Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, liwxfan said: That's what I'm thinking too.. didn't know if that would ever happen again. If it's going to this is as good a chance as any. Agree 100%. I’ve never been more confident in potentially breaking those totals. 28” IMBY during that storm so we shall see. Either way this storm has the possibility of potentially being deadly. Hope the general public stay off the roads. Many of cars were abandoned on nicolls road and the LIE Feb 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Have to see if other mesos start picking up on the stalling idea… would be epic Occluding low, kinda checks out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Prue11 said: Agree 100%. I’ve never been more confident in potentially breaking those totals. 28” IMBY during that storm so we shall see. Either way this storm has the possibility of potentially being deadly. Hope the general public stay off the roads. Many of cars were abandoned on nicolls road and the LIE Feb 2013 Where in suffolk are you? I'm up in sound beach. Was in mount sinai in 2013.. got about 32 inches. Constant lightning coming off the harbor in that death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social That guy is trash person 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Mail Man said: That guy is trash person he was in youtube chat tonight arguing his point. about the models.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social He said no chance earlier this week and that monkeys will fly if the gfs is right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: He said no chance earlier this week and that monkeys will fly if the gfs is right. he claiming the gfs and nam with 30 inches will not be correct and he is probably right but he makes excuses for how bad the euro was with this storm from the onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Here's a little behind the scenes of what is going through a nws head tonight... Forecasting potential extreme events ("black swan" events as some call them) is always a psychological as well as scientific challenge. Yesterday I hemmed and hawed about mentioning blizzard conditions for Long Island for the upcoming storm and went with it in the end, the signal was too much to ignore. Now I'm confronted by the latest shorter term models, which refuse to back down from extreme snowfall amounts from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. How much do I accept those amounts?? I think those models are seeing what the European model still isn't, and that's the potential for heavy thundersnow with rates of 2-4 inches per hour for several hours, preceded and followed by additional snow at lesser rates. The European never gets hourly snowfall rates above an inch per hour, and with an intense storm like this that makes no sense. But if I bought the extreme numbers verbatim I'd have to forecast at least 2 feet of snow for nearly the entire NYC Tri-State area, Long Island, and all of NJ, and locally as much as 30-40 inches for parts of the Jersey shore up into western and central Long Island. Nope that's too extreme. I can be conservative and say as much as 20-25 inches for the former and 25-30 inches for the latter, there is still time to zero in on the right amounts. If the extreme numbers don't back down with the daytime Sunday model guidance and I can still provide a rationale for why they might happen, then I may have to keep trending toward them. For now time to get some sleep 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Mail Man said: That guy is trash person 100%. Clicked because I didn't know. Most models consistently showing some sort of bullseye over central jersey coast, but his 'last call' doesn't have it. And last call my foot... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Dynamic ratio wxnerds spitting out a 2.5 hour period of 7 to 8 inch an hour snow. Has the northeast in general ever seen 8 inch an hour snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Rgem sucks ass I don't even pay attention to the RGEM in advance of a big snowstorm, it always runs low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 29 minutes ago, psv88 said: Can’t believe I’m missing this one. Shame I feel your pain. I was in Daytona for PD2. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 remember to get on facebook and post the NAM or you are not a true weenieBahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GFS is late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northshorekid Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: he was in youtube chat tonight arguing his point. about the models.. He was indeed trolling their show tonight. You could tell Joe C was annoyed with DT. Can't understand how DT could rub people the wrong way... On a more important note, Joe and Joe had on Bill Goodman from the NWS Upton office. When Cioffi had his final call board up of 15-20 along Central/Eastern NJ and Long Island, Bill said that was too low in his mind, his thinking was 18-24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, TriPol said: GFS is late. it probably blew up! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Santa Claus said: remember to get on facebook and post the NAM or you are not a true weenie did that already. Also i'm truly surprised tropicaltidbits even has icon as a model choice. it's literally the worst model, the only thing that it's useful for is 2m surface temps it's somewhat accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 minutes ago, liwxfan said: Where in suffolk are you? I'm up in sound beach. Was in mount sinai in 2013.. got about 32 inches. Constant lightning coming off the harbor in that death band. Miller place. Was an epic storm hoping this one can beat it, but I think we’re more in the 20-24” range but we’ve seen it time and time again bands like to setup over our area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Blizzardo said: it probably blew up! tony stole it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 20 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Have to see if other mesos start picking up on the stalling idea… would be epic The RAP model pretty much shows the stall start to happen right when the pressure begins to significantly bomb out. Here's a 9 hr loop of virtually very little to no movement from about 8 pm tomorrow night until 5 am Monday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GFS is finally running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 34 minutes ago, psv88 said: Can’t believe I’m missing this one. Shame I have a confession to make-I’m missing it too. I’m in New Orleans at a friend’s birthday. I looked into coming back today and it just wasn’t feasible and tomorrow forget it. It sucks lol. I’m supposed to come back Tuesday but who knows about the situation with the airports by then. 1 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: The RAP model pretty much shows the stall start to happen right when the pressure begins to significantly bomb out. Here's a 9 hr loop of virtually very little to no movement from about 8 pm tomorrow night until 5 am Monday morning. There’s a capture that sorta happens as the storm stacks/starts to occlude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I have a confession to make-I’m missing it too. I’m in New Orleans at a friend’s birthday. I looked into coming back today and it just wasn’t feasible and tomorrow forget it. It sucks lol. I’m supposed to come back Tuesday but who knows about the situation with the airports by then. Wow. With the way you've been commenting on the storm, I never imagined that you were not here. Very sorry that you're going to miss it! Hopefully you're having a great time in New Orleans though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, winterwx21 said: Wow. With the way you've been commenting on the storm, I never imagined that you were not here. Very sorry that you're going to miss it! Hopefully you're having a great time in New Orleans though. I…. yeah. It sucks. But I’m thrilled for everyone and there will be plenty left when I get home. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Okay than GFS! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Well, this GFS run certainly ain't going to be one to back down. Incredible stuff into NYC. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: it probably blew up! "overflow error" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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