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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco


TheSnowman
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7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

What a storm. Let's bring that about 50 miles northwest.

Well, at least at this point there's a little bit more of model support than there was with that last fantasy storm that showed something big for a few days and then just went out to see on all the models... thinking this one has a better shot

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2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, at least at this point there's a little bit more of model support than there was with that last fantasy storm that showed something big for a few days and then just went out to see on all the models... thinking this one has a better shot

This looks very different to me than the most recent misses. Let's see what Euro/Euro AI does in about 90 minutes. 

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The GFS solution is odd..  It's as though it is too intense.  It's highly contracted in all quadrants, very annular and focused internally to the axis of the cyclone.  If you saw any one of those D8 GFS September hurricanes running parallel to the EC, it would like like that at PGF layout.  I guess on the east side it does open up some. But it's like it's overly responsive to forcing very early in the total wave space, and so it then preferences that early location and is thus also overly - if perhaps erroneously - nucleated there.

That said, even if so ... that surface solution is within an envelope of acceptable error.  It could reposition on the next run ... 50 or even 100 my NW of this run's fix, and still be in said envelope of acceptable error.   If we get to within 30 or so hours and all this is still dosing drips like this...then we'll discuss whether it will be idiosyncratically positioning, relative to the deep layer structures, with more confidence as to where.

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