Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I am on the All In go big or go home train! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 21 hours ago, snowman19 said: I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally I would love to know Snowman19's latest thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 12z GEFS Total QPF Mean 2/22- 2/23-24 SNow 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Omg the rap stalls south of li 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 12z Summary Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 1/8 / 17.1 NAM: 2.5 / 24.1 NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.4 / 13.9 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1 GFS: 2.0 / 20.3 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8 GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7 GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8 Updated with GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 still snowing and stalled 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10-20” lollis to 24” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Updated with GEFSThe model outputs with lesser amounts are getting much bigger... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: still snowing and stalled Nudity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Track / speed more crucial on the 12z suite all looking good - great. RGEM/ICON AIGFS a bit quicker than GFS/NAM. The QPF will be better honed in on later 18z/00z and tomorrow with meso models. At the time Nam/GFS more robust but banding likely under done on the globals in general. There will likely (as occurs in these rapidly developing storms) bands that drop 0.5 or more in 2-3 hours / 3 - 6 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Nudity Not saying it cause it’s a bomb but RAP has been great only model to pick up on the sleet line stalling at Long Island sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKIE amped up a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ukie looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ukie looks great Ukie playing a methodical yet slow game of catch up. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The 14z experimental NBM V5.0: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 12z UKMET Total QPF 2/22-2/23- 24 Snow 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKIE Cyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 steve d has 14-20 inches at the coast and 12-16 for the city and nearby areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: steve d has 14-20 inches at the coast and 12-16 for the city and nearby areas.. Well he certainly changed his tune! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 12z Summary Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 1/8 / 17.1 NAM: 2.5 / 24.1 NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.4 / 13.9 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1 GFS: 2.0 / 20.3 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8 GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7 GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8 UKMET: 1/2 / 12.9 Updated with UKMET 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Ukie looks great Solidly driving very heavy amounts well into the Catskills FWIW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 14z experimental NBM V5.0: Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBWestchester Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well he certainly changed his tune! After browbeating anyone who dared suggest a storm for the northern MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Gfs got us here, but time to lean into the nam, rap, hrrr etc for details. For 48 hours, model after model to some degree is zoning in on Monmouth, ocean county, middlesex nj. Thats the jackpot. The rest of us can suffer with our 12-18. What a ride this winter. Glad it’s back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 14z experimental NBM V5.0: This is the more conservative one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: This is the more conservative one? Yes. That's correct. For purposes of comparison, the 14z v.4.3 had 24.6" of snow in NYC vs. 19" on v.5.0. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in. I'd like to see the 12z Euro come west some but agree that we are getting closer to the meso's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Updated with UKMET Love seeing the large shift NW on the UKMET. Still the lowest however still a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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