“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[MuddyWx]

I know it's early, but bufkit looks pretty good for BOS. 12z GFS is 13:1, 12.4"

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

It's starting...

[Masswx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

S Wey 

Where you and dad live 

North wey we live in 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

North wey we live in 

No you are mistaken. Dad has always said S Wey .

[TheSnowman]

I just got my rental car.  Going to Boston for stuff tonight, go to NYC Saturday.  So the michelle should start trending better.  

[weathafella]

37 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

What did Boston get for the Jan storm? Was it around 23”?

I think 23.2

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No you are mistaken. Dad has always said S Wey .

Don’t interact 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Does it include today's stuff?

Yeah my 1/2" is included in the 16.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I just got my rental car.  Going to Boston for stuff tonight, go to NYC Saturday.  So the michelle should start trending better.  

You returning Sunday?  Should be doable driving.  

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t interact 

How can you/ he not?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

How can you/ he not?

He was just asking me why does he saying that and I said to piss me off.

[Mj-pvd]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn’t there only like 4-5” left there OTG?

I’m on college hill on the downslope,  I have at least a foot in my yard still only get a few hours of sun a day.

[8611Blizz]

Scooter teaching the child the ways of the jungle... 

[TheSnowman]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You returning Sunday?  Should be doable driving.  

No I’m returning TUESDAY.  That’s why I always know this storm was coming.  I’m going to miss it.  Was home for 18 days.  

 

Hence the Name of the thread.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He was just asking me why does he saying that and I said to piss me off.

Angry dad 

[MegaMike]

I never imagined the GFS/GEFS scoring a coup against almost every available modeling system. Yet, here we are...

As we continue to see westward trends, the NBM (13z) is starting to beef up mean-snowfall considerably. This doesn't include today's snow event (map goes from Sunday 1am to Tues. 1am). As modeled, it looks like it'll start snowing b/n ~1pm-7pm on Sunday and ending late Monday night across SNE. 

For clarity, the NWP members incorporated into the NBM are (generally) lagged by 1-2 cycles... For example, the cycles utilized for the 13z NBM are 00z (EPS), 06z (GEFS), and 03z (SREF). Additionally, on DESI, the 13z NBM is the most up-to-date cycle available, so on top of the 1-2 cycle delay, you have another 1 cycle delay for post-processing... I understand why people are so confused with the NBM's snowfall depiction (not even considering how weights are incorporated which vary by time).

You can see which cycles are used at https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard. In the past, I only added the weights (https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf). Based on the most recent model cycles, the mean will bump up next cycle too.

 

 

 

[kdxken]

NWS says meh. Maybe the cape gets something.

 

[FXWX]

38 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

How about Charley Bagley ?

Here is the deal with the TWS located on what was Constitution Plaza... I spent quite a bit of time there back in the day; they would actually let me in to watch what they were doing, as long as I stayed out of the way.  Ken Garee was the most conservative of all the forecasters at TWS; hated to hype a storm unless it was going to be a monster.  On his Sunday afternoon update the day before the 78 Blizzard, on WTIC AM, he made the following statement: "Wherever you are during the late afternoon period on Monday (the day of the Blizzard of 78) is where more likely than not you will be for the next 2 or 3 days."  I never forgot the call; and at the time he was making that statement, I was looking at the LFM model panels, which had just come off of the Naval weather facsimile I had just purchased.   It nailed the capture and the retrograde perfectly... 

[radarman]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He was just asking me why does he saying that and I said to piss me off.

We get under skin 

[NoCORH4L]

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Here is the deal with the TWS located on what was Constitution Plaza... I spent quite a bit of time there back in the day; they would actually let me in to watch what they were doing, as long as I stayed out of the way.  Ken Garee was the most conservative of all the forecasters at TWS; hated to hype a storm unless it was going to be a monster.  On his Sunday afternoon update the day before the 78 Blizzard, on WTIC AM, he made the following statement: "Wherever you are during the late afternoon period on Monday (the day of the Blizzard of 78) is where more likely than not you will be for the next 2 or 3 days."  I never forgot the call; and at the time he was making that statement, I was looking at the LFM model panels, which had just come off of the Naval weather facsimile I had just purchased.   It nailed the capture and the retrograde perfectly... 

How is/was that possible? I mean yeah it was a lot of snow, but it was 1978 not 1888. They still had plenty of big trucks with plows, and salt. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

NWS says meh. Maybe the cape gets something.

 

Cocked?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cocked?

they probably want to make sure there's no shift east before making bigger changes

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM running hopefully shows a hit this run

[Henry's Weather]

Thus far 18z NAM has shifted everything west (24hr out), probably a good thing

[dendrite]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

they probably want to make sure there's no shift east before making bigger changes

They may want today’s system to clear first so the multiple headlines don’t cause confusion.

[Henry's Weather]

Antecedent heights are higher

[Baroclinic Zone]

Oh boy oh boy!

6hr increment pbp