jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The best part is the models seem to be still trending towards the GFS. Yep absolutely, EPS and AIFS are a nuke. Really liking where things stand for a change. Pretty clear to me there’ll be 20”+ for at least some of us. 3-4” per hour for several hours and the storm isn’t in a rush to haul out of here. So glad the curse is finally ending. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. No, some of our best storms are the "surprise" ones. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: King Goofus I was just watching the news and they are only going with a few inches for the city. some forecasting folks are going to have egg on their faces if they don't fully evaluate this situation tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, jm1220 said: Yep absolutely, EPS and AIFS are a nuke. Really liking where things stand for a change. Pretty clear to me there’ll be 20”+ for at least some of us. 3-4” per hour for several hours and the storm isn’t in a rush to haul out of here. So glad the curse is finally ending. you are probably getting a blizzard warning 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: you are probably getting a blizzard warning He's 100% getting one even if this slips east a little. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rjay said: He's 100% getting one even if this slips east a little. i'm so hype man. we needed this 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. Once Hochul and Sherrill declare a state of emergency by this time tomorrow, people will become aware of it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/20 18z Summary Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24 SFRE F: 1.0 NAM: 2.3 RGEM: 0.6 ICON: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.5 GFS: 2.2 GEFS: 1.7 EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 EURO : 0.8 Updated 1.4 avg (mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. Yeah the stores were crazy 3 days out with that one. Today was quiet. Meaning tomorrow will be especially nuts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i'm so hype man. we needed this Haha yea. And to play devils advocate, this could slip a little east but we're arent going to lose the storm completely. Most of us are a lock for 6"+. I think this is a HECS. The mid-level low positions are perfect. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: you are probably getting a blizzard warning The sustained winds on the 18Z GFS MOS are crazy. Its not often you see 30s on there. MOS guidance tends to run low on sustained winds often times in deep lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: Once Hochul and Sherrill declare a state of emergency by this time tomorrow, people will become aware of it. They declare States of Emergency for storms less severe then this one is forecasted to be I think it has something to do with receiving federal money if they need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[email protected] Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Just wild trends all day long on all guidance. This is 2010 Boxing Day redux! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, nycsnow said: Tucked 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 For reference round timeframes for model runs for those new to this: 00z / 12Z SREF: 7:30 PM / AM NAM: 8:50 PM / AM RGEM: 10:00 PM / AM ICON: 9:50 PM / AM GFS: 10:30 PM / AM GFS AI AIGFS: 10:30 PM / AM GGEM: 10:40 PM / AM UKMET: 11:05PM / AM GEFS: 11:30 PM / AM Euro: 12:30AM / PM Euro AI AIFS: 12:40 AM / PM Shorter range models now coming into play within 84 - 60 - 48 RRFS H NAM 3k HRR RPM HRW HRDPA (Canadian) 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, [email protected] said: This is 2010 Boxing Day redux! Boxing day felt different for me bc the cave was even closer in. And the storm happening around Christmas just added to the magical feeling. Edit: also being younger helped too 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[email protected] Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rjay said: Boxing day felt different for me bc the cave was even closer in. And the storm happening around Christmas just added to the magical feeling. Most dramatic favorable late shift since then? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Boxing day felt different for me bc the cave was even closer in. And the storm happening around Christmas just added to the magical feeling. Edit: also being younger helped too i think that this is arguably even more impressive. this is 15 years later and the only model that really showed this being a legit hit inside of 5 days was the GFS and every model bowed down to it. literally like Tony wrote a script 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rjay said: Boxing day felt different for me bc the cave was even closer in. And the storm happening around Christmas just added to the magical feeling. and you can take a stroll down memory lane if you go back to the beginning of this forum here - all documented 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 13 minutes ago, Rjay said: Bc that storm was consistently shown on models for many days leading up to the event. In this case you have every model trending towards the shitty gfs that no one trusted. Good point. Imagine the panic tomorrow if warnings go up for 12-18"+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Wow. And look at all of those west leaning lows. This may tuck even more. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Tucked Speechless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, [email protected] said: Most dramatic favorable late shift since then? Probably 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Not as wet as you think (verbatim). . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, jdj5211 said: Wow. And look at all of those west leaning lows. This may tuck even more. . most west of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: i think that this is arguably even more impressive. this is 15 years later and the only model that really showed this being a legit hit inside of 5 days was the GFS and every model bowed down to it. literally like Tony wrote a script Fair point. The euro never showed anything from this until yesterday evening. That's actually crazy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[email protected] Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Woo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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