“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Prismshine Productions]

would probably have a death band further north with that

Shift it NW about 75-100 miles and whole board wins

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like I'm out on the first one..hopefully latter events work out.

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

What a storm. Let's bring that about 50 miles northwest.

Well, at least at this point there's a little bit more of model support than there was with that last fantasy storm that showed something big for a few days and then just went out to see on all the models... thinking this one has a better shot

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Shift it NW about 75-100 miles and whole board wins

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

This is going to be hand to hand combat. You can already see the factions developing and the call to arms isn't too far behind lol.

[Prismshine Productions]

Actually looking at this image we got closer to 100-125 miles of NW wiggle room that doesn't mix the south coast

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like I'm out on the first one..hopefully latter events work out.

I assume you’re being facetious this far out. Especially since these never trend north especially on the GFS.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, at least at this point there's a little bit more of model support than there was with that last fantasy storm that showed something big for a few days and then just went out to see on all the models... thinking this one has a better shot

This looks very different to me than the most recent misses. Let's see what Euro/Euro AI does in about 90 minutes. 

[Prismshine Productions]

This is going to be hand to hand combat. You can already see the factions developing and the call to arms isn't too far behind lol.

Yeah...South of Pike v North of Pike v East of River v West of River

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[ineedsnow]

CMC might be good

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We love you canada

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC might be good

It crushes SNE and continues the 12z trend away from offshore. 

[SouthCoastMA]

That's a LBSW but probably still good

[ineedsnow]

WOW!

[MJO812]

Cmc is ridiculous.  Jeez

[JKEisMan]

Consistency this far out is quite good.

[ineedsnow]

weenie me now but I honestly think this is coming north and will stall off the south coast before it heads out... top 5 incoming just has that look! 

[ORH_wxman]

This is one is gaining legs very quickly across all guidance. 

[Typhoon Tip]

what the fuck does LBSW mean?   wtf does social diversification recognition have to do with atmospheric dynamics -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

And the GFS AI which has Not been sniffing this one, says I’m In at 12z.      

Huh? It’s been showing a biggie for many runs already…

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow Sunday - Tuesday 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what the fuck does LBSW mean?   wtf does social diversification recognition have to do with atmospheric dynamics -

Load Blown South West  - it is a Ray think I think

[ineedsnow]

UKIE!  close but seems to blows it load early.. all major models have some kind of storm at 12z!! we take!

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Huh? It’s been showing a biggie for many runs already…

Yeah... something like 8-10 runs? 

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

weenie me now but I honestly think this is coming north and will stall off the south coast before it heads out... top 5 incoming just has that look! 

We have maps to post for the CMC?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

UKIE!  close but seems to blows it load early.. all major models have some kind of storm at 12z!! we take!

Waiting for the JMA

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah... something like 8-10 runs? 

Too many smashed accordions to remember accurately…

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Load Blown South West  - it is a Ray think I think

Looked like it would be early on..but didn't occlude down there. NJ gets slammed along with SNE

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Looked like it would be early on..but didn't occlude down there. NJ gets slammed along with SNE

Looping h5 conus, the bigger concern would be a later or sloppier phase vs lbsw imo. EMA is in a great spot.

[Typhoon Tip]

The GFS solution is odd..  It's as though it is too intense.  It's highly contracted in all quadrants, very annular and focused internally to the axis of the cyclone.  If you saw any one of those D8 GFS September hurricanes running parallel to the EC, it would like like that at PGF layout.  I guess on the east side it does open up some. But it's like it's overly responsive to forcing very early in the total wave space, and so it then preferences that early location and is thus also overly - if perhaps erroneously - nucleated there.

That said, even if so ... that surface solution is within an envelope of acceptable error.  It could reposition on the next run ... 50 or even 100 my NW of this run's fix, and still be in said envelope of acceptable error.   If we get to within 30 or so hours and all this is still dosing drips like this...then we'll discuss whether it will be idiosyncratically positioning, relative to the deep layer structures, with more confidence as to where.

[Snowcrazed71]

Wow... Looking at the CMC and the GFS 12z runs really gives more confidence in what we might see Sunday, Monday time frame. I'm starting to feel this one. Let's see what the Euro does and just a little bit