nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ukie looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ukie looks great Ukie playing a methodical yet slow game of catch up. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The 14z experimental NBM V5.0: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 12z UKMET Total QPF 2/22-2/23- 24 Snow 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKIE Cyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 steve d has 14-20 inches at the coast and 12-16 for the city and nearby areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: steve d has 14-20 inches at the coast and 12-16 for the city and nearby areas.. Well he certainly changed his tune! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 12z Summary Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 1/8 / 17.1 NAM: 2.5 / 24.1 NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.4 / 13.9 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1 GFS: 2.0 / 20.3 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8 GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7 GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8 UKMET: 1/2 / 12.9 Updated with UKMET 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Ukie looks great Solidly driving very heavy amounts well into the Catskills FWIW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 14z experimental NBM V5.0: Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBWestchester Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well he certainly changed his tune! After browbeating anyone who dared suggest a storm for the northern MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Gfs got us here, but time to lean into the nam, rap, hrrr etc for details. For 48 hours, model after model to some degree is zoning in on Monmouth, ocean county, middlesex nj. Thats the jackpot. The rest of us can suffer with our 12-18. What a ride this winter. Glad it’s back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 14z experimental NBM V5.0: This is the more conservative one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: This is the more conservative one? Yes. That's correct. For purposes of comparison, the 14z v.4.3 had 24.6" of snow in NYC vs. 19" on v.5.0. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in. I'd like to see the 12z Euro come west some but agree that we are getting closer to the meso's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Updated with UKMET Love seeing the large shift NW on the UKMET. Still the lowest however still a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 hours ago, Freezing Drizzle said: Much obliged. Perhaps he meant that it was above freezing for an extended period during the snowfall before the lows for the day were reached. I think it started out near freezing early that Sunday morning. At some point it dropped into the 20s. Some of the old newspaper photos from western LI show insane drifting. Woke up to about 5" of fresh powdery snow this morning near Jackson, NH. About to head for the LI ferry; we're catching both storms 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 hours ago, WXNewton said: 12z NAM Kurchea Honestly this feels somewhat realistic not necessarily in totals but in terms of how jackpot will go. The best storm dynamics def favor long island and Jersey coast but you’ll get surprise banding in spots further west that will bump up totals in some areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I think it started out near freezing early that Sunday morning. At some point it dropped into the 20s. Some of the old newspaper photos from western LI show insane drifting. Woke up to about 5" of fresh powdery snow this morning near Jackson, NH. About to head for the LI ferry; we're catching both storms Yes. The temperature was 34° when the snow moved in. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Although its clear its going to be a beast, the big item too iron out is the diff. Between the US models which have the low further north than the rest of the field. The RAP/NAM/GFS/HRRR are north and 20 plus potential The remaining are a bit further south and 12 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Given the positive adjustments of Ukie and GGEM I’d say 12-18 for NYC likely. GFS/NAM likely too extreme but Euro is not the model it once was where I think it beats out everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: imagine the meltdowns if the 6z Euro verified... Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Nibor said: For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us. It’s very hard to forecast banding but there should be multiple bands that pivot in. Just look at this beautiful mid level lift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Although its clear its going to be a beast, the big item too iron out is the diff. Between the US models which have the low further north than the rest of the field. The RAP/NAM/GFS/HRRR are north and 20 plus potential The remaining are a bit further south and 12 plus. And we still may not know until tomorrow morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in. GFS and NAM are likely overdoing totals. I think the accumulations put out by the NWS are a good range. Maybe a slight adjustment upward, but those goofy totals put out by those two models aren’t likely to verify. 12-18, maybe 2 feet in Eastern sections with some jackpots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us. Agree although if it sets up in Catskills HV may get subsidence/shafted but that is a reality of these storms sometimes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts. The euro probably won't budge much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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