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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco


TheSnowman
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7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Actually looks good by hr120

Starts off a bit sloppy, but extrapolated from here it honestly looks pretty good. For NE, you'd want the vort to close off and capture a hair later as otherwise it could occlude south of you (think Boxing Day). 

500hv.conus.png

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11 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Starts off a bit sloppy, but extrapolated from here it honestly looks pretty good. For NE, you'd want the vort to close off and capture a hair later as otherwise it could occlude south of you (think Boxing Day). 

500hv.conus.png

With the 500 cut off where it is on the ICON at 120 hr and the sfc low about 100 mi E of ORF, that should be enough for a movement close enough to SNE for sig snow.  The strong vort SW of the cut off is somewhat of a wildcard.  It seems to be rotating around the cut off faster than the upper low itself, so does it continue and go negative as it crosses the coast and you get one large cut off low just S of LI?

The ridge over the Rockies is staying put and not de-amplifying, so that's good.  Downstream the flow is still rather flat, but there are modest 500 height rises S of NS and NFL 108 to 120 hr.

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