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2026 Severe Wx - General Thread


largetornado
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day1otlk_v_20260621_2000.thumb.png.993c80d077d65dfd2d11d91bac884537.png

What a day.. I'm surprised they didn't go with moderate at some point. Even at 20z it was obvious something was up. Evansville fire and EMA were talking on the radio about watching Ryan Hall trying to figure out where the tornado was.

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1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

Stupid X posts won't allow me to see the og images so I can't find out what Z is :unsure:.

I feel there is a parallel to IL's insane tor numbers, what state had numbers to the moon one year? AL in 2011?

AL in 2011 with 146. “Padded” with 62 on April 27. 

KS in 2008 had 187. 
TX in 2015 had 244. Still a few outbreaks away from touching that in IL. 

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38 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

AL in 2011 with 146. “Padded” with 62 on April 27. 

KS in 2008 had 187. 
TX in 2015 had 244. Still a few outbreaks away from touching that in IL. 

If I was any good at stats I'd tot the anomaly from the state avg, and the sigmas. Its been a long time since OH valley has been the center of the action; I ken when I was young tornado alley included IL, IN, OH.

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20 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

If I was any good at stats I'd tot the anomaly from the state avg, and the sigmas. Its been a long time since OH valley has been the center of the action; I ken when I was young tornado alley included IL, IN, OH.

AL 2011 was 4 to 5 sigma, IL 2026 is 3.9 to 4 sigma. KS 08 was ~3 sigma and TX 15 was ~2 sigma. 

Your instinct was on point, AL11 is still the king, IL26 in 2nd place. there's still time lol

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On 6/22/2026 at 10:51 AM, Torchageddon said:

Stupid X posts won't allow me to see the og images so I can't find out what Z is :unsure:.

I feel there is a parallel to IL's insane tor numbers, what state had numbers to the moon one year? AL in 2011?

On 6/22/2026 at 12:11 PM, luckyweather said:

AL in 2011 with 146. “Padded” with 62 on April 27. 

KS in 2008 had 187. 
TX in 2015 had 244. Still a few outbreaks away from touching that in IL. 

Yeah, being the epicenter of a super outbreak will do that.

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42 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

Again with the late city addition to the watch. Why does the SPC kept doing that; so dumb. 

i came here hoping to see this...didn't let me down.

most of the time there's watch collab, so may be the spc or lot.

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tornado possible near Chicago

Quote

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

 

* Tornado Warning for...

Northeastern Kane County in northeastern Illinois...

Northwestern Cook County in northeastern Illinois...

 

* Until 645 PM CDT.

 

* At 608 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado

was located over Carpentersville, moving east at 20 mph.

 

HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter.

 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without

shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.

Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree

damage is likely.

 

* This dangerous storm will be near...

Elgin, Hoffman Estates, Carpentersville, Barrington Hills, and

East Dundee around 615 PM CDT.

Streamwood, Barrington, and Inverness around 620 PM CDT.

 

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The SPC put out a meso discussion this afternoon for southeast Iowa into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, which included an 80% chance of a watch, which seemed odd.  They were focusing on a band of cumulus through this area.  However, the area is capped and no models have been predicting anything around here, only northern and western Iowa tonight.  Nothing ever developed and the cumulus faded away.

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13 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The SPC put out a meso discussion this afternoon for southeast Iowa into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, which included an 80% chance of a watch, which seemed odd.  They were focusing on a band of cumulus through this area.  However, the area is capped and no models have been predicting anything around here, only northern and western Iowa tonight.  Nothing ever developed and the cumulus faded away.

Was it Broyles? If it was, I am surprised we didn't get a PDS cumulus watch. 

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15 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The SPC put out a meso discussion this afternoon for southeast Iowa into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, which included an 80% chance of a watch, which seemed odd.  They were focusing on a band of cumulus through this area.  However, the area is capped and no models have been predicting anything around here, only northern and western Iowa tonight.  Nothing ever developed and the cumulus faded away.

To be fair, there was one severe cell that did go up.

I'm pretty sure it hinged upon surface convergence along the outflow / differential heating boundary from the early day MCS in Northern WI / MI being sufficient enough for widespread initiation, and it was close as several other cells did attempt to go up.

But hey, it happens. And it just shows how sensitive the potential is in such a moisture-laden / high instability / weakly capped environment.

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To be fair, there was one severe cell that did go up.
I'm pretty sure it hinged upon surface convergence along the outflow / differential heating boundary from the early day MCS in Northern WI / MI being sufficient enough for widespread initiation, and it was close as several other cells did attempt to go up.
But hey, it happens. And it just shows how sensitive the potential is in such a moisture-laden / high instability / weakly capped environment.

na, it was just a horrible md and outlook adjustment. nothing supported it, not even the wofs that they specifically referenced.

the area was capped, there was no boundary nor anything to force development across eastern iowa or northern illinois.
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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:


na, it was just a horrible md and outlook adjustment. nothing supported it, not even the wofs that they specifically referenced.

the area was capped, there was no boundary nor anything to force development across eastern iowa or northern illinois.

Eh, I just double checked and the cap on the 18z DVN sounding was weak at best. It was really an issue of nebulous forcing if anything. The convergence from the outflow boundary simply wasn't enough to overcome the weak cap for widespread development.  It could have easily gone the other way had surface convergence ended up a bit stronger.

Now, the 80% probability given for a watch was way too presumptuous (a MD for isolated coverage, which did happen, would have been better), I'll grant that. But the potential was there and their discussion did a good job delving into the backgroud environment that existed.

The thing too is, there will be more conditional / low-predictability opportunities like this all throughout the weekend.

Above all though, this MD was nowhere near as bad as the Broyles one a while back.

 

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