Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: And therein lies part of the problem. People have been calling this a historic storm now for 24 hours before even a flake falls. I'm not even sure what the word historic means anymore, to break into the top 20 the city needs 15.4 inches from the storm. Would that be historic? If they get 15.3 is that not historic? They got 11.4 inches last month so if they get 11.3 is that a bust? I get the excitement and I hope it is a great storm, but people calling a storm historic before anything happens....... I thought it’s mostly historic cuz of the strength and wind. The snow totals other than the NAM/GFS haven’t been that historic for NYC. It’ll be a historic snowfall for the NJ coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Idk she looks quite healthy to me and the upper levels aren’t even developed yet. She looks like she’s going to be a monster. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: But yet forum wide there was 11-18 inches. A few exceptions on the shore and CNJ. not much of nj saw more than a foot, and was not expected to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Mail Man said: I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend That’s the least of the worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Canadian if that were to verify it would only be a SECS in many areas - I would discount it at the present time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 East tics have now taken the heavy band offshore On the GFS. It's 6-8 if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Down to 35 snow mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GEM LEM looks great. don’t mind the cut back. Less snow clearing for the wife and less damage for me to repair in the marriage lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: You like looking at 3 models with the lowest totals and selectively forgetting the models that do show more and deciding that's your forecast. They like to see a sub 970 low crawling up the coast and chilling by Atlantic City and extrapolate that the higher end of model guidance is more likely since that should dump a ton of snow. . As of latest cycle there is not one model that paints 20+ for all of nj, nyc, and Long Island. Only the NAM had that to begin with. all I’m saying is their isn’t support for those numbers as “expected” especially in the western part of the area - when all short range models have scaled back and come closer to the globals. going to be an amazing storm. Just keeping it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: That’s the least of the worries. I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, North and West said: Every time, no matter what happens, remember it is out of our control. All of it is. No matter if it surprises or disappoints, you can’t change it. Maybe you want to prove you’re smarter or better one or another, but no matter what you think, you have no impact on the final outcome. Enjoy the journey. . this. its just all the people who downplayed it, well, can you blame them? storm hasn't gotten going yet, so we wait for nws to start dropping totals and making excuses. and, its really hard to get a blockbuster in cnj in late feb....boston different story. i have no idea what will happen but frankly, at 63 and no garage to keep equipment in, 2 feet is a bit much for me. i've got to dig my stuff out of a shed at the other end of the yard... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, RDRY said: East tics have now taken the heavy band offshore On the GFS. It's 6-8 if that happens. How is this helpful to anyone? First, 6-8 where? Even if you take the GFS verbatim, it’s pumping out over an inch liquid for a large portion of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Reggie' ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Mail Man said: I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend You gotta be kidding me lol you’ll be fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Mail Man said: I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast The best dynamics will be right along the coast. It was expected to start as rain on the immediate coast, may last until mid afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Mail Man said: I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend This is not an issue at all. The biggest question is how far north the storm gets before moving east and where the best banding sets up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Mail Man said: I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast Main show isn’t until after 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Mail Man said: I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast Every model had rain until at least 1pm unless you are in northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The radar looks good. Bands of snow back to Central PA. I still think there will be widespread totals of 18-24” and someone will crack 30”. NWS agrees. 3 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Leave it to the GFS to shit the bed at the last minute when it counts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Inside baseball: NYC will be closing schools. No remote day. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 North and west posters are on the bubble but that’s to be expected. This is largely a coastal event for maximum impacts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light to occasionally moderate snow...no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, sussexcountyobs said: Leave it to the GFS to shit the bed at the last minute when it counts. Global are useless at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Clark, NJ. Switch over occurred about 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So like the gfs to shit the bed after leading the way for a week. It couldn't handle the pressure Slept late today and just getting caught up, but I'm not shocked to see that the models lowered amounts. We knew that while we couldn't discount them, it was possible that the few models that were showing the monster amounts were wrong. We've seen a lot of Euro and RGEM runs showing the much lower amounts. That's why I never went nuts and said 12 to 16 inches for our area. I'm wondering now though if it should be lowered to 10 to 14. Still going to be a great storm. I see HRRR and NAM3km give us close to 15 which would be great. Hopefully everyone knows to never get excited by the RIDICULOUSLY bad regular NAM. That model is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What are your thoughts on the GFS and general model cut-backs? Could the further south solution be due to the warmer water temps being south? This will have to be watched. I suspect things will level off and we'll wind up with around 1.50" QPF in much of the area. I still think 14"-20" is plausible for BDR at this time, unless the shift continues through the 18z cycle. Let's see where things are at 18z. If the storm develops explosively, one will see higher than 12:1 ratios even with the wind, especially where the banding sets up. The mesoscale models will provide insight into banding, frontogenic forcing, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still lean near the low end. Above the RGEM but below many others. Maybe 12-16 near NYC though obviously if a February 06 band sets up that goes out the window, but there is always risk of that I like 12-18 now for nyc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Steady light to moderate snow in Manhattan for the past hour or so. No accums or sticking yet (at least not visible from the 17th floor window) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: who can explain why most of the models are shifting east with totals all of a sudden - what is it being caused by ? I can't figure it out - could it be any mixing issues or dry slots ? Not mixing issues or dry slots, but the most intense precipitation is over the Delmarvala. Unless this thing sits a while, it may be gone too quick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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