The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[RCNYILWX]

Agreed.  We here can imagine the possibilities without risk of being ridiculed for all eternity like he would be if he called for 30" and we ended up with 4.
Upton's unprecedented High End / Low End disparity of 24-30" at one end and 0.5" at the other is off putting to me.  I don't think I've seen even an 8" forecast storm with a 0.5" low end.  Whatever is driving that would spook me from putting any huge numbers up too.  You call for 15" and you get 25", no one will remember.  You call for 25" and get 0.5" , no one will forget, ever.

A few important aspects to keep in mind:
- There is no human intervention in that dataset. The underlying NWS NDFD forecast is applied to the WPC super ensemble data and does adjust the statistical spectrum a bit, but this is done automatically.

- There may be time lagging affecting the low end members of the super ensemble, with various inputs possibly being earlier model cycles.

- The above being said, given the extreme top end of the spectrum which we can see with the GFS (and many GEFS members) and NAM, those top end 90th percentile amounts are physically plausible, and again, automatically derived (with a ratio applied I believe).

- There is certainly a good deal less spread now than earlier today, but you'll still have some ensemble members that have much lower QPF at this range (and some of these may be from earlier cycles, as noted above). For this reason, the 10th percentile low end amount undeniably seems ridiculous given the extreme top end amounts, but in this case, the 10th percentile is not completely unreasonable. As spread decreases, that will most certainly come up on subsequent runs.

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[jm1220]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Very sorry for your loss 

my condolences to You and your family 

 

Thank you. Hopefully Long Beach gets the jackpot. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. 

So sorry about the loss of your mom.

WX/PT

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't buy the lighter precip with an intensifying storm. That seems to be a big difference between the snowier models vs the less snowy ones

Yea it’s not like the lower qpf models are showing huge totals south but less here they aren’t showing 2 inch liquid anywhere which is hard to buy in this setup.

[SACRUS]

 

2/21 00z GEFS

 

Total QPF Mean 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

Now 10:1

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

So sorry about the loss of your mom.

WX/PT

Thank you. You have no idea how crazy she thought I was walking to the boardwalk or wherever during any big snowstorm lol. 

[Blizzardo]

I dont think I am making the euro. I aint 28 anymore...lmao

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

I dont think I am making the euro. I aint 28 anymore...lmao

I will be here till 5am

[David-LI]

That's insane GEFS snow totals. I don't think I have ever seen that on an ensemble.

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thank you. Hopefully Long Beach gets the jackpot. 

Damn JM. My condolences to you and your family.  Now I'll be rooting hard for a LB jackpot. 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF:  1.5 / 14.1
NAM: 2.3 / 22.3
ICON: 1.8 / 16.7
RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2
GFS: 1.9 / 19.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16
GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5
UKMET: 1.0 / 11
GEFS: 2.1 / 20.5

Updated with the GEFS mean QPF / snow 10:1

[Rjay]

First day I've run out of reactions on here.  That's a pretty stupid feature. 

[mattinpa]

3 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

I dont think I am making the euro. I aint 28 anymore...lmao

I joined here at 33 and am now 49. But still am a night owl which is good in cases like this. 

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

That's insane GEFS snow totals. I don't think I have ever seen that on an ensemble.

 

Not in the 48 - 60 hour range , not that i can recall

[Rjay]

Just now, mattinpa said:

I joined here at 33 and am now 49. But still am a night owl which is good in cases like this. 

I want to like this post but this site is dumb. 

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

I dont think I am making the euro. I aint 28 anymore...lmao

This might be the one to stay up for.

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

First day I've run out of reactions on here.  That's a pretty stupid feature. 

Does it reset at midnight?

[TJW014]

Yeah, yeah, I'm using the NBM here, but these numbers are just incredible.
Pretty awesome site: NBM 1D Viewer

[Snowpsycho]

On what forum did Ji and DT go at it constantly. I remember they were like a comedy team. DT was a bully lol. Sorry for the off topic stuff. 

[Blizzardo]

Just now, Nibor said:

This might be the one to stay up for.

I know....

[dmillz25]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

First day I've run out of reactions on here.  That's a pretty stupid feature. 

Didn’t know that was even a thing lol

[SACRUS]

Just now, Snowpsycho said:

On what forum did Ji and DT go at it constantly. I remember they were like a comedy team. DT was a bully lol. Sorry for the off topic stuff. 

 

Wright Weather or Eastern - good ol days

[Blizzardo]

Just now, Snowpsycho said:

On what forum did Ji and DT go at it constantly. I remember they were like a comedy team. DT was a bully lol. Sorry for the off topic stuff. 

i remember Ji on eastern

[rclab]

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. 

Even though the well of tears never runs dry, a mother’s love can never die. May you find peace in your sorrow. As always …..

[David-LI]

At least this storm will be easier to clean compared to the last one. It's just that you're going to get a few inches on your porch and a mountain of 40" on your garage or kitchen door, or the other way around depending what direction your house faces.

[brooklynwx99]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. 

sorry man, that's awful

[brooklynwx99]

i hope that you guys are aware that you are watching a borderline BDB level resurgence

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, rclab said:

Even though the well of tears never runs dry, a mother’s love can never die. May you find peace in your sorrow. As always …..

Thank you so much. I'm reminiscing right now about all the conversations we had before/when these storms would hit haha. And when I'd go outside starting in 1996. "Don't go out exploring!". She'd be fine doing things like making donuts on our intersection way after the storm was over haha. 

[hudsonvalley21]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thank you. You have no idea how crazy she thought I was walking to the boardwalk or wherever during any big snowstorm lol. 

Sorry for your loss. I’m sure she is watching from above and saying the same thing. Keep doing it in her honor. 

[[email protected]]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

I know....

Every ten years!