Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Mail Man said: I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast Main show isn’t until after 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Mail Man said: I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast Every model had rain until at least 1pm unless you are in northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The radar looks good. Bands of snow back to Central PA. I still think there will be widespread totals of 18-24” and someone will crack 30”. NWS agrees. 3 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Leave it to the GFS to shit the bed at the last minute when it counts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Inside baseball: NYC will be closing schools. No remote day. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 North and west posters are on the bubble but that’s to be expected. This is largely a coastal event for maximum impacts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light to occasionally moderate snow...no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, sussexcountyobs said: Leave it to the GFS to shit the bed at the last minute when it counts. Global are useless at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Clark, NJ. Switch over occurred about 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So like the gfs to shit the bed after leading the way for a week. It couldn't handle the pressure Slept late today and just getting caught up, but I'm not shocked to see that the models lowered amounts. We knew that while we couldn't discount them, it was possible that the few models that were showing the monster amounts were wrong. We've seen a lot of Euro and RGEM runs showing the much lower amounts. That's why I never went nuts and said 12 to 16 inches for our area. I'm wondering now though if it should be lowered to 10 to 14. Still going to be a great storm. I see HRRR and NAM3km give us close to 15 which would be great. Hopefully everyone knows to never get excited by the RIDICULOUSLY bad regular NAM. That model is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What are your thoughts on the GFS and general model cut-backs? Could the further south solution be due to the warmer water temps being south? This will have to be watched. I suspect things will level off and we'll wind up with around 1.50" QPF in much of the area. I still think 14"-20" is plausible for BDR at this time, unless the shift continues through the 18z cycle. Let's see where things are at 18z. If the storm develops explosively, one will see higher than 12:1 ratios even with the wind, especially where the banding sets up. The mesoscale models will provide insight into banding, frontogenic forcing, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still lean near the low end. Above the RGEM but below many others. Maybe 12-16 near NYC though obviously if a February 06 band sets up that goes out the window, but there is always risk of that I like 12-18 now for nyc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Steady light to moderate snow in Manhattan for the past hour or so. No accums or sticking yet (at least not visible from the 17th floor window) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: who can explain why most of the models are shifting east with totals all of a sudden - what is it being caused by ? I can't figure it out - could it be any mixing issues or dry slots ? Not mixing issues or dry slots, but the most intense precipitation is over the Delmarvala. Unless this thing sits a while, it may be gone too quick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 who can explain why most of the models are shifting east with totals all of a sudden - what is it being caused by ? I can't figure it out - could it be any mixing issues or dry slots ?Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts. Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge. . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Global are useless at this point Untrue 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I like 12-18 now for nyc a foot on the ground in NYC is a great storm, and to be honest any more than that is just crippling and over burdensome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VlinderF Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Steady white rain in the UES. Not looking at models; just enjoying the ride for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts. Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge. . The NAM did cut back too but in fairness anyone who’s followed it for years knew it would lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I’m dooming over the rain but from what you guys said won’t be a big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: North and west posters are on the bubble but that’s to be expected. This is largely a coastal event for maximum impacts The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I am a tad surprised that JFK is still rain...the soundings do not show anything close to a deep enough layer through 1500 feet for that but should be all snow by 19Z at latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I am a couple miles south of you still liquid as of 11:12 am Extremely wet snow though. Will be awhile before it sticks to ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts. Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge. . It's not only the globals. HRRR last night had my area getting close to 2 feet, but now it's 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see Are they riding the nbm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The NAM did cut back too but in fairness anyone who’s followed it for years knew it would lol. Yes to 2.2 inches of QPF for nyc lol - I think 1.4-2 inches of QPF is a pretty safe bet for the area. Banding and ratios will determine the best spots. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Mixing with snow in western Monmouth in Millstone according to my friend who moved there from by me literally to see more snow than the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, winterwx21 said: It's not only the globals. HRRR last night had my area getting close to 2 feet, but now it's 15. we've seen this movie before; at least i have. so we go from historic to just a snow storm. what can you do, these models were spitting out the end of the world last night. there is an upper limit to snow here, and we should always keep that in mind, how rare 2 foot plus really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 “Historic” was the kiss of death. However, It would have been a lot more painful if this was the only opportunity for snow this winter. Mother Nature is one fickle “bleep”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Untrue Its true Mesos can pinpoint banding and small details this close unlike the globals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now