for me.

At least this was never really "our" storm with a big rug pull at the end like you describe or like the Boxing Day boning. I have little doubt that it won't top last month's for totals around here, but if we can get into a fronto band or two it could still be a lot of fun. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Yet again the eps is a bit wetter than the op .. red flag in my opinion that op is out to lunch 

[ineedsnow]

EPS

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, DomNH said:

 

At least this was never really "our" storm with a big rug pull at the end like you describe or like the Boxing Day boning. I have little doubt that it won't top last month's for totals around here, but if we can get into a fronto band or two it could still be a lot of fun. 

This is true.... suppose could look at this as a positive outcome. 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

BOS G70 kt Bliz of 93.  No higher gusts since then and this was the strongest winds gust in BOS since G88 kt in Edna Sep 1954.

Actually, '78 had 79 to 83 MPH Gust in Boston recorded at the time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro kind of keeps that more south. I’m not sure if you saw my comment earlier, but this storm is almost more like a fire hose that comes in with some convection in it versus getting all the moisture from the mid level dynamics. Mid levels come into play, but this thing is a beast as H5 deepens to the south. 

[CoastalWx]

Here is your back bent WF on euro. Goes from center of H7 low and curls near ack and off Chatham. Can see that on the kinks of the height lines. 
 

on the 3k Nam check out that moisture train feeding into SNE. The real mid level dynamics verbatim on this snap shot are in NJ, but that is a pure gravy train on the 3k Nam. Eventually you do get the mid level forcing, but with such a deep cutoff…that moisture train looks impressive. 
 

it’s just something I noticed. There will still be deformation bands etc. 

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still to conservative 11-15” seems way too low 

I know it’s voodoo, but it never pans out when they go high before it starts snowing. Once we have 10 on the ground, they can go 15-20 lol