Ridgewoodweather125 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Ridgewood NJ. 36 degrees. Steady light to moderate snow. Not sticking to anything yet . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I'm still thinking 12-18" for NE Sussex county. Locally higher in spots.I agree with that for the typical NW NJ jackpot zone from Highland Lakes / West Milford to Hardyston, Sparta Mt, Jefferson to Hopatcong. But I think still a very solid chance of 24”. It’s that early stage nervousness as some guidance backs off / shifts around while we watch it develop in real time. Will be mid to late afternoon until the more organized banding begins to really develop and we can begin to truly know which way this is going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 EURO AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Euro looks to have held serve 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I see alot of heavy precipitation in S NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO AI We'll know tomorrow how this fared. But something to keep in mind: A new study led by scientists from the University of Chicago, in collaboration with New York University and the University of California Santa Cruz, is testing the limits of AI-powered weather prediction. In research published May 21 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they found that neural networks cannot forecast weather events beyond the scope of existing training data—which might leave out events like 200-year floods, unprecedented heat waves or massive hurricanes. https://news.uchicago.edu/story/ai-good-weather-forecasting-can-it-predict-freak-weather-events 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hrr great and still snowingGets to 11.6 at the end it's run. At the same time on 12z run was at 10.2 and finished with 15.5. Good sign. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: While we wait for the Board psychiatrist to arrive to address the gloom, the 12z UKMET held serve. Moreover, the 16z RAP at 21 hours showed: The 12 hour intervals for the 12z HREF were: 2/22 12z-2/23 0z: 2/23 0z-12z: 2/23 12z-2/24 0z: There’s going to be a western deform band. Where it is has yet to be determined but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was where the rap shows it. A few other mesos have it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Models shifting east the day of a big storm is an American pastime NWS sees something different as even Dutchess County under Blizzard Warning with totals increased to 12-18”. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, jdt said: I agree with that for the typical NW NJ jackpot zone from Highland Lakes / West Milford to Hardyston, Sparta Mt, Jefferson to Hopatcong. But I think still a very solid chance of 24”. It’s that early stage nervousness as some guidance backs off / shifts around while we watch it develop in real time. Will be mid to late afternoon until the more organized banding begins to really develop and we can begin to truly know which way this is going. . What kind of banding? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: We'll know tomorrow how this fared. But something to keep in mind: A new study led by scientists from the University of Chicago, in collaboration with New York University and the University of California Santa Cruz, is testing the limits of AI-powered weather prediction. In research published May 21 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they found that neural networks cannot forecast weather events beyond the scope of existing training data—which might leave out events like 200-year floods, unprecedented heat waves or massive hurricanes. https://news.uchicago.edu/story/ai-good-weather-forecasting-can-it-predict-freak-weather-events Thanks Don! Here is the EURO. Held strength just slipped SE from previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NYC has a full snow day tomorrow. No remote learning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don! Here is the EURO. Held strength just slipped SE from previous runs. Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches. Make it make sense 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Tool Band locationRadar → HRRR Snow rates: HRRR Band confidence: HREF Temps / p-typeObs → RAP → NAM 3k CAD statusObs + RAP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, qg_omega said: Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches. Make it make sense Euro just showed the storm 2 days ago lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Down to 1004 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I don't know about you guys but I think the radar looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said: Very light snow falling. Tiny flakes. Temp slowly falling, 31.4F Same here (12:40) and temperature has fallen 2 degrees over the last hour. Currently 31.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light snow starting to break out in my area already. I like the look on radar. LFG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Another thing to watch is the surface low does head east off the coast but eventually makes a move northward kinda like a J as the mid low fully captures and stacks. At the top of the J is where we sorta see the stall or minor loop. Not sure if either will fully happen but something to watch as we nowcast. Some of the mesos show this motion a little better than the globals show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches. Make it make sense Because the short term models are snowier and euro hasn't been locked in at all. There will also be banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Mail Man said: I don't know about you guys but I think the radar looks solid. Looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Dark Star said: What kind of banding? why do you ask these questions being a red tag? what are we getting at here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snow picking up here temperature dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Travel ban in NYC from 9pm until noon tomorrow . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches. Make it make sense Locked up tight. For days. Weeks even. Stop. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2PM on the HRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 What kind of banding?. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islandersguy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NYC has a full snow day tomorrow. No remote learning.Now I can actually enjoy the storm!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Blizzard warnings extended further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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