The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[kat5hurricane]

3 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend

This is not an issue at all. The biggest question is how far north the storm gets before moving east and where the best banding sets up. 

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast

Main show isn’t until after 4-5

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast

Every model had rain until at least 1pm unless you are in northern areas

[NJwx85]

The radar looks good. Bands of snow back to Central PA. I still think there will be widespread totals of 18-24” and someone will crack 30”. NWS agrees.

[sussexcountyobs]

Leave it to the GFS to shit the bed at the last minute when it counts.

[JonClaw]

Inside baseball: NYC will be closing schools. No remote day.

[psv88]

North and west posters are on the bubble but that’s to be expected. This is largely a coastal event for maximum impacts 

[Northof78]

Light to occasionally moderate snow...no accumulation. 

[Prue11]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Leave it to the GFS to shit the bed at the last minute when it counts.

Global are useless at this point 

[Mr. T.]

Clark, NJ. Switch over occurred about 5 minutes ago.

[winterwx21]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So like the gfs to shit the bed after leading the way for a week. It couldn't handle the pressure 

Slept late today and just getting caught up, but I'm not shocked to see that the models lowered amounts. We knew that while we couldn't discount them, it was possible that the few models that were showing the monster amounts were wrong. We've seen a lot of Euro and RGEM runs showing the much lower amounts. That's why I never went nuts and said 12 to 16 inches for our area. I'm wondering now though if it should be lowered to 10 to 14. Still going to be a great storm. I see HRRR and NAM3km give us close to 15 which would be great. Hopefully everyone knows to never get excited by the RIDICULOUSLY bad regular NAM. That model is a joke. 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What are your thoughts on the GFS and general model cut-backs? Could the further south solution be due to the warmer water temps being south?

This will have to be watched. I suspect things will level off and we'll wind up with around 1.50" QPF in much of the area. I still think 14"-20" is plausible for BDR at this time, unless the shift continues through the 18z cycle. Let's see where things are at 18z. If the storm develops explosively, one will see higher than 12:1 ratios even with the wind, especially where the banding sets up. The mesoscale models will provide insight into banding, frontogenic forcing, etc.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I still lean near the low end.  Above the RGEM but below many others.  Maybe 12-16 near NYC though obviously if a February 06 band sets up that goes out the window, but there is always risk of that

I like 12-18 now for nyc

[KrummWx]

Steady light to moderate snow in Manhattan for the past hour or so. No accums or sticking yet (at least not visible from the 17th floor window)

[Dark Star]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

who can explain why most of the models are shifting east with totals all of a sudden - what is it being caused by ? I can't figure it out - could it be any mixing issues or  dry slots ?

Not mixing issues or dry slots, but the most intense precipitation is over the Delmarvala.  Unless this thing sits a while, it may be gone too quick?

[Jt17]

who can explain why most of the models are shifting east with totals all of a sudden - what is it being caused by ? I can't figure it out - could it be any mixing issues or  dry slots ?

Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts.

Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge.



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[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Global are useless at this point 

Untrue

[NYER72]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I like 12-18 now for nyc

a foot on the ground in NYC is a great storm, and to be honest any more than that is just crippling and over burdensome

[VlinderF]

Steady white rain in the UES. Not looking at models; just enjoying the ride for now.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts.

Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge.



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The NAM did cut back too but in fairness anyone who’s followed it for years knew it would lol. 

[Mail Man]

I’m dooming over the rain but from what you guys said won’t be a big deal 

[BoulderWX]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

North and west posters are on the bubble but that’s to be expected. This is largely a coastal event for maximum impacts 

The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see

[SnowGoose69]

I am a tad surprised that JFK is still rain...the soundings do not show anything close to a deep enough layer through 1500 feet for that but should be all snow by 19Z at latest.

[Mr. T.]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I am a couple miles south of you still liquid as of 11:12 am

Extremely wet snow though. Will be awhile before it sticks to ground.

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts.

Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge.



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It's not only the globals. HRRR last night had my area getting close to 2 feet, but now it's 15. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see

Are they riding the nbm?

[Jt17]

The NAM did cut back too but in fairness anyone who’s followed it for years knew it would lol. 

Yes to 2.2 inches of QPF for nyc lol - I think 1.4-2 inches of QPF is a pretty safe bet for the area. Banding and ratios will determine the best spots.


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[Big Jims Videos]

Mixing with snow in western Monmouth in Millstone according to my friend who moved there from by me literally to see more snow than the immediate coast. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

It's not only the globals. HRRR last night had my area getting close to 2 feet, but now it's 15. 

we've seen this movie before; at least i have. so we go from historic to just a snow storm. what can you do, these models were spitting out the end of the world last night. there is an upper limit to snow here, and we should always keep that in mind, how rare 2 foot plus really is.

[Rmine1]

“Historic” was the kiss of death. However, It would have been a lot more painful if this was the only opportunity for snow this winter. Mother Nature is one fickle “bleep”.